CAPE

Wow that is dumb. They really don't want to do the week 18 thing.

Yeah poor excuse for a -NAO. 50-50 high smh.

Very orange looking out there. Kinda cool but creepy.

Just got home. Lots of water laying around from the line that just moved through. Some legit flash flooding in places. Must have been a deluge, and the soil cant take it this time of year esp with all the rain of the last several months. 1.65" in the rain gauge here. eta- looks like an inch of that fell in the last hour.

Might get a shot of legit cold air around mid month with this look. AK trough muted, and cold air in central Canada decently recharged. Have to watch the western ridging as it appears to waning/retrograding some at this point- might be wrong, temporary, or the pattern could be evolving to one more typical of a Nina.

Mount Holly thoughts this morning- CAMs continue to indicate scattered, fragmented, multi-mode convection developing across the forecast area. Any robust convection that can get going and maintain itself will have the potential to be of the "power shower" variety. These will have the potential to bring down the stronger winds from just above the surface in the form of damaging straight line wind gusts. If the best instability is realized (>500 J/kg), I wouldn`t be surprised to see a low-topped supercell or two across the coastal plain. In addition to the convective wind potential, low level shear values will be high (40+ kts) with curved low level hodographs supportive of surface based rotation. The tornado potential is certainly non- zero with this environment, but given questionable convective mode the confidence is not particularly high on this potential.

Yeah they won't postpone it unless there are more positives tomorrow. And there is no chance the Ravens win with 8 starters out due to covid, plus the ones that are already out due to season ending injuries.

Seems the game may be in some jeopardy now. It's sad to say, but from a competitive standpoint another positive test today may work to their advantage. Not a chance in hell they beat the Steelers if the game is played Tuesday. If it is postponed, it will likely be played week 18 when the Ravens will be potentially fully healthy from all the key injuries they are are dealing with now, outside of covid.

It's going be worse once winter starts.

Well this season yeah ofc. I am comparing the Titans ability to dominate the LoS and impose their will this year to the Ravens of last season. Ravens this year are pretty inept on the OL, and that impacts everything they try to do offensively. There are other shortcomings too, but that is most glaring.

Looks more Nina-ish at h5.. but the cold is actually better in our source region around that time. Question is, where will it dump?

The GEFS has completely given up on that idea for now, and the EPS was never into it.

We open for bidness? I might be interested, if the accommodations are luxury, the food gourmet, and adult beverages high end and aplenty.. and ofc the facility is covid free. Getting goddamned stir crazy here! But...the last 2 Ninas were memorable with the back to back Jan beach chases, so I shall resist the temptation- for now.

Titans looking a lot like the Ravens did last season. They have built on their late season run from last year.They might be a contender.

Just looking at h5, I would say thats a paste bomb for the highlands.

I'm surprised it took this long to start unraveling.

Practice squad players are gonna get their chance.

If there aren't more positives today on either team, the game will be played. And the Ravens will be annihilated lol. Save the season mode will start with the Cowboy game. They would pretty much have to win out to ensure a playoff spot.

Mount Holly concurs on uncertainty with lots of moving pieces.. Unfortunately, model spread is rather high next weekend when the southern-stream system is expected to phase with yet another digging vort max from central/eastern Canada. The solutions suggest strong cyclogenesis will occur as the surface low somewhere in the southeastern U.S. lifts northeastward during the weekend, but ultimate tracks are anywhere from the spine of the Appalachians (00z GFS) to the lee of the higher terrain (00z CMC) to well offshore (00z ECMWF), with widely varying sensible-weather results for our area. At this point, it seems prudent to mention that a potentially strong storm system may affect the area next weekend, but the details will require improved model consensus.

MJO figures to have some impact around mid month. Tropical convection is pretty non existent, but is forecast to increase some near the MC going forward. GEFS and EURO have it emerging from the COD into phase 4/5, but for now it looks like it would be on the weaker side.

3 events over the next 2 weeks.

31 and frosty this morning.

If I'm standing on the deck that's probably about right.

Ten+ days out on an op GFS run is number one.

For a few showers after the heavy rain? I guess lol. Looks interesting for Canaan.