CAPE

Just as I am leaving the country. I am sure it will be warm and humid again when I return.

SPC AC 310554 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes could occur across the Mid-Atlantic States as the remnants of Ida move through the region on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the northern Plains Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Tropical Depression Ida is forecast to be centered near the KY/TN/VA border intersection early Wednesday morning. Continued northeastward motion of the system is anticipated, taking it off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Wednesday night. Moist low-level southerly flow ahead of this system will likely bring mid 70s dewpoints into the Mid-Atlantic region, helping to increase instability. Additionally, a more banded storm structure is probable by this stage in its life cycle, result in the potential for modest diurnal heating between the bands. Current guidance suggest afternoon temperatures across much of NC and VA will be in the 80s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. These conditions are expected to result in sufficient instability for deeper, more persistent updrafts. In addition to the favorable thermodynamics, strong low to mid-level flow will persist around the remnants of Ida. In fact, some guidance suggests the system may slightly deepen as it encounters increased baroclinicity and undergoes the transition to an extra-tropical system. All of these factors indicate a tornado threat will persist throughout the eastern quadrant of the system as it moves through the Mid-Atlantic. A few convectively augmented wind gusts are possible as well.

Slight risk for much of VA, MD, DE.

From Mount Holly morning AFD- Meanwhile, the southern portions of the area will likely experience some period of time in the system`s warm sector. Though the main impacts of this system may occur after Wednesday`s peak heating, substantial warm/moist advection beneath very favorable large-scale ascent from a strong and intensifying anticyclonic jet streak in the Northeast will likely keep a modestly unstable thermodynamic profile through the overnight hours within this region. Shear profiles are also appearing favorable, with 0-6 km bulk shear 30-40 kt and low- level SRH exceeding 200 J/kg. Convection in this region will likely be organized and potentially rotating as the low moves through, with isolated strong/severe wind gusts and even a couple of tornadoes possible. The SPC has upgraded the southern half of the CWA to a slight risk for Wednesday night, which is quite reasonable given the evolving pattern.

So what happens after hour 56?

Missing the storms here too. Saw a double rainbow from the stuff that just missed to my east though.

6z GFS does have a qpf minimum in our local desert regions.

6z GFS doesn't look much different. Widespread 2-4" is hardly scraps. I mean, is anyone actually expecting a foot of rain from a remnant tropical low entrained in a progressive front?

The ICON is usually pretty steady and not prone to extreme solutions, but I kinda doubt it's gonna be close with it's current depiction.

With the potential incoming deluge this week, I am glad it has been dry here the last week. After almost 5" a week ago, only about a tenth in the last 6 days. All that rain brought the late summer skeeters out though. They had not been an issue all summer.

The GFS has pretty significantly adjusted southward with the track of the remnant low over the last 2 runs, more in line with most other guidance. Now takes the low track from about Charlottesville to Dover. Brings the more widespread heavier rains through our area. The best chances locally for severe would probably be from lower S MD/ lower eastern shore into eastern VA.

Mount Holly AFD discussing the range of possibilities based on latest guidance and model discrepancies. If you don't want to read it all, the short version is.. GFS lol. The main story of the midweek period continues to be the potential for widespread heavy rain and associated hydro impacts primarily Wednesday into early Thursday in association with the remnants of Ida. Guidance remains fairly consistent with this threat, and many of the ingredients for a significant precipitation event appear to be in place including: 1.) Deep tropical moisture (PWATs potentially peaking near or even above 2.25 inches) being advected into the area in association with Ida`s remnants. 2.) Considerable UL synoptic lift in the right-entrance region of an UL jet streak positioned over the St.Lawrence River , and mid- lvl heights fall and DCVA ahead of both the northern trough and Ida`s circulation. 3.) Likely modest baroclinic forcing and low-lvl convergence associated with Ida`s circulation and developing fronts as it transitions extratropical. Although there are some discrepancies among guidance regarding the timing (the GFS per usual is faster) and track of the remnant low (the GFS is a northern outlier at the moment), there exists fairly good consensus for a widespread 2-4 inches with the potential for locally higher amounts. The only small positive will be that the system will be progressive with most of the totals likely coming in the period between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning (as mentioned still some minor timing discrepancies). As mentioned in the previous discussion there is a conditional tornado/severe threat if the remnants of Ida track far enough northwest which would result in the unstable warm sector encompassing more of our CWA. Fortunately, the consensus outside of the GFS would confine this threat to Delmarva and far southern NJ, but if a GFS-like track over the heart of the CWA were to verify the threat could reach up into the I-95 corridor.

Looks like Dobbins is done for the season. MRI will confirm shortly. Totally sucks. Feel bad for him as he was likely going to have a monster season. Ravens will manage with Gus the Bus and others, as long as the OL is healthy and gels with the new pieces.

He may see a spin up dust devil though.

Like this? https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092021#tabInner1

Feels comparatively amazing out there this morning. Dewpoint is 66 with a temp of 69 and a breeze. Just did some mowing and did not sweat at all. Incredible. The backdoor front made it through, but it wont last long as the front will be heading back north in short order and the soup will be back on.

Dramatic and impressive on the visible. And scary. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Damn. Impressive but very ominous. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

150 mph and 935 mb. Ida could reach Cat 5. Not that it will make any real difference. This is not good.

With a more NW track, looks like there may be a decent risk of severe for I-95 and points east. Mount Holly mentioning the possibility in their AM AFD. Models are converging on the eventual track of the remnant low, with the 00z CMC making a noticeable shift northward, much more in line with the ECMWF/GFS. The consensus track would lead to the heaviest rainfall axis generally in the northern half of the CWA, with alarming QPF of 2-5+ inches in a broad region along and north of the track of the low. Meanwhile, the warm sector may sneak into the southern CWA, where a threat of strong to severe storms would exist (given sufficient instability and strong vertical shear). In short, the latest models suggest a multi-faceted and rather impactful event for the region. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts, as we continue to fine-tune the forecast axis of heaviest rainfall and the areas with the highest risk of severe weather.

Always have to factor in the yard to yard disparity, and (unrealistic) expectations with some of the weenie posts. I don't expect anymore than 2-3 weeks of legit winter here. The December storm was cold rain, and so winter didn't 'arrive' until late Jan. But, there was in fact a solid 3 week period where it looked and felt like winter, despite not having any real cold around. The negative AO/NAO combined with peak climo for winter weather got it done. Without the favorable HL pattern, the Pac puke would likely have completely overwhelmed and I might have ended up with something more like the previous winter, instead of hitting median snowfall.

Why play your best players in a meaningless preseason game? I don't get it. It was shaping up to be a big season for JK Dobbins...now, playing this season at all is in question.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Booming thunder here- sounds like cannons going off. Stuff coming in from the west and something developing on an outflow boundary moving in from the NE. Not sure any of it will actually hit here but sounds damn impressive.

85/77 Just disgusting. Grass and clover is overgrown but Its Friday and happy hour. Not going out there. Need to deal with it sometime this weekend, maybe.