CAPE

The 6z GFS is sharper/digs the NS shortwave more as it drops in from north of the Lakes, thus a bit more precip/snow for the mountains this run.

1.28" total here. Looking forward to some stellar Autumn weather over the next several days. Leaf blowing season is here.

The upcoming chilly period has been well advertised on guidance for a while now. The pattern, and climo, is favorable for western highland snow, from upslope if nothing else.

You are asking some very basic questions here. Maybe read a little bit about ENSO, trade winds, and ocean thermocline.

Where did I say you should be optimistic about the chances of seeing even mean snowfall? I have told you several times that 'expecting' median is more realistic.

Up to 0.92" after that last round. Wind has been a bust, and that's fine with me.

I'm sure. Won't be me. I loved the dry period, just not the temps and humidity. Getting a bit too wet now, and my yard has been in the jip zone compared to other locales. Give me 2 weeks of rainless, seasonably cool weather after today.

That looks quite a bit more 'impressive' than the exact same panel on TT. Gotta love WB.

A little wind.. a little rain. 0.33" lol. Looks like some heavier stuff incoming. I'm way good with getting an inch or less total here. Might get more interesting over the next few hours.

Latest from the CFS for week 6 fwiw. Not a terrible look up top and in the EPAC at h5. Suggestive of -EPO/AO and at least a neutral NAO. Verbatim no cold air anywhere close by though lol.

I'm not overly enthused about some anomalously 'favorable' pattern setting up over the next month. Guidance has been persistent in suggesting some seasonable weather and even a period of slightly below normal temps, mostly courtesy of a +PNA, so I will gladly take that if it is also mostly dry. We'll see how things look on guidance in a few weeks as we head into December. For many of us, getting a winter storm in November or even early December is pretty rare.

Take on severe potential from Mount Holly- Severe thunderstorms/tornadoes: Instability will be quite limited. However, even with a marginal instability, a few thunderstorms are possible, primarily in Delmarva. Any thunderstorms in the vicinity of the occluded front will be developing in an area with significant wind shear and helicity. Thus, rotating storms will be possible in this area. The higher threat for this looks to be further south from our region near the front during the period of max mixing, but will have to watch if the front progresses north faster than currently forecast, the risk for rotating storms could develop as far north as northern Delmarva.

October...November.. all the same with the rate of change of snow cover advance in Eurasia evidently. goin' weaken that PV!

we good for early winter.

Other than some moderate to heavy rainfall, the wind looks to be a bit of a concern here under a strong LLJ, with gusts of 45 mph possible tomorrow. Looks like the immediate coasts of MD and DE could see some 55 mph gusts.

A few would meltdown. Most won't care much. I sure wouldn't. A Mild winter would be lovely for doing outside stuff. I would embrace it.

Anyone who posts here would (should) know better.

Mirror?

Delicious.

1.48"

0.35" from that initial line. Moved through quick.

Gusting here too. Sideways rain against the south side of the house.

Thunder and heavy rain suddenly.

Snowing hard again there now. Roads may soon re-cave.