CAPE

Yeah the EPO ridge is the key to getting cold again. The +heights on the panel from your post are mostly a result of the anomalous warmth that builds across Canada in the days prior. Once the EPO ridge develops and colder air starts to get reestablished, hopefully we see a period with the NAO neutral/slightly negative. The very end of the latest EPS/GEFS hinting at it and the Weeklies are depicting this at least for a time in early Jan. That's probably our first potential window.

A week of above normal isnt a disaster.

Both the GEFS and EPS have high pressure pressing southward along the east coast for much of Christmas week with the last bit of Canadian cold hanging on, while the rest of the continent is overcome by the Pacific onslaught and above normal temps. Lucky us!

Understood. Jan 22 was a pretty good month for a big chunk of our subforum though, not just the eastern part. Again, I think what you are referring to at D15 is essentially something transient that resembles a good pattern- not a Nino like pattern that's going to persist. Take a look at h5 and the North American surface temps on the EPS between Dec 28 and Jan 1. At the end of the run you can see the jet retraction/retrograding NPAC trough and the western ridge start to go up. That is the beginning of scouring out the Pacific air from our source region. Now all the extended products could be wrong- but they continue that pattern progression.

That day 15 look is devoid of cold. Those +heights in the NA are a remnant of the bad pattern leading up to it. We can't snow with that. The pattern needs to progress to the -EPO/TPV combo to bring the cold. The risk is cold and dry, but gotta have the cold. The trough will probably broaden/shift west as the ridge axis does(typical Nina). Keep the EPO ridge and time a wave or 2. That's how we win lately in a Nina. Forget big snow. Forget your 40" climo average. Be content with a few light/ moderate events. Beach chase if there is an offshore bomb.

That's the difference on the latest runs for western areas- the low associated with the weak clipper stays more intact. For eastern areas the inverted trough thing never works out at our latitude, and if some light precip does manage to fall temps are warmish, so probably light rain or maybe a snow tv mix.

That would be a pretty good NA look by traditional standards/ if we looked at it in isolation. Specifically in this case what that panel represents is a step in the transition from the prior Pac puke onslaught with a torched Canada to the pattern being advertised a few days later on the latest EPS weeklies. That is the same look depicted on Jan 1 of the weeklies, and it ends up like this by the 6th-

It is Nino-ish to a degree. Not sure about STJ contribution, but if this look verifies we have a mechanism between the EPO ridge and the stretched TPV for Polar air to chill Canada pretty quickly with cold moving southeastward from there. Maybe after this pattern reset and being further into winter we get better luck with NS wave timing. A little -NAO action certainly would help to slow the flow a bit and hold the cold in instead of exiting stage right as a storm approaches. AO/NAO looks neutral here.

The latest extended products have normal temps back in the east within the first few days of Jan, then colder from there through mid month. Pattern might go more 'classic Nina' by the end of the month, but the -EPO looks to persist into early Feb which should keep the SER on the flat side.

Yeah all the ensembles depict the same general pattern evolution. Canadian is quickest in getting some colder air eastward.

The shortwave energy is sharper and goes more neutral over the last few runs of the GFS. The surface reflection from the weak clipper is also a bit stronger so maybe between it and the developing offshore low we get a bit of moisture transport.

The extended products have been pretty persistent with the idea of a cold period in January. We shall see if we get lucky with coincidence of antecedent cold and a well timed wave.

Good question. Don't expect a logical answer.

That's a 10 mb temp anomaly panel. Not very relevant to sensible weather.

12z CMC ens gets the longwave pattern back to a solid look by Jan 1. Temps are even a bit below normal. Probably a little too soon, but majority of guidance is moving towards this in the LR.

0.62" total

Just looked. Somewhat interesting.

The beginning of the advertised pattern change on the extended products is evident at the very end of the latest ens runs. The NPJ is forecast to be (too) extended for the last week of the month, but around NYE there is some retraction that relocates the exit region, so the GoA trough retrogrades while a downstream h5 ridge starts to redevelop. The jet configuration has been shifting, so its hard to say how stable this will be. In general a retracted jet is favored in a Nina, but with the weak nature of it(and tropical forcing) who knows. When it retracts too far westward the characteristic Nina NPAC ridge develops.

Moderate to occasionally heavy rain showers moving through this morning. 0.33 so far

The last few runs of the Euro weeklies are depicting an increasingly colder look for early to mid January. GFSX and CMC weeklies are advertising the same general h5 look for the first half of Jan. All 3 are hinting at +heights building into the NAO space.

I must have missed it.

MVP is a regular season award. His playoff record is not great at this point, but it is a team game. Lamar threw a perfect pass to Flowers who fumbled the ball going into the end zone early in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship game. If he scores there the Ravens have all the momentum and the crowd is going crazy, but instead it was deflating. There is no excuse for purposely designing a game plan where the RBs have 6 total rushes, against a defense that was mediocre against the run(and great defending the pass.) The Ravens were the top rushing team in the league. McNabb..no lol. Come on now. Good QB. Not comparable to Lamar.