CAPE

Since it is pretty clear we are heading towards a weak Nina for the winter at this juncture, how many weak Ninas/cold neutrals(just to expand a bit) over say the last 50 or so years have featured a -AO/-NAO for at least a third of the winter? Not that this correlates to above normal snowfall because we already know it doesn't the majority of the time with a Nina. Just trying to gauge the prospects of at least somewhat mitigating what will probably be a less than favorable Pacific, to at least improve the odds for some decent cold periods, and perhaps luck into a few well timed fluke events. Not that we will ever actually see a -AO/NAO in winter again lol.

Sorta like my bigfoot(Daryl) analogy with a -NAO.

Likely depends on the strength of the Nina. A moderate to strong Nina and +QBO likely eliminates any chance of HL blocking. A cold neutral/weak Nina AND a severely negative QBO may allow for either some HL blocking episodes or some favorable EPO periods, providing a mechanism for cold outbreaks in the east. PSU is saying his research finds no correlation, during a Nina winter, specifically between QBO and snowfall for the MA.

Not surprising. As I have said, the QBO correlations seem nebulous, but in theory it impacts the strength of PV, and thus potentially the AO/NAO phases, so I would expect to see better correlation(-QBO) during a Nino, when HL blocking episodes are more prevalent (and we tend to get more snow).

CFS is on one of its better "runs" lately, Big picture h5 for Dec and Jan look pretty decent, and is a 'believable' look for a typical weak Nina. Feb doesn't look bad either, but with the massive +height anomalies it has in the EPAC, there would probably be more of a ridge in the east, although it also suggests a -NAO lol.

This area rarely sees big snow totals from a Nina, but can do ok with smaller events and scraps, and sometimes make it to average. That is a hell of a lot better than the crap we dealt with last winter. Ofc you have to completely tune out the fact that places further north are getting hammered from miller Bs while our region mostly gets jipped. We are who we are here, and we sure as fuuck aren't NNE.

This is pretty much how it went in 2017-18. The early Jan period was memorable for folks in the eastern MA, esp right along the coast with the blizzard. The snow also stayed around for a week or so with the cold, before moderating a bit.

Something to keep in mind with the general gloom and doom/early predictions for a warm winter- wrt the "new" normal/base state of the Pacific, in conjunction with a Nina, it doesn't necessarily translate to a crap winter. The last Nina we had was just 3 years ago, and it did produce a very respectable cold period, the bomb cyclone, and for some of us, normal snowfall. My yard was literally right at or maybe a tad above average. Point being these changes in the Pacific certainly existed to some extent then, and this stuff waxes and wanes each season even if the general trend is headed in an 'unfavorable' direction going forward. Nina winters can be an exercise in frustration wrt snowfall for the MA, but an anomalous cold period. even in an overall warmish winter, does happen- we just need to time it up and get lucky.

The most reliable indicators we have about the character of winter are ofc ENSO, and then the recent persistence of the background state in the Pacific. At this point its hard not to have visions of a persistent pig ridge sitting over the EPAC exactly where we don't want it.

Chuck needs to expand on the stock market/crude oil correlation to the global weather patterns. He might be on to something. Probably cant be any worse than the SAI/AO bullshit.

The PDO seems to be heading back to a predominately negative phase, and it might stay that way for a while. I never know what to think of it anyway, as it is clearly a response to multiple influences, and not an atmospheric driver itself. Most of the patterns/temp/precip anomalies that the PDO is associated with, have a stronger correlation to the ENSO state itself. So I suppose it is an enhancer/moderator in certain cases. We have had a recent tendency for a massive ridge in the EPAC/suppression of the Aleutian low, and combined with SST anomaly persistence, seems to argue for negative phase. The ENSO has an impact on the elements that drive the PDO (like the Aleutian low). Looking at the distribution of SSTs associated with the -/+ PDO phases, it seems logical that the cool phase should be generally favored in a Nina, and vise versa, esp during stronger ENSO events. Ofc it doesn't always work out this way.

Maybe after a few 120s and some weed.

Jeez stop engaging in the weather channel's absurd winter storm naming crap.

This looks like crap, Chuck.

Ofc any serious talk of a -NAO during winter is like chasing Bigfoot at this juncture.

You can see it if it persists on the means. It is rarely modeled well in advance though. Also a transient ridge passing through the NAO domain really isn't a NA block. The difference there is a thread the needle deal vs having persistence in forcing the storm track below us.

It will advertise plenty of -NAOs in the day 25+ range.

lol you are looking at it. The FV3 is the upgrade and it became operational last year. The corresponding GEFS upgrade is now experimental- the GEFS Para available on TT. I made a couple posts on the GEFS upgrade in the disco thread a few days ago. The 0z run goes out to hr 840! I know you like that feature.

Probably varies, but in general the DC area doesn't do any better than average with snowfall in either case. See PSU's post on the previous page.

Old news. CPC/NCEP issued the watch a month or so ago.

You suck at trolling. Maybe give up?

Summary of ENSO update as of yesterday(8/10)... Looks like cold neutral/borderline weak Nina is most likely for winter at this juncture. Could work out ok. We can do median/mean snowfall with some help elsewhere. Anyone expecting KUs will ofc be checking in to the panic room luxury resort fairly quickly.

Its a bit of a struggle this early for sure. Shit posters fill in the dead time though, so we good.

For the most part yes. I know you saw his attempt to troll psu yesterday morning, as it was removed. It was quite elaborate for him.

Ha I wasn't even considering Phin in that post. We all mess around and engage in good natured trolling. Helps keep the sanity. Some do overreact to the benign stuff though. Mersky is another story. Pure shit poster.