CAPE

I might get tired of it by the end of next week if I don't actually see a few flakes. Or one, lets start with one.

18z GEFS mean is an inch or less for the Xmas miracle(aka CAPE) storm. I need to work on this.

Anafrontal Xmas miracle.. game still on.

Mount Holly's (new) quick take on late week.. they did say to stay tuned lol. A cold front associated with the low will cross the area, ending the warmer temperatures and bringing a sudden return to Winter. Rains will likely change to snow and some accumulations are possible later Thu night and into Friday. Still a week away, so exact details will have to wait until we get closer, but this could affect travel during the upcoming holiday.

Mostly cloudy today with a high of 34. This what a mid December day should feel like. 32 now.

Some snow TV I guess. Hard to know with the 6 hour panels and the WB wonkiness with surface/snowfall maps. Abrupt change in temps pre-post front too.

Cambridge lol.

lol it gets bigger just after that. I was trying to capture the Xmas frontal deal.

Not bad for late next week. eta- some of that falls early in the week for the western highlands.

Very similar to the 0z Euro. We got time for correction.

Of course. Everyone should. You know if I am posting anything from a LR op run its just for fun, lol.

And then this.. Dw it will trend colder with that mega block...and be a great snowstorm for NC.

The anafrontal Xmas miracle is happening.. Remember, I called the white Xmas a couple weeks ago. @WxUSAF knows.

I am so grateful someone posted a snow map for an event 6 days away.

Actually had a flash freeze here yesterday morning. Cold came in quick as the last bit of rain was falling.

It just wants to rain here...a fart it all it takes.

The jet streak position is favorable(LF quad) and there is some moisture. Surface temps and timing probably the biggest issues for getting a skiff of snow..

Shortwave is a tad better on the 12z GFS.

Yeah its embarrassing. I don't understand why they had to blow up the whole look/functionality just because Flash support is done. Use another runtime app/plugin but keep the same general interface and features.

Yeah if the AO cooperates we should be ok with cold that's 'good enough' as we move forward. Interestingly, the extended GEFS has suggested the WPO/EPO go negative from time to time, but then it backs off. When it has had that look though, the NA is also pretty good, and the overall h5 pattern looks remarkably favorable. lol probably why it keeps losing it- very unlikely to verify unless the Nina craps out.

Mount Holly: nothing to see here, but stay tuned, just in case! The next surface low will be crossing east, with the center of the low likely remaining near the US/Canadian border. This is likely to result in a cold front approaching our region late next week. Another low may develop along the cold front, but even so, it appears that most of the precipitation with this event will come ahead of the front, solidly in the warm sector. Thus, it appears if we see any precipitation associated with this system, it will be mostly rain on Thursday. However, stay tuned to the latest forecast as at least one model shows QPF behind the strong cold front, which would be changing to snow.

NWS radar has always been my go-to, probably out of convenience. The new radar is just a horrific combo of ugly and poor functionality. Any suggestions on the best (free) radar site?

Yup. And it is pretty rare to not have p-type issues in these bigger, high qpf storms.

Yeah I get it. I still think people get biased when they see 20" over their yards run after run, when in reality it is actually more like 10 verbatim, and then when they actually get 7..well you know.

I don't recall any snow amounts that high. The event was in and out in under 2 hours. It started with marginal temps, 33-34. Most of the snow here fell at 32 degrees, with massive aggregates. It piled up fast despite the temps. Yes the cold behind the front was impressive.