CAPE

Misery loves company.

Agreed, but it did move towards the better guidance this run.

NAM trying with the coastal at the end lol

Another potential issue with the GFS (again) is that it is more aggressive with the cold. It is significantly colder than other guidance while precip is falling. CMC and Euro are marginal at the surface.

I wouldn't mind that either, but the GFS has been a bit unsteady lately. Still think 1-3 seems reasonable, maybe a bit more down your way if the GFS has a clue.

Consult with DT.

A coating of snow on SB Sunday following a Spring-like Saturday would be lovely.

Throw out the NAM, which is a complete outlier, (and should almost always be thrown out on principle) the preponderance of guidance suggests a minor event on the order of an inch to maybe as much as 3 in a few places. Any changes that occur going forward would probably be minor, with a better chance of it going the wrong way given the overall fast/progressive nature of the pattern.

6z EPS is slightly west with the trough, and mean low position is slightly closer to the coast. Trough still positively tilted and results in the same general outcome.

If we want to see any impacts from the coastal yes. As it stands the southern vort sliding up on the east side of the developing trough is the focus for any snow we get as depicted. That also induces the coastal low, but too late. Shift that all west some and well.. maybe.

GFS has trended towards the Euro at h5, with more of a NS vorticity lobe rather than an elongated, sharper shortwave more conducive for a phase with the southern vort, which would result in a sharper, deeper trough allowing for a bigger event. Instead we are seeing the depiction of a broader trough with the vorticity disjointed and strung out, and little to no impact from the coastal low, which is too far east. 12z yesterday that produced a significant event- 6z run this morning-

The problem with getting any love from the actual coastal is the NS is still largely acting as a wrecking ball, broadening the overall trough, and shoving everything east. The coastal low develops over the baroclinic boundary offshore and gets going too far east.

Good luck with that!

Looking at the GFS over the past few model cycles, the primary NS shortwave has trended more towards a vorticity lobe(lacks sharpness) and the attempted phase with the southern shortwave is sloppy(partial/late).The precip we get as depicted is associated with the southern vorticity max that slides up ahead of the broadening trough as the NS dives in behind. This southern vort has trended sharper/ further SE. The NAM fwiw has it further NW. Don't have time to go through all the guidance but suffice to say some changes in the subtle interactions are still possible.

Mount Holly this morning.. lol looks like they decided to forego all the details for what probably amounts to a minor event . Not many changes were needed in the long term with only some subtle differences compared to earlier. After a spring-like day Saturday with very mild temps and a good deal of sunshine, a cold front crosses the area late. This will bring some sct showers and sharply colder air Sat night and into Sunday. The front only slows as it moves across the area so the showers may last into the overnight. A weak low develops on the front and brings more steady precip (mostly snow) to the lower Delaware Valley, Delmarva and much of NJ Sun morning and into the afternoon. A small accumulation is possible, but not certain at this point.

Objectively better, even for your yard.

Yea better snowtv but the gfs just took away 8 flooking inches GFS kinda sucks lately, despite all the "New King" hyperbole. I never expected the 10" BS to be reality though. 2-4 is still a reasonable outcome.

Better

12z for comparison

Better. One more panel would have been nice. EPS should be interesting.

Oops forgot about the 18z Euro.

Touchy is the word to describe just about every storm this winter. Subtle differences in the timing and interplay make big differences in the outcome. The nature of fast, progressive flow. On to 0z!

Trough somewhat broader/not as deep. It simply doesn't come together quick enough. The fronto stuff is weaker/further south and the coastal low gets going later/further east. It all went the wrong way lol.