CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Yeah, it tends to be colder further north. Maybe go back and read the context of the original posts.
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None were very cold leading in. The first storm in Feb I remember temps being around 36 when the first flakes were falling, and the temp pretty quickly dropped to freezing, and then into the mid 20s. The next one was actually rain here for the first part, but when the actual low that became the blizzard moved in, temps fell into the 20s. The coldest by far was the late Jan event where temps were in the teens and stayed there during the whole storm.
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Having all the features in the right places is the key. If the west based block is legit, we should have HP where we need it, and not running away, and lower heights where we want it off of the Canadian Maritimes. There are always variations and more "risk" for the coastal plain, but having a persistent -AO/NAO is about as good as it gets for snow chances.
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It wasn't super cold for any of the 3 big storms in 2009-10. We had the great blocking with a perfect storm track, and ofc we had the active stj with a moderate Nino.
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A poleward shift/relaxation of the Pac jet and associated +PNA does wonders for our temps. Not super cold but much improved towards the end of the run without the firehose pointed straight at us.
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Sounds good. PM me.
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If you can make it, meet me in Kent Island tomorrow. Going to donate blood at 3 pm then I will be heading to the Winery at Red Apple Plaza to pick up some stuff for NYE after that.
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The infotainment system. What vehicle do you have?
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I'll trade these RAR bacon stouts for some of your pumpkin stout
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That sounds like a great stout.
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Yeah I read reviews based on that version- layers of coffee and dark chocolate. Needless to say I was a bit surprised lol. I will be in kent Island tomorrow from about 3pm to maybe 5pm.
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Drinking a Guinness Stock Ale. Now this is a good stout.
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Have you tried the latest version of RAR First Meal Stout? Holy shit is it awful lol. Unless you like chewing on a slab of salty hickory smoked bacon. What a terrible concept. Worst damn thing I have ever drank. I have 3 of the 4 left if you want them lol.
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Yeah I think Cohen is going with the most conservative possible outcome. I just posted it for fun. Given what we are seeing on the LR means now with the blocking, it seems like we should be legitimately in the game around mid month or so. Could always luck into something before that too.
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Steelers are going to rest a bunch of players. No Big Ben, as expected. Good news for the Browns. Lets see if they can take advantage and break their awful streak of futility. Otoh, this wont help the Ravens and Colts. Ofc the Ravens don't need any help if they take care of business against the Bengals. I think this is going to be a lot more challenging than it really should be.
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Good practice for when the blocking gets real.
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When you see Tropospheric vortices crawling around/trapped under the block, you know its legit. This is what we need.
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I posted about this early this morning. I beat the expert to the punch!
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lol depends on which one of the SPV doctors you want to believe. They all say something a little different. Just looking at the forecasted 50 and 500 mb height/temp anomaly alignment I would say we are coupled and primed for long term blocking. Just give me that massive west-based block at the end of the Euro run and hope the Pacific calms down a bit. I will leave the rest of the esoteric SPV voodoo stuff to the geeks to figure out.
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Judah thinks there might be some winter in N America by MLK day. Maybe by Feb for the east coast?
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Upper 30s is getting into cold rain territory, and that's always better than mild rain.
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Definitely a legit looking ridge towards the end of this run. Maybe there was more spread on the previous runs wrt to exact location, causing flatter height lines on the mean.
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That is the general look that I was touting last night with the Euro weeklies and this morning on the extended GEFS. I get your point about ridge placement sensitivity, but we are playing with fire almost all the time anyway. As long as that trough isn't a monster sitting over GoA, it think we will be in pretty good shape, and a ridge might get us a little more cold to work with.
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That is a nice progression and can work despite marginal cold with a block like that. Lets hope we see more of that inside day 15 over the next few days
