CAPE

Sustain the -AO and we will get the cold air as we move into the heart of winter, as long as the Pac isn't a dumpster fire. If the SWE is legit, that bodes well for continuation of HL blocking.

Latest CFS runs look interesting in a couple weeks. Nice improvement in the EPO region. That look would deliver some cold.

I think the persistence of the -AO as we move forward into our colder climo period is the key for getting some decent cold down here. If the EPO/WPO stays positive, a bit of PNA ridge at the right time may help keep energy from digging in too far west and amplifying. The (apparently) inevitable SWE is also a wildcard that may shuffle the longwave pattern some. I am hoping it primarily reinforces the -AO and the tendency for blocking. If the Nina is on the decline, maybe we get a bit of help in the EPO domain going forward.

Still waiting for the NA block to evolve, and park in the ideal position. Then we can start to get an idea how effective it will be in mitigating the less than favorable Pacific. We should know in about 10 days!

Its almost exactly the same everywhere east of the mountains(a bit less out there at 18z).

18z Euro has the localized S MD/Lower Eastern shore snow band that most other guidance has Xmas evening.

Wind! Outside of heat, we can do some impressive wind, esp in winter. Mount Holly- Winds between 925 mb-850 mb will average 80-90 kt Thursday night, but there should be a decent enough inversion to keep the strongest winds aloft. However, with heavy rain, most of those winds will mix down, especially along the coastal areas. With the LLJ now tracking a bit farther west than previously shown, will spread some of the stronger winds back to the west as well. Currently expecting 60-70 mph winds along the barrier island of New Jersey and into coastal portions of mainland New Jersey, as well as along the Delaware beaches in Sussex county, Delaware. Going farther to the west, maximum wind gusts will range from 45-55 mph back through most of New Jersey, Delaware, and into Philadelphia and western suburbs. Will go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for coastal New Jersey and the immediate Atlantic facing Delaware coast. Will hoist a Wind Advisory for the I-95 corridor of New Jersey, Philadelphia and western suburbs, and the rest of Delaware and the eastern shores of Maryland.

Kind of interesting how most guidance is placing a snow shower/squall across S MD over to the lower eastern shore Xmas evening. Might have to do a flizzard chase.

It will go in the books as warm. Probably 50s if not 60s for the morning "high". Front looks legit though. Probably wont hit freezing most places on Saturday.

Then take a blowtorch and char the outside.

Yeah I mentioned this in the banter thread after the 18z GFS run yesterday. Had a nice band all the way to the coast. Just missed my yard by a few miles verbatim. Maybe the Mesos will pin down the exact location over the next several runs- or take it away lol.

We don't always do winter around here, but when we do, it is usually backloaded. Even DT was predicting the back end of winter to be colder/snowy for the MA, before he started hyping the upcoming pattern as the best since 1996.

TYVM!

We have an evolving pattern. A little patience is probably a good thing.

Yeah we don't need to wait for blocking to break down and hope we get an HECS. Enough with the Archambault crap. Just give me a pattern that increases the chances for a storm to track to our south and produce some snow. A sustained -NAO does that. Light snow, moderate snow- all good.

The Steelers getting their derailed train quickly back on track can help the Ravens cause immensely. I might throw up in my mouth a little, but I will be rooting for them hard the last 2 weeks. A win against the Colts or Browns, assuming the Ravens take care of their business, would put them in the playoffs. Alternatively, the Raiders beat Miami this week, or Buffalo doesn't rest all their key players the final week against the Dolphins and they win, would get them in.

Transient.

He would be praying for the GFS to show the mother of all cutters by early Feb.

Da fucck is going on here. A few miles to my south gets a flizzard and still not a flake imy!

The trailing energy after the main precip(rain) moves out is the thing to watch. Wont be anything widespread but possibly some hefty snow showers/squalls in places. GFS hinting at it, and the 12z 12Km NAM a bit. Have to watch the Mesos as we get closer.

NAM lookin good.

Wow a slush slinging twister.

I'm not sure Ji doesn't like fantasy snow more than actual snow. It seems to bring him more joy.

Ravens need to get in first. We need the Steelers to get their shit together. Their final 2 games are against the Colts and Browns. Ravens have the tiebreaker over both.

Average snowfall there is significantly higher. Elevation is over 4800 ft.