CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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They definitely need to win the turnover battle, not kill themselves with penalties, and get a few breaks.
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Dobbins, Ingram, and Brandon Williams eligible to play. Williams probably won't though with the ankle. The RG3 to Dez connection! They will probably still lose, but it may be competitive if the D and running game can play complimentary football.
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I chatted with Mitchnick this morning.
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Sipping on a 120, because why not?
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Better than atmospheric memory. We really need it to forget.
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lol he is so awful.
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The NAO 'goes like +2' every winter. Not interesting. Now a -2 otoh..
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So you are predicting a neutral-slightly negative NAO overall for the winter months?
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That is one impressively large area of "warm" 2m temp anomalies. Not sure I would pay much attention to that 4-6 weeks out. Advertised h5 height anomalies are probably marginally better at that range, but still plenty of uncertainty.
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Pretty decent fwiw. I tend to take a peak at the week beyond D15, just to see how things look. All low skill at that range ofc. Latest Euro weeklies are meh, at least from what I can glean from the really bad h5 graphics on the freebie site. Probably similar enough to the GEFS for the first week or so of Dec, but has at least some weak ridging in the east.
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QBO phase influences the strength of the SPV. The impacts it has on the stratosphere do not necessarily couple down to the troposphere. The TPV and SPV are distinctly separate entities.
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Here we go. This is our chance to thread a needle. (Please disregard surface temps)
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I strongly agree with this. Every so often you say something that makes sense.
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Hard to argue. Not much to be optimistic about, other than dumb luck. We due!
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SSW talk is usually a hail mary. Bad sign if this is seriously being discussed at this juncture.
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Extended GEFS looks similar for early Dec. It had this look for mid to late November then lost it. Keeps kicking the can on any decent HL look. We will see. At best it will probably be a period of transient ridging(bootleg -NAO) IMO. If something like this were to verify, it might give us some seasonably chilly weather for a stretch, but given the look in the EPAC/N of AK, the air mass would be more Pacific in origin.
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Well this is probably how it will go. A few relatively brief cold periods with maybe some luck. Or not. We are streaky with the luck part.
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Latest EURO weeklies (crappy freebie) panel for the day. Weekly mean h5 height anomalies, for Dec 7-14. FWIW.
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That sorta matches the current CFS runs, which have kicked the can from previous runs depicting Dec into January being more favorable.
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Eh, you will see 10-12" by accident there.
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Your yard or mine? Even my yard I wouldn't take the bet though lol. I think I had 0.8" last winter.
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You don't think I know this? That is a quote representative of the consensus, not me lol.
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Need to find me some WWS for winter. Probably will pick up a few 120s while they are still around.
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SC climo.
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"It can't get any worse than last winter".
