CAPE

Makes sense. He knows NY, and a good manager. Probably couldn't have made a better choice given the options.

Can't see this team going on a Super Bowl run like they did after dumping Cam lol. Just too beat up.

Good read for Ravens fans. Yeah the OL is a bit of a mess, and they have no legit RBs, but Roman still insists on going with run heavy formations, limiting the passing game- despite major upgrades at WR. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/12/16/22838532/ravens-offense-issues-greg-roman-lamar-jackson

The rest of the month after this weekend should average around normal. That has been the expectation based on the h5 look the ensemble means have been advertising. Take a trip north if you want to experience cold and snow the next 10 days or so.

I am ok with the pattern progression potential as advertised on the means. Around Xmas though we aren't quite there yet, and a range of possibilities from a storm cutting west/north, to a perfectly timed 'thread the needle' moderate wave, to dry/shredded pos in NW flow are all viable at this juncture. I was just dragging his ass for that stupid post.

Yeah must be. It's a meteorological impossibility with a deep trough out west and a flat ridge in the eastern third of the US. Unheard of.

HH GFS with some NYE snow. Might happen. Only half a month away!

Blue Earl Brewing Bourbon Barrel Stout 2021 for HH. Excellent.

I was referring verbatim to the GEFS output. One of us is wrong, er engaging in nonsensical hyperbole.

If the advertised block is legit we should have a period of 'cold enough' and chances for storms to track under us.

Looking at the GEFS/GEFSX, our temps are average to a few degrees below average from the last few days of Dec through Jan 18 verbatim. I'll take that on a mean. No JB weenie ass vodka cold showing up though.

We can't have nice things. We can have wind.

Latest runs of the GEFS are hinting at that for later next week. Odds would favor areas well north of here. Even when the GFS/GEFS was involving the SS wave with the previous digging piece of NS energy(which 'disappeared') for earlier next week, it looked to be largely too late for our area.

I wouldn't completely write off next week for a storm. Early next week is the beginning of a pattern change, and models tend to struggle a bit more with the stream interactions and associated disturbances. The lack of cold will be an issue should guidance grant us a 'new' storm threat leading up to Christmas .

The GEFS has the NS energy digging south just as (what's left of) the southern shortwave reaches the coast of NC- where the baroclinic boundary lies as modeled. So it is captured but the coastal low develops a bit too late for the MA, and typical of a Nina, is good for points further NE. The op run was doing this a few runs ago with a much sharper NS shortwave, but has since backed off. The takeaway is we still cant know.

GEFS has low to mid 40s.

Some of y'all might have a better idea about the 'trends' if you stopped looking at op run surface maps.

I think the town is closer to 6000 ft. And rates! But yeah, we pretty much are.

A couple things looking at the latest ensemble runs. The High that settles in after the weekend 'event' brings temps back to around normal for Monday. It also is on the move east as the system of interest approaches. As of now it looks like a decent chance for a coastal low to develop, but exactly where and how close to the coast is uncertain. The degree of interaction with the NS low is a big unknown- GEFS has a more prominent low and the EURO much weaker. Still lots to sort out with the primary features. As for chances of frozen just looking at the big picture at this juncture, not surprising that it favors inland at elevation, but at 6+ days out, this is obviously subject to some significant changes.

Truckee webcam looking pretty impressive this morning.

This is kinda pretty.

It's not what I would call stable. Beginning this weekend the anomalous ridge flattens with some NS energy/chilly air impinging, so temps will go back and forth a bit. As advertised we could be generally colder by Xmas, and esp thereafter as the -NAO becomes more established.

So what qualifies as a pattern change and what entity determines such? You? A 10 day global mean? We talking advertised or verified? Be more specific. I am thinking there is no real intended substance here. Just another shit post from you.

Here is a select cut. All for fun ofc with these super LR tools.