CAPE

Rinse and repeat. Midwest trough and a Bermuda High.

Ended up with 1.5" here. The heaviest rain locally fell from lower southern MD over to southern DE. Widespread 3-4" with some 5"+ amounts. Looks like Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge was the jackpot with close to 6".

Moderate to heavy rain here. No wind, nothing severe. Just a soaker. I guess those HRRR runs were a bit off lol. There is a pretty sharp cutoff between steady rain and showery just to my west. Radar depiction right now looks impressive. Those bands wrapping in towards south Jersey look ominous.

Up to 0.03" here with legit light rain now. Might be bordering on moderate.

Drizzle. Maybe the ground will be damp by midnight.

GFS has 2.5" here, HRRR less than 0.25. Gotta love it.

18z GFS lol. Probs too course. Gotta go with the hi res guidance at this juncture.

Latest run has less than quarter inch here lol. Looking at radar trends, I am not discounting it.

The Hurricane models are not very useful once over land and esp at our latitude imo.

The 18z Iconic is holding steady. It might not always be exactly correct, but it is not subject to wild vacillations run to run like the favored globals. Something to be said for that. Underrated model imo.

And related to that, drinking a DFH WWS Oak aged vanilla edition, while tracking Elsa remnants.

Speaking of which, have not seen any posts from him lately.

All the headlines here- Tropical storm warning, FF Watch, and a Tornado Watch just to my south. It would be comical if I end up with a few showers or some drizzle lol. Grass is already on its way to hell, so a period of moderate rain isn't super exciting anyway.

HRRR has my yard on the NW edge. It could be right, I suppose.

Prefacing a post by stating no radar hallucination, = radar hallucination.

LWX does mention the storms out to the west ahead of Elsa/Else in their AFD.. Ahead of Elsa, hi-res guidance continues to pick up on some spotty showers and thunderstorms out ahead of Elsa. These primarily seem to be west of the Blue Ridge and then continuing into northern MD, before pushing off to the north. Given the approaching upper trough, and of course Elsa as well, could see a few damaging wind gusts in any storms this afternoon. Instability won`t be nearly what we have seen in recent days, but looks to be in the 1000-1500 range given the forecast amounts from the 12z IAD sounding. Any storms should quickly dissipate as Else inches closer and subsidence around the periphery builds into the region. By this point though, Else will become the primary focus, as rain pushes into southern Maryland early this evening.

CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Turd flushed.

He clearly isn't here to discuss weather. Even in banter he is just spewing cryptic nutter shit.

Well before you bash the Euro, go to TT and check the GFS over the past 4-5 cycles. Hardly stellar from run to run. One of the runs had a tenth or less for most of the eastern shore.

In most cases the display name is a giveaway.

You sure the GFS is going to be correct with the sharp cutoff? There has been variability in its track and intensity over the last few days.

Surprised some of y'all found him to be "entertaining". Can spot these dudes from their initial post.

75 this morning. Tropical.