CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Yep. Many of our good events are hybrids. Miller B gets associated too much with Ninas and failure. We have many failure modes lol.
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Cold air in place ahead of a storm, with a favorable pattern, gives the MA lowlands the best opportunity for frozen. The late week deal has always looked convoluted and simply not enough cold around yet.
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It's possible. I am mostly just having a little fun with the labels. The advertised pattern would support a primary wave taking the southern route. There will certainly be pieces of energy in the NS with that look.
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Miller A for Xmas!
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The big 3 global means are all suggestive of one or more waves tracking from the the deep south up along the east coast between Dec 20-25, with cold air in place. Same general favorable h5 look- Go Canada!
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Marcus Williams also activated. Hopefully he plays tomorrow. Secondary significantly better with him in there.
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I think pretty much everyone here realizes this is a marginal cold setup, with relatively low chances for significant frozen.
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As I said the other day, all our hopes and dreams are mostly dependent on random interactions between waves. Man what a weird hobby lol.
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The flow is a bit more compressed(h5 vorticity is stretched out) due to the closer proximity of the quasi-50-50 low. These subtle differences in spacing/interaction can make significant differences in outcome.
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What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago? Primary low stronger and further north, and all that HP across the top is a tad weaker. The ultimate outcome is still TBD with this one.
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The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ!
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He has trouble articulating his thoughts in a coherent manner sometimes. He has been around a long time in this subforum and many of us remember his valuable contributions.
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Chuck is pretty smart tbh. He doesn't troll on purpose.
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Probably a snowman19 sock.
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Ravens cut Mike Davis, activate JK Dobbins. Will we finally have Gus and JK in the backfield at the same time, with Ronnie Stanley at LT? Bring that shiz.
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Still hints of low pressure developing near the gulf for this period. This sort of look could produce a low tracking up along but somewhat off the coast, potentially better for the lowlands.
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lol I am no expert, but I guess I have learned enough over the years to identify the important features and their interactions in a given setup. Large scale fluid mechanics. Cool stuff and complex. I actually enjoy it.
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Not sure what you are on about here. I focus on the synoptics and the features at the surface and aloft each model cycle, so I guess I see things from a different perspective than you do.
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Pretty much the same. No one here cares about rain this time of year though.
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A shame we cant get someone to post a few 12z Euro maps in the LR thread.
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An op run snow map at this range is clown either way dude.
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The mean is not bad. Temps super marginal verbatim, but it implies colder air coming in as precip is still going(that always works!) It would probably be good enough to get the NW crew on the board for sure.
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That's the big difference. The ejecting low has more separation from the trough digging along the west coast and thus is stronger over the central US. Primary holds on too long.
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You're doing ok. At this range with a discrete threat on guidance, the maps on the means become more useful.
