CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Is something like that even meteorologically possible anymore?
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Yeah it looks like we are going to have a weak Nina or a cold neutral during winter at this juncture. This is recent stuff, from a few days ago- https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume
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^Easy to imagine how this will go. That EPAC ridge/downstream trough position looks precarious.. but a monster -NAO will save us this time! I wont bother posting it because it sucks beyond words, but the CanSIPS has the h5 look that will probably be much closer to reality, based on our recent run.
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CFS has been on a "good" run lately with looks like these. No qualifiers necessary. We all know the deal with long range climate models.
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Lets get this (pity) party started.
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The source of the map I posted is the US Drought Monitor, and the map was released on June 11. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
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A few areas of 'abnormally dry' have developed in the region. None in VA btw. This will likely become more expansive over the next week.
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Significant areas with only 80-95% of normal over a 90 day period? that's some serious shiit. My yard is only at 115. I am beginning to worry.
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Did it actually snow before Jan 21? Oh yeah, I somehow managed to pick up a half inch at some point.
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Mid Atlantic Fail Index.
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Here is one- although it is 4 letters. MAFI. It is almost always extremely positive.
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That MD/DE map has some flaws in it. While interior and upper portions of the Delmarva away from the coast(and not close to either bay) tend to get more snow locally- 18" or so is about right- places right along the coast are too high on that map. More like 10-12" along the immediate coast, including Lewes. Also that area in NE MD near the bay is exaggerated way too low imo. Easton does not average more snow than Elkton.
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Roses are red. violets are blue There is no such thing as normal Especially when it comes to you
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Get creative psu. You owe us a poem. In an attempt to make yet another pointless Tenman thread epic, it has been hijacked. We are generally keeping the "what went wrong" theme however.
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Can you put this in the form of a poem? Thanks!
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Stratospheric vortex, consolidated Tightly wound ball of doom Weather weenies migrate to the panic room Bring it to an end The limitless winter gloom
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This is true, but let me help you with the rhyming part... Living in the Mid-Atlantic is what went wrong Move north where winters are cold and long Without lots of luck, winters here are brief, and suck
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For snow, negative AO is number one In absence, an EPO ridge may mitigate Otherwise DCA is done
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You are in a groove.
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Poetry section starts here. Go!
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You answered it all in your op. No one knows. It's in the hands of god. NWP is useless hocus-pocus. end thread/
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Another awful Tenman thread. Poetry?
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Just to expand the futility area a bit, Philly is at 0.3". Their worst snowfall season was 1972-73, recording a trace. As of now, this winter would rank second, just ahead of 1997-98, with 0.8".
