CAPE
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The AO trends basically neutral and the NAO slightly positive by the end of the month. Btw that area of +heights on the means focused in the WA is not exactly the block we want. 50-50 high!
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34 to 40 here. Down a degree to 39 now.
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Look at h5 vorticity/trough axis and orientation. The general idea going back a week or more was a trough going negative tilt to our west. I knew if that idea held, with ridging out in front, and a warm atlantic, my yard was fuucked.
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Yeah this makes no difference wrt sensible weather.The mid level warming is legit.
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Made some simple oven roasted brussel sprouts. Olive oil, salt, pepper, a touch of garlic powder, and a drizzle of Vermont maple syrup. Superb esp given minimum effort.
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WInd is cranking here now. Temp up to 40.
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Heavy snow shifts to NE PA/SE NY tonight. Those areas look good for 20"+.
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Temp up to 37 here with a half inch of rain so far. Wind picking up too.
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South central PA getting crushed. Altoona would have been the place to chase.
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Maybe the hint of a wave along the front as the cold comes in. Probably the usual cold chasing. Looks like we will at least be cold at this point, but probably dry.
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Rotate it on your phone and save, then upload.
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I guess it changed its mind lol. Meanwhile, still 34 here and finally some heavy rain. Been pretty lame up until now.
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Once it flips the snow is over, other than some really insignificant stuff on the backside. By the time the warm nose moves off and CAA commences, the heavy snow is well NE.
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And they puked out a healthy dose of brine on the primary roads over here, for rain lol. At least most of it will be washed away by morning.
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Still 34 here and ripping fatty raindrops. I'd feel better if it was 44. That's for later this evening. with maybe some thunder.
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I am in the hot air area that's feeding it.
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Good thing I skipped lunch.
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KBS Maple Mackinac Fudge Imperial Stout This might be the most chocolate prominent stout I have ever tried. Its freaking good. I feel like I need to hit the treadmill though.
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Pummelled?
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34 and rain. At least its not 33.
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Front enders usually fail here because the precip almost always arrives late, and the favorable temp profiles are long gone.
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Awesome look, if only the low wasn't driving north into the lower bay.
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How much rain for your yard? I am glad to see a bit of a precip min modeled over here. Maybe I can escape with an inch. The heavy stuff looks like it will be focused SE towards the immediate coast.
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28/22. Both of those numbers will be increasing significantly over the next several hours.
