CAPE

Already hearing some around here.

Your attachments folder is probably at 100%. Delete stuff. Or... Copy and paste. I do it all the time.

I would have to go back and look but when i was still "interested" Monday and into Tuesday am, pretty sure the Euro was depicting 1-2" down that way. Maybe 12z yesterday was an off(drier) run. It has generally juiced up a little over the past 2 days for sure. This "cave" talk is mostly silliness though.

How exactly did the EURO cave? NAM is putting down ridiculous snow amounts. 0z Euro has a reasonable 1-4" verbatim.

Its ours. Nice fit.

Seems to be a bit of disagreement on the significance of the event. From Raleigh AFD- Snow amounts continue to remain highly uncertain in this event, however, thinking that raw model output remains way too high in this scenario. Several limiting factors remain at work, including: (1.) Persistent above freezing surface temperatures that will help temper/melt the majority of the snowfall. The exception to the rule may be areas closer to the VA/NC border, however, these are the areas that will likely see far less QPF throughout the event (2.) 10:1 snow to liquid ratios are not likely in an event like this, expect closer to 3:1 at precipitation changeover onset, 5:1 toward the middle of the event, and perhaps ending in vicinity of 10:1 if we are lucky. (3.) While the CAA process will be key in the original changeover, it will also become the ultimate limiting factor through the frozen ptype portion of the event. Gradual drying is expected to persistently take place in the lower-third of the boundary layer as the cold air slides south into the region. This will work to greatly reduce QPF from northwest to southeast in general. Higher amounts of QPF in the southeast will remain, however, dewpoints in the middle 30s will keep widespread snowfall accumulations from occurring. With these limiting factor in mind, have shifted the geographic location of accumulations a bit further north and west. Amounts are down a bit also with this run, topping out in the 1 - 2" range in northeastern Coastal Plain. From there, if you follow the US-64 further west, expect accumulations in vicinity of an inch with lesser amounts as you progress west of US-1 and south of US-64.

Productive LR discussion?

It has been a long time and they are rusty. Help them out.

We lookin' good overall.

It's dead , Jim.

HA that is a bit coincidental! He used to live in High Point, then moved out to Oak Ridge. Nice area.

Hope it works out. Btw my brother lives NW of Greensboro. Quite a storm there in Dec 2018. 14".

Yeah we are in the range now where we are not likely to see big changes. Looks like a pretty weak wave that will get kicked out without doing much damage, even for places further south. If I had to guess now I would say an inch or 2 for central/eastern NC would be the max.

I see 10 right off the bat that are 100% believable.

LOL. That 2018 storm was a true southern slider, and that's about the only similarity to what may happen later this week. That storm featured a juiced up wave moving into a much colder air mass with legit suppression, versus this weak strung out pos in a flat, progressive flow. That storm produced 10-15" of cold powder in central NC. At best this storm will produce a few sloppy inches in those areas. And yeah it is a long shot for our region, but still far enough out to monitor given some recent runs sharpening that vort. At best we are probably talking a period of light snow, maybe a coating, but we got little else to track in the next week to 10 days lol.

Me thinks he is trolling. And if he thinks the potential late week 'event' bears any resemblance to that ...

Not here. Dec 2017 we had a decent little event.

Except in July. Can never buy a raindrop then.

At this point the high bar is some light, insignificant snow from DC to Dover on the northern fringe. The max would be 1-3 inches down in NC to perhaps SE VA. This will not be much of a storm until offshore of the SE in all likelihood.

GFS is ever so slightly better. Probably noise.

Not as sharp/far west as the ICON at hour 72.

GFS looks a tad sharper at hour 60. Similar to the ICON.

This is what the GFS looked like at 12z. Lets see if it can do better for HH.

Yup. But its close. As was the EURO at 0z.

This is why the ICON looks good at the surface, and what I mentioned in my post above. This is the feature to watch.