CAPE

I suppose dropping from off the charts + down to +2 qualifies as tanking this winter. It looks less positive briefly, but models have it going deep blue up top beyond that.

I even suggested we might have to make a thread. That doomed it, till now apparently lol.

I mentioned the potential for snow showers/squalls yesterday with the colder air moving in but it kinda disappeared.

I think the 12z GFS run might be a disaster but I need Ji to confirm.

Looks relatively quiet this week. Some showers ahead of the front, but otherwise dry. I'll take it.

I know you wanted to.

Only one warm rain event this week before we end it with another 2 day dry chill down. Progress.

The way I see it evolving(most likely) if that all too familiar advertised anomalous ridge in the PAC is real(pretty good bet), the trough out west will dig hard, and a ridge will build downstream behind the departing eastern cold. The only difference I see in the overall pattern is the ridging in Canada, which is rapidly losing amplitude at the end of the run as the AK and GL vortices reemerge/converge. Sure there might be a briefly "favorable" window in that mess for something, but we both know how likely it is to actually produce lol. eta- looking at the latest EPS run

@psuhoffman Sure we could still thread the needle with a flattish wave, perfectly timed with enough spacing, just as the cold is departing. But this upcoming pattern was supposed to be "different". It does not look that way though. It's just more of the same. Thats all I am saying.

The look at the end of the EPS run features yet another transient cold/dry shot behind a cutter, with a trough about to dig out west downstream of the biggest thorn in our side this winter. Rinse and repeat. We are seriously stuck lol.

Yeah I have made several posts about how fragile these potentially "good looks" are. It is what it is. Maybe we(some) will get lucky.

A winter like this underscores how important latitude is. Even the local western highlands cant escape the hostility of the pattern. Anyone who wants snow regardless of the pattern needs to relocate to the inter mountain west, or somewhere between Minnesota and Maine.

At least that low looks like it moves off the SE coast and spares us from a big coastal rainer.

Any relax in the ++NAO looks pretty darn temporary if the GEFS is correct lol. Guess we will find out if that western ridge is real/ how much impact it will have on our sensible weather heading into early March.

I know that's what the GEFS was forecasting. Not sure the EPS ever went to that look. I haven't been watching closely, but I think it has been generally keeping the forcing near the MC, but on the weak side. When is Mersky back? We need an expert up in here.

Oh I got it lol. It was 18 bucks I think. I wanted another one.

Enough so we continue to see some hope on the guidance. Glass half full. You may notice that some of the more positive posts in the LR thread often coincide with happy hour.

Only place I have seen the 120 on tap is at DFH in Rehoboth. They also have an aged WWS, but it ain't cheap lol.

The period I was looking at was when the legit cold moves in on Thursday evening I think. There is another vort max that moves in after that too. We can reevaluate coming up shortly. If it looks promising, we can start a thread.

I know. I was being facetious. I think I ended up with a half inch of slop here. eta- that 89 storm was historic in my book. 7" of cold powder here, and big amounts all the way to the beaches. That winter ofc featured a stunning pattern reversal unfortunately. Great Dec though.

What? Where? Last historic snowstorm in Nov here was 1989.

That's what I figured. I took plenty of shots of ice on the bay, esp 2014. I would think Feb 2015 was below avg even for DC. Kinda thought there might have been one DJFM month with negative departures since those winters, but maybe not.

Below "normal" in November is about as good as having a cold April. When was the last time a winter month had negative departures?

Maybe a sneaky snow shower/squall event later this week. Quite a bit of UL energy rotating down with our next winter-like excursion. Only thing I see that is remotely trackable lol.

From the Mount Holly AFD this morning, lol. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overview... Find something you love as much as the AO loves being in the positive phase. With most of the hemisphere`s available Arctic air remaining trapped near the pole, a very familiar pattern sets up for the long term as an initially quasi-zonal pattern over the CONUS gives way to a renewed Southeast ridge and a trough over the Plains and Great Lakes.