CAPE

The RGEM would certainly make more people happy, but it doesnt really fit the specific features driving this event- it simply looks like the more impressive precip(snow) will fall in a relatively localized area. Hard to envision 4" in Frederick to N central Carroll Co AND 4-5" from N DE to Philly into in SNJ.

AFD from Mount Holly. Some weenie terminology in there lol -Confidence continues to increase that a snow event that will impact the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. A clipper system will ride along the base of a closed upper low, moving across the Ohio River Valley during the day Saturday and into the Mid Atlantic states Saturday night before moving offshore Sunday. As this clipper system arrives across the region, the closed upper low will begin to reopen as an amplified trough, providing baroclinic forcing that will assist in the strengthening of a weak clipper system into more of a broad offshore low. As it strengthens, guidance shows a zone of strengthening 700-850mb frontogenesis (FGEN) developing across the southern half of the region as snow begins Saturday night into Sunday morning. Forecast soundings plentiful cold air through the column that is well saturated aloft with plentiful moisture within the dendritic growth region. All of this would point to a zone of potentially some increased snowfall intensity for a time early Sunday morning with snowfall rates potentially as high as 1" per hour at times. There still remains some potential on the southern fringe of the precipitation shield that the precipitation starts as some light rain or a mix of rain/snow before changing to all snow. Lows Saturday night will fall squarely into the 20s, supporting this all-snow event. The model consensus puts the axis of the maximum precipitation amounts very close to the I-95 corridor, favoring areas just south and east. Overall, a widespread 2-4 inches of snow are expected across the Highlands from northern NJ into southeastern PA, the I-95 corridor, and across the coastal plain into the central Delmarva Peninsula and the rest of southern NJ, including the Jersey Shore. Given the increasing potential for mesoscale FGEN snow bands, there is a potential for a concentrated are of 4-5 inches of snowfall somewhere near the I-95 corridor and immediately south and east with up to 20-30% chance for for a handful of reports over 5 inches in that specific area. At this time, we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the forecast area.

Zoomed in from Warner Brothers

This event is going to be driven by what happens in the upper levels, not so much where the weak low forms and tracks. Our region gets underneath the right rear entrance region of a strong jet streak for a time- this area is favorable for strong lift, and is why the heavier stripe of precip essentially forms in place. Question is exactly where that feature will be located, which varies slightly among the guidance and run to run. It will be a small scale event, so relatively few will be happy with the result.

Latest blend juiced up

Love the OZ ICON. How's the 0z lookin?

Latest NBM still suggests a general 1-3" across much of the region. Go with it for now. If there is meso banding that produces locally higher amounts, that won't be resolved until closer to game time.

Just how dry it is from the previous run. Not that this is exclusively a NAM thing, but it does tend to vacillate pretty wildly. The proverbial 'NAMing' that lasts a run or 2 then disappears.

Gotta love the NAM. Such a predictably awful model lol. When they gonna retire the damn thing?

Yeah whatever falls falls. But most of the life of a snow weenie is in fact spent living and dying with each model run. Come on dude, you know this.

Mount Holly going with a general 1-3", and defaulting to the NBM(surprise!) due to the current disparity among the guidance. Also mention the potential for a stripe of 3-5" somewhere in the area if some of the more juiced up runs verify.

Or you on most guidance. The latest blend should relax some of those on the fringe on various model simulations. This appears to be a relatively small scale event, but still enough variation among the models, so we just cant know yet. Read enough AFDs and one will find the forecast offices prefer to go with the NBM at this range in these situations.

This will not be the event that unites us unfortunately. Good thing is it is a rather wimpy pos so even those who get the 'good' snow are probably looking at a max of 2-3", and most will see an inch or less.

Pretty similar through hr 65

Nein

The Iconic(not) About the same

Love the tiny 4" jackpot for Annapolis

That was associated with a strong mid level low iirc, but yes the mechanism for strong lift was there over a relatively localized area. This wont be near the magnitude and even smaller in scale it appears.

The other thing to keep an eye on is the location of the RR entrance region of the jet streak. It shifts a bit from run to run and will be a factor in determining where the zone of best ascent(heavier precip) will be located.

Gotta keep an eye on the exact location and timing of phasing that occurs with the energy associated with the vorticity lobe. 12z CMC has it further west/interacts sooner than the 0z run. Pretty big change there, thus more amped/ warmer/norther.

It's a 1-2" event. What exactly is the best stuff lol

Just like clockwork. Perpetual snow for 3+ months. Love how these people just take it in stride. They just drive in it and scrape the roads after each event. No chemicals put on the roads to ruin their vehicles.

Someone should start one because this potential is moving into the short range..

Great 30 for 30 on Stuart Scott. Trailblazer. Teared up a bit at the end.