CAPE

This is a possible outcome with the sort of h5 look being advertised. I would sign up for that.

But you can say this 9 out of10 times there is a chance of snow. Be adventurous and daring. Chiefs by 17!

Yeah there is some moisture available ahead of the Arctic press. I know some here live in fear of cold and dry but not me. I will take my chances. Love the idea of a moderate cold powder event followed by some Siberian cold. Been awhile. Chasing a KU in the MA in a Nina is pretty low probability, and it may still happen beyond this as things relax up top.

Been busy today so just looking over the means. Goddamn this is a radical look. Wow.

Like this?

Continuing those contours over this way there was probably a sloppy inch or 2. I guess in the context of what was going on before and after, it was easily forgettable.

Huh. No recollection. Must have been rain here lol.

I thought the one after the late Jan event was the first of the 2 big storms in Feb.

This one might be the "collective will" event that @North Balti Zen posted about.

Nah I haven't created a storm thread since the last one I started ended in a train derailment. Let the mods take care of it.

Y'all thought I was kidding with my 'keep hope alive' post yesterday after the HH GEFS came out.

6z EPS suggesting highs in the 30s on Monday, in the wake of the storm that may happen.

I get that, but the point I was making is that over here the historical snowfall avg is not much different than places along and east of I-95 west of the bay. It gets better right along and then ofc much better west of the fall line.

That part of his post was overstating it. Last year sucked for the whole region, but going forward, snow climo here may well become worse.

lol I was just having a bit of fun at your expense. I know my climo here, and what is ideal for my yard is not necessarily what you want to see, but it is not all that rare either. Long term avg snowfall here is higher than DC, at 18.5". There are many times I have gotten moderate or even significant snow that have left places NW of I-95 high and dry. Happened in Jan of 2017 and 18 most recently. Both of those events had legit cold air in place. That tends to even things out a bit, because clearly being further inland is better much of the time.

Its well NW.

Razor thin margin for victory for eastern areas.. A rain/snow mix or snow tv does nothing for me at this juncture. Blocking galore so far but I am not even half way to median snowfall. As it stands now it looks like the chances for any legit cold is delayed until late next week.

That is snow to rain to snow verbatim on the mean. One reason the snowfall is pretty meager.

This will be yours in the end dw lol.

I get it. We suck here by default. I might suggest just thinking a bit more before you make a post. A lot of times I start to make a post, evaluate, and then I say nah, that doesn't really add anything and I dump it.

Your posts have been a little erratic lately.

This is what I am referring to. The ideal look here would have the thermal boundary somewhat suppressed to the SE. Ofc that scares the NW folks because FRINGED.

It would be briefly colder behind the storm, but beyond that I doubt the overall progression changes much.