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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    I don't think it has finished yet lol.
  2. CAPE
    I am going with the Euro/3km NAM/Para/WRF blend with this one, assuming they don't take a single tick north from this point on- which is unlikely lol.
  3. CAPE
    Happy to see there is such a large area offshore that will receive up to 3" of snow.
  4. CAPE
    If the effing north trend would stop, some of us outside of the northern tier would do ok. But I mean, what are these runs going to look like at 18z? My yard is tickled by the 850 0c line for a panel on most guidance now, which probably isn't a disaster- yet- but the indications are strong.
  5. CAPE
    Imo there was no way both waves were going to be legit and hit the same area. With the first wave stronger, (and confluence to our NE not as strong as advertised, esp on the Euro) it goes norther, and in its wake it pulls the boundary further south. Had the lead wave been a weak pos, I think the second one would have probably been good for N and C VA and much of MD, DE.
  6. CAPE
    It's late to that game.
  7. CAPE
    As of this moment it still shows 6" of digital snow(3 in the real world) but that is likely going to change in about 30 mins.
  8. CAPE
    lol It will probably eff me on temps more than precip when it makes the expected jump north, but might be both!
  9. CAPE
    I never look past the one right in front of me when it gives me snow. if the trend stopped right now it would still be decent here,. One more tick and its mostly sleet. Ofc the GFS also wants to eff me on precip, but it is the only model really doing that.
  10. CAPE
    He has a way with words..
  11. CAPE
    Most guidance still looks decent for over here outside of the GFS, but there would be some sleet mixed in, which is fine. Not much margin for error though. Need the souther solutions of the bunch to be more correct.
  12. CAPE
    Still need the EURO to completely cave. 6z run was still quite good for many.
  13. CAPE
    WSW will probably be going up for the southern tier counties of PA. Maybe even into central PA, as the north trend continues.
  14. CAPE
    Looking Euroish.
  15. CAPE
    I like the juice over this way on the 3k NAM even though it might not be all snow.
  16. CAPE
    NAMs are sleety here.
  17. CAPE
    Overall things look good for a general light to perhaps moderate event. Problem is there will probably be an area that will receive lighter qpf on the south side for wave 1, and could also miss wave 2 completely- and it might coincide with the same places that have been screwed recently. So yeah there is some angst.
  18. CAPE
    But we were told the late north trend doesn't happen in these types of setups.
  19. CAPE
    That will likely change, its just due to uncertainty. Might expand the WSW for wave 2 further north, and/or put an advisory in effect later today for wave 1/wave 2.
  20. CAPE
    1-3 seems reasonable. Recent runs are juicing up the initial wave some, but that seems to coincide with a more northward axis of better qpf. 12z will probably tell the rest of that story.
  21. CAPE
    We always suck lol. Definitely do better with the bigger events in a Nino with a juiced up stj. Ninas find more ways of screwing the MA in general, although much less so a in blocking regime.
  22. CAPE
    Everything is moving that way. I am leaning towards S PA jack, altho the usual places in N MD will also do well.
  23. CAPE
    GFS kinda has it here lol.
  24. CAPE
    There is going to be a dead zone that misses/mostly misses both waves.
  25. CAPE
    The general issues with next week are the trough axis to our west, and the h5 height configuration to our NE. Euro/EPS has a deeper trough and a bit negative/w stronger ridging out in front, and the NA vortex is a bit further NE. More opportunity for a primary to track to our west.
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