CAPE

Remember the PNA ridge? I pointed this out the other day on both the GEFS and GEPS- although they both were attempting to build a +PNA on the means, the tendency for h5 heights to quickly build back further west was also notable. Well, look at the latest runs. This should hardly come as a shock lol. I am not a believer in the HL region becoming favorable and mitigating the crappy Pacific. The +AO/NAO has been very stable, and although it may relax a bit, not sure it will be enough to make a meaningful difference. The most notable ridging "up top" on the GEFS in the LR is over central Canada/Hudson Bay. Been there this winter.

I am far from convinced we are going to see a significantly better look up top going forward, other than something very transient like we have seen from time to time. If the recent MJO forecasts are reasonable, maybe we can get a less hostile Pacific over the coming weeks. Latest GEFS runs seem to be leaning a bit more towards the GEPS look in the LR, which is still crappy in the HL, but not awful overall with a somewhat less hostile Pacific. Generally it's a very fragile looking and ambiguous pattern as advertised on the means currently, imo. Difficult to figure just how it might evolve(if at all), but we will probably know in a few days whether the pattern is actually moving towards something different or not.

Probably my post yesterday saying I had a morbid interest in next week. That must have done it. lol. The GEFS did look pretty good for a couple runs. For the record, I am no longer morbidly interested. Otherwise, yeah things never looked very promising until the end of the month- IF the advertised pattern change is real.

Savor the next couple days. Mid teens tomorrow night. Then back in the 50s with another cutter next week. DW our time will come. March. Next March, for sure.

I think a coating of snow from a suppressed, strung out mess the 12z Euro gave to NC late next week has some folks shook up in here.

Drink a beer and check back in 30 mins or so.

lol

Only place with less snow is the Gulf coast. I hope that wave juices up a bit to give the Carolinas a decent event. It really is a weak POS as modeled.

This is probably the period to watch.

That's why I said it had the right idea lol. I am not expecting some perfectly timed wave to deliver, just as the NS is in the process of lifting out. I mean, it's not impossible, and we have seen some recent runs suggest it, although the likelihood of it being weak and or suppressed would be high. Until there is something notably different with the pattern, I would expect the same results. Hopefully we see some of those changes right around the end of the month.

GFS has the right idea. Wait a couple days and bring it out so we can continue the theme.

Seen this before? lol Hard to buy into anything more than a transient NA ridge until we see persistence on the guidance in near real time. We have seen this several times on long range guidance this winter, and it disappears. Of note, the GEPS still likes the blue up top in the LR, and a western trough.

Maybe the usual warm season -NAO will develop a little earlier this year- when it might actually be useful.

At least HH delivered a little. Hard to ask for more in this dismal winter as we near the end.

No, it wont. It will be a day or so later and it will cut.

Agree. It is the GFS/GEFS though. I started getting an oddly "good" feeling about this after the 6z run this morning.

If this is even close to reality, you are golden, and most of the rest of us are fighting for our frozen lives.

^ It's more inevitable than ever this winter, in this pattern. Ofc, it may be shifting just a bit..

Simply not engaging him is the answer. It is quite easy to do.

18z GEFS kinda likes late next week.

I think it means based on observations of the surface pressures observed in that area over a specific period of time, in order to arrive at a mean. eta- I think I am pretty close. This is from the CPC: The loading pattern of the AO is defined as the leading mode of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of monthly mean 1000mb height during 1979-2000 period.

There is a strong correlation. The AO index actually is a measure of surface pressure near the pole. We want to see higher pressure there. (-AO) The SPV does not always couple to the TPV, but it has this winter. Generally speaking, a strong PV tends to keep the cold air locked up in the HL regions, and outside of a big EPO ridge, it becomes very difficult to get legit cold air delivery into the mid-latitudes.

Absolutely. We want to see multiple weak little baby vortices scattered about, not one consolidated blob of purple doom.

Speaking of which, might be seeing just the beginning of a bit of warming from the Atlantic side at the end of the Euro op run today. 50 mb is as low as we have on WB, but might be fairly indicative of whats happening in the upper troposphere. It is becoming more elongated/tilted here than the previous panels. Still, look at that beast. What an absolute monster the PV has been this winter.

I had a feeling it was headed there looking at the 0z run. It has not been as enthusiastic about building a PNA ridge- it flirts with neutral then wants to build heights further west again. GEFS and at times the GEPS seem to like the idea of a more favorable western ridge position. Maybe the EPS is on to something and we get a nice HL block for March to counter the crappy Pacific.