CAPE

I never thought there was enough confluence with this one. The NA vortex is on the move as this system slowly evolves, so we lose the 'suppressive' element and the mechanism to keep the cold feed from the NE as the transfer is unfolding. I knew early on that there would be some rain here, and why I never bought the somewhat suppressed/colder Euro runs.

Don't forget the E wind effing up the lower levels. Mild rainy day here much of Monday. Oh yeah the Euro caved lol.

Have to keep an eye on the location and timing of the area of heavier precip that develops to the west of the 850 low as it tracks off the coast. This is close over here with p-type as the cold is just wrapping back in at this time. Verbatim probably heavy rain/sleet flipping to snow.

It will be interesting to see how the mesos roll as we get more into their wheelhouse. The Fgen banding area will make all the difference for some. As long as the front end stays good and there isn't too much warming, a modest back end is fine. GFS is the one model that still annoys me.

Surprised the snow map looked that good here given the lack of precip for several hours, with the banding just to the NW. That has been the trend though the last 2-3 runs, as I told you it would be last night when you were sure this was on the road to suppression lol.

29/11 currently

31 here as well.

Chill always returns when there is a legit threat. Its sayin' something that it took this long.

Friday, HH, WSW, 120 min IPA.

It was, but still kinda sucky here lol. GFS tho.

The CMC was actually as warm/warmer, and now it is more in line with the Euro. Good sign.

Pouring rain here.

lol yeah because they persistently suck. I literally hate the last 6 runs of the GFS for here.

The fgen banding is going to be the difference maker locally for the second half of the storm. That also creates local adjacent dead zones, so it can be feast/famine within a very short distance. No way to know exactly where that sets up at this juncture.

lol that run was nuts though.

He is right..but did anyone think this was even close to reality? (my yard is the jack zone, so NO).

For my area esp...eff yeah it is lol. But still..we track and comment on each cycle.

Because it is the latest model to puke out what it thinks will happen.

Still going at hour 84. Not too shabby.

@frd getting crushed here.

Sounds like what Mount Holly was discussing in their latest AFD.

Interesting read from Mount Holly for the coastal low part of the storm. Kinda sounds like maybe the B word might make an appearance- By early Monday, the surface low intensifying and pivoting off the coast will result in increasing winds and increasing cold air advection as the mean flow turns northeasterly. Impressive wind fields (925 mb winds 40-50+ kts along and south/east of I-95) will develop as a result of the gradient leading to strong winds at the surface. The strongest winds will be along and near the coasts with gusts possibly in excess of 50 mph. Farther inland, wind gusts of 35- 45 mph will likely be common along and south/east of I-95. As a result, a change over to all snow is expected on the back side of the storm, even all the way to the coast, as the system begins departing into Monday night. Light snow may linger into Tuesday morning depending on how progressive the storm is. The exact placement and strength of the low will dictate exactly where the heaviest snow falls. The complexity of this system lies in details of the system transitioning from an overruning precip regime to a mesoscale banding (f-gen) and wrap-around precip regime. The latest 12Z guidance suite has trended the system a bit southward and thus colder, which suggests the greatest potential for f-gen banding across portions of interior southern New Jersey and Delmarva. This axis can certainly change over the coming forecast updates. Snow totals in the banding could potentially exceed the broadbrush ~6-8" storm total snowfall that is currently forecast across much of the urban corridor and south/east away from the coast.

Forecast here is 2-4 Sunday, 1-3 Sunday night. Beyond that- maybe more if it doesn't get too rainy/mixy.

WSW for southern half of Mount Holly FA as well

I am thinking the deform band would be more expansive/continuous from NJ southwestward towards DC.