CAPE

EPS is still pretty much a train wreck, although it looks slightly better towards D15. If there is a way out of this crap pattern, it wont come in the next 10 days (broken record). Maybe the last few days of February can be salvaged, otherwise March will have to be the savior.

0z GEFS doesn't dump as much energy into the AK trough, then weakens and retros it in the LR. End result is a trough near the Aleutians and a very nicety placed PNA ridge and potentially active southern stream. There are -850 temp anomalies in eastern Canada and along the US east coast with no SE ridge. Not super cold but no torch either. This has been your daily glimmer of hope in this winter of doom. I am sure this is happening.

Even if its a few hundred miles south. What a winter.

I spent an hour in my muddy yard/flower beds today pulling out little weedy things- chickweed and stuff. Then I got bored and came inside for a beer. This winter is easily the worst in recent memory. Altho my memory sometimes fails me lol.

NNE can still do okay. Otherwise, yeah. One day we(collectively) might all learn to stop hunting for snowstorms in patterns that are the antithesis of what is required for snow here. What fun would that be though?

HH GFS has an impressive heavy rain band centered on I-95 late week. Cant wait! Yet another classic cutter after that. We are so locked in.

The usual day or 2 of transient cold sure, but not cold leading in. A heck of a lot would have to change. Possible, but why would we think that would happen given the pattern persistence(+AO/+NAO/awful EPAC). The fact is that this is NOT a good set up, as currently advertised, for snow in this area. Frankly, it's terrible. A freaking disaster even. Georgia lucked out with a trailing wave. Could have been ours, but we cant seem to even sniff that this winter. Zero in the luck dept.

Pretty much caved at 12z.

Why the 20th? Kinda random. Pattern persistence would suggest it's over now(or 2 weeks ago). Otherwise, we are typically in the game through mid March.

What a shock.

The thing that will save us is a decent pattern- one that supports snow without requiring a hundred different elements in combination aligning perfectly in order for it to happen. Wait- never mind. That is the norm around here.

I spent some time up there last Summer. Went to Mt Washington. I love that area too, and I have a buddy who lives in Conway. Also like a lot of places in Vermont. I need to get to coastal Maine soon too. I have a feeling that area is going to really click with me. Not opposed to heading across the border (legally) and settling in New Brunswick or Nova Scotia either.

I really need to move. Might be able to make it happen in the next year. I am motivated.

Anyone care about the XFL? Will the retread version last longer than the original?

1/50 @ hour 300? Hot damn!

Always possible the advertised existence/strength/position of the AK vortex is wrong.

The AK vortex is going to flood Canada with Pac air. The advertised +PNA look towards the end of the GEFS would be completely impotent for our purposes if that look materializes. The 6z run this morning hinted at that trough retrograding towards the Aleutians. Not happening on the 12z run, and not on the EPS either. eta- As I said this morning, an optimist could evaluate the h5 look at the end of the GEFS run, and see the 'possibility' of the pattern becoming more favorable just beyond that period. Problem is, we have all been doing that for months, and it never happens. Maybe this time..

I have never been a believer in the late week deal. I am looking for signs of life down the line. There aren't many.

+PNA tho lol. EPS looks worse. Absolutely no signs of improvement in the LR. Shutout look.

Just takes everything to come together for one brief period. They have been in deep Spring down there for most of winter, but the needle was threaded today. Still a chance that happens here. Maybe in March.

Maybe we can get 5/50 EPS members to give us snow this run. Plenty of time for incremental improvement.

I dont buy outliers... Yeah I don't buy the CMC either.

Its about the same sensible weather wise. We aren't close to sniffing frozen.

I noticed you ignored my reply to your question(confusion), but if you look at the differences at h5 between 6z and 12z you have your answer. Minor shifts in depth/timing, and "new" pieces of energy dropping in can alter this fragile setup just enough. Any way you slice it, its marginal and a lot has to come together just right for it to work out.

We do when we have a +AO/NAO for sure. Uphill battle, unless we get some serious cooperation in the EPAC.