CAPE

Well this is probably how it will go. A few relatively brief cold periods with maybe some luck. Or not. We are streaky with the luck part.

He will show up if/when there is a trackable "threat". So yeah, we may not see him in the next few months.

Latest EURO weeklies (crappy freebie) panel for the day. Weekly mean h5 height anomalies, for Dec 7-14. FWIW.

Ended up with 2.9". Not much additional rain today thankfully.

That sorta matches the current CFS runs, which have kicked the can from previous runs depicting Dec into January being more favorable.

As for alcohol consumption, there are options.

2.68" here so far. Looks like another half inch or so today.

Eh, you will see 10-12" by accident there.

Your yard or mine? Even my yard I wouldn't take the bet though lol. I think I had 0.8" last winter.

Euro control. Hour 1104. Oh yeah, that has a chance.

You don't think I know this? That is a quote representative of the consensus, not me lol.

0.66" here so far. Just showery now. Still looks like 2" or so with the next wave. Hoping for an under-performer again. Leaves everywhere!

Need to find me some WWS for winter. Probably will pick up a few 120s while they are still around.

SC climo.

"It can't get any worse than last winter".

Lost a lot of leaves the past couple days here. I will have plenty of work after the rain, some wind, and by the time it all dries out enough for the blower to work well. Got about an hour in yesterday with super dry leaves when I got home but the sun goes down early these days.

A lot of rain. At least we had a decent dry period around here. Veterans Day A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Patchy fog before 9am. High near 76. South wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 62. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible. Thursday Showers, mainly before 1pm. Temperature falling to around 58 by 5pm. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

I am not as smart as he is, but my thoughts have been that Jan is our best shot for cold air outbreaks, with a possible +PNA and or -EPO. I expect a big fat zero irt help in the AO/NAO domain, minus some very transient bootleg ridging(fake -NAO).

Impressive, but man is it fleeting. Hopefully it gets the job done(legit freeze).

Out strolling around Easton on this summer-like Fall day. If you are in town and want a fantastic salad, go to Sunflowers & Greens. Heading there now.

At this point I am just looking forward to some Fall days that actually feel like it. Feels like Florida out there today.

All subject to change at this range, but for now the GEFS, and the GEPS, are suggesting we may actually see seasonable temps the week of thanksgiving.

No. Always a mirage,

Closest we get to anything decent in the NA over the next 15 days is this period, and that is more of a Scandinavian ridge, not a -NAO. It's a better look than we have now though. It would likely give us normal to maybe slightly below temps, and that would probably continue into Thanksgiving at least. Looks dry too.