CAPE

For snow, negative AO is number one In absence, an EPO ridge may mitigate Otherwise DCA is done

You are in a groove.

Poetry section starts here. Go!

You answered it all in your op. No one knows. It's in the hands of god. NWP is useless hocus-pocus. end thread/

Another awful Tenman thread. Poetry?

Just to expand the futility area a bit, Philly is at 0.3". Their worst snowfall season was 1972-73, recording a trace. As of now, this winter would rank second, just ahead of 1997-98, with 0.8".

The further north you go and/or at higher elevations the less critical it is to have all the weather index "stars" aligned. The upper MW/GLs and NNE can still do okay with the advertised crapola pattern. If the trough does in fact lock in out west then obviously the mountain areas out there will do quite well.

It's a little hard to get a sense of it looking at a composite, but a sustained -NAO (and often a quasi-stationary 50-50 low underneath) produces a true "block" in the flow- basically the opposite of a progressive pattern. Along with a favorable storm track and a more sustained eastern trough, it 'forces' a strengthening coastal low to move more slowly to the NE or ENE under the block.

Many here have probably seen this CWG article by Wes from a few winters ago, but for those who have not, it is very good and explains/discusses the roles of the key indices(AO, NAO, EPO, ENSO, etc) and their impacts on cold and snow for the DC area, and includes insightful scatter diagrams. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/12/what-the-different-weather-patterns-might-mean-for-snow-this-winter/

I just made a post, and the thread showed that I made the most recent post, but its not showing up. Something is effed up.

I am right in that hole over the upper Delmarva. No rain here in 2 weeks. Been running the sprinkler but grass still getting torched. Oh well, pretty used to it, as the rain we get this time of year is of the feast/famine variety. With the high sun and typical July heat, my yard cant survive without water for more than a few days.

Noticeably dry here in the past week. Soil getting a bit dusty for the first time in months. I think the last big event was a couple weeks ago with the 2 part deal in late March- mostly rain/sleet here for part one and the heavy wet snow for part 2. Been really nothing significant since then. 0.11" for April.

Yeah the biggest issue with winter drought for most in this forum is it = little snow lol

Cant imagine its still abnormally dry here, but I guess its possible. I ended up with 3.8" for Jan.

Was that the total for the whole event? I saw some reports from southern DE of up to 7" from Friday night alone. I would love to see some other event totals from the lower Delmarva.

You might get another 3-6 today.

Another 20-30 miles NW and I am in the bullseye I sincerely hope SBY and the beaches get 6"+. I had such a great time at Rehoboth for that cold powder bomb in early Jan.

Here are some official totals from Mount Holly for the 1/7 storm for southern DE- ...SUSSEX COUNTY... OCEAN VIEW 13.5 625 PM 1/07 TRAINED SPOTTER SELBYVILLE 13.0 604 PM 1/07 TRAINED SPOTTER SEAFORD 9.0 550 PM 1/07 TRAINED SPOTTER LAUREL 8.0 538 PM 1/07 DEOS ELLENDALE 6.6 537 PM 1/07 DEOS 7 E SELBYVILLE 6.5 600 AM 1/08 COCORAHS STOCKLEY 6.2 537 PM 1/07 DEOS BRIDGEVILLE 6.1 538 PM 1/07 DEOS 1 W MILLSBORO 6.1 800 AM 1/08 COCORAHS BLADES 6.0 545 PM 1/07 TRAINED SPOTTER NASSAU 5.8 600 PM 1/07 DEOS I was in Rehoboth and there was unofficially 10" there for the 1/7 event. Lewes I thought I saw a report of 12" somewhere. I don't have any official totals for the 1/30 event, but I know there was a 2-4" area in southern DE for that one. Hope this helps!

That one storm made this wretched winter bearable. Who would have thunk it- the best pure snow event of the season for our region occurred at the beaches. Cold dry powder with drifting too. I had 2 great days at Rehoboth, then came home to 6" on the ground and that stuck around for 3 more days. I got a nice snow hike in at Tuckahoe. Good 5 day stretch of winter, and in early January to boot. But that was all she wrote.

Nope. 1.2" here. Hoping to see some reports from Delaware. Best banding has persistently been in Sussex County. Must be some 4' amounts there.

Rehoboth is completely awesome. No official measurement but definitely 8+ with lots of drifts. Winter wonderland at the beach plus bar hopping. So fun.

Took these out in front of the hotel in Rehoboth.

Looking pretty good. Root for the NAM of course lol. Even if it is overdone, almost all other guidance has at least a few inches down your way and over to the beaches.

They were not similar at all in many respects. 1996 was colder, and even though it flipped to sleet for many, it had a long duration cold conveyor of moderate snow after the shallow warm layer moved off. For the storm this year, either you were in the deform band or you weren't. It rapidly weakened when it finally pivoted east, so those that were solidly dry slotted didn't pick up much more accumulation. Also places on the lower eastern shore(Salisbury) had mostly rain from the storm this past January. Pretty sure they did much better in the 96 storm.

15" here for the Jan storm this winter. Dry slotted. 1996 I had 20" despite hours of sleet in the middle.