CAPE
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We only care about the NAO during the winter, so this historical series gives you a good idea of the long term values. NAO has been predominately in the +phase during the winter months over the last 50 years, with generally more instances of strongly positive episodes in winter compared to prior periods. With the recent unfavorable trends in the Pacific patterns during winter, we might be phucked in the MA for awhile. Go north. None of this stuff matters much relative to cold and snow up in NH.
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Is something like that even meteorologically possible anymore?
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Yeah it looks like we are going to have a weak Nina or a cold neutral during winter at this juncture. This is recent stuff, from a few days ago- https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume
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^Easy to imagine how this will go. That EPAC ridge/downstream trough position looks precarious.. but a monster -NAO will save us this time! I wont bother posting it because it sucks beyond words, but the CanSIPS has the h5 look that will probably be much closer to reality, based on our recent run.
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CFS has been on a "good" run lately with looks like these. No qualifiers necessary. We all know the deal with long range climate models.
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Lets get this (pity) party started.
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The source of the map I posted is the US Drought Monitor, and the map was released on June 11. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
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A few areas of 'abnormally dry' have developed in the region. None in VA btw. This will likely become more expansive over the next week.
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Significant areas with only 80-95% of normal over a 90 day period? that's some serious shiit. My yard is only at 115. I am beginning to worry.
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Did it actually snow before Jan 21? Oh yeah, I somehow managed to pick up a half inch at some point.
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Mid Atlantic Fail Index.
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Here is one- although it is 4 letters. MAFI. It is almost always extremely positive.
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That MD/DE map has some flaws in it. While interior and upper portions of the Delmarva away from the coast(and not close to either bay) tend to get more snow locally- 18" or so is about right- places right along the coast are too high on that map. More like 10-12" along the immediate coast, including Lewes. Also that area in NE MD near the bay is exaggerated way too low imo. Easton does not average more snow than Elkton.
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Roses are red. violets are blue There is no such thing as normal Especially when it comes to you
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Get creative psu. You owe us a poem. In an attempt to make yet another pointless Tenman thread epic, it has been hijacked. We are generally keeping the "what went wrong" theme however.
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Can you put this in the form of a poem? Thanks!
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Stratospheric vortex, consolidated Tightly wound ball of doom Weather weenies migrate to the panic room Bring it to an end The limitless winter gloom
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This is true, but let me help you with the rhyming part... Living in the Mid-Atlantic is what went wrong Move north where winters are cold and long Without lots of luck, winters here are brief, and suck
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For snow, negative AO is number one In absence, an EPO ridge may mitigate Otherwise DCA is done
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You are in a groove.
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Poetry section starts here. Go!
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You answered it all in your op. No one knows. It's in the hands of god. NWP is useless hocus-pocus. end thread/
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Another awful Tenman thread. Poetry?
