CAPE

Judah suggesting we might have good golfing weather in the east for the first part of Jan. @leesburg 04 Thaw!

EURO Weeklies for around the same time.

Extended GEFS suggests its temporary. Keep in mind the latest run is from 0z yesterday.

As for the NYE/day "threat", EPS says nope(maybe one member suggestive of frozen). GEFS has 6 or 7, with a couple nice hits.

GEFS has been trending that way for a few runs now. EPS still looks ok, but we all know the PAC is precarious, and we also know a gigantic, perfectly placed, sustained west based -NAO is not likely to materialize and completely save us. We are going to have to navigate a pattern with warts in the coming weeks, and hopefully we get a few chances, just like always.

Extraordinarily so. And the GFS has been on a cutter bender lately.

Maybe. Most guidance says I might have to drive south to see a flizzard.

Can we get just a couple flakes here? A dusting maybe? lol.

18z GFS continues the cutter parade.

Don't we need some actual cold before we can have a thaw?

SPV is MIA at the end of the GEPS run.

Evolving pattern. Patience!

Not bad at D10. Gets a lot better after that. Not in love with the Pac look on the mean towards the end of the run. Still suggestive of too much energy dumping/amplifying out west. Better look than the GEFS though. Hopefully we end up in a good place rolling that forward, and the extended GEFS and CFS have the right idea with a more favorable look in the EPO domain.

Generally agree with your assessment. EPS looks pretty decent at h5. Looking at the individual members there are a handful that have a moderate snow event during that window similar to the op,. Idk, a weakish signal for something day 10?

With not a lot of cold around, this is a "safe" way to get a moderate event for the lowlands. Actually need the NS energy to suppress the SS wave some. Ofc it just happens to work out that way this run, but plenty of other variations are possible.

15%

Just cracked open a 2018 G I Bourbon County Stout.

Looks a bit more interesting today to me. Nothing interesting on the 12z GFS. Surprised Ji wasn't in here yelling DISASTER. Other than the snow showers tomorrow, it doesn't have a single digital flake east of the mountains through day 15 lol.

I got one out of two. Good enough. Cheers!

What time does HH begin on Xmas eve? Asking for a friend.

Sustain the -AO and we will get the cold air as we move into the heart of winter, as long as the Pac isn't a dumpster fire. If the SWE is legit, that bodes well for continuation of HL blocking.

Latest CFS runs look interesting in a couple weeks. Nice improvement in the EPO region. That look would deliver some cold.

I think the persistence of the -AO as we move forward into our colder climo period is the key for getting some decent cold down here. If the EPO/WPO stays positive, a bit of PNA ridge at the right time may help keep energy from digging in too far west and amplifying. The (apparently) inevitable SWE is also a wildcard that may shuffle the longwave pattern some. I am hoping it primarily reinforces the -AO and the tendency for blocking. If the Nina is on the decline, maybe we get a bit of help in the EPO domain going forward.

Still waiting for the NA block to evolve, and park in the ideal position. Then we can start to get an idea how effective it will be in mitigating the less than favorable Pacific. We should know in about 10 days!

Kind of interesting how most guidance is placing a snow shower/squall across S MD over to the lower eastern shore Xmas evening. Might have to do a flizzard chase.