CAPE

Damn lol. Haven't paid attention to the other thread today. What have I missed?

I would think so.

The GFS has incrementally been getting onboard with the rest of the guidance over the last few runs, but 18z was a pretty big adjustment in that direction.

Mount Holly AFD. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Blizzard warning hoisted later tomorrow for coastal DE. Major winter storm to impact the region Friday night through Saturday... Bottom line up front: While there continue be some differences in our forecast guidance, confidence is high enough for our coastal zones of NJ and southern DE to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. The remaining zones farther north through the urban corridor remain in a Watch for now as there is still some uncertainty regarding weather amounts here will reach or exceed warning thresholds as we`re still thinking it`ll be right around the 4-7 inch storm total range. And with that it should be said there has been no major change to forecast thinking as most of the latest model guidance (excluding outlier GFS which appears to be too far east) supports storm total snowfall forecast made last night or even suggests amounts will be just a bit higher in some spots, especially near the coast. We also have growing concerns strong winds will be an issue with gusts of 40 to 50 mph near the coast and 30 to 40 mph inland by Saturday. This will lead to reduced visibilities with blowing / drifting snow. Also some (minor) coastal flooding concerns further discussed in the section below. Getting into the details, rapidly deepening low pressure will move from a position off the SE CONUS coast Friday evening to a point east of Cape Cod by Saturday evening. As this occurs snow will become steadier and heavier and heavier from south to north through Friday evening, reaching the I-95 corridor near or shortly after midnight. It`s when we get into the overnight period we will start to see some periods of heavier snow develop at least over southern DE and coastal NJ...potentially reaching as far north as the I-95 corridor by late at night. Northerly winds will also ramp up through the overnight as well,..reaching 20-30 gusting 35 to 45 mph by Saturday morning near the coast. Temperatures will be cold and we are confident this will be an all snow event, even near the coast. Lows Friday night will range from the teens over much of eastern PA into northern NJ (single digits in Poconos) to low to mid farther S/E. Wind chills will make it feel colder though! For Saturday, intense low will be east of the mid Atlantic coast to start the day as it continues to rapidly deepen. Snow will be ongoing for much of the area with northerly winds continuing to ramp up as well. Snow, potentially heavy at times, near and S/E of the urban corridor will continue through Saturday morning before gradually starting to wind down west to east in the afternoon. It should be noted though that strong winds will continue right through the day as they shift from northerly in the morning to NW heading into the afternoon. Expect winds gusting 30 to potentially as high as 40 mph inland with gusts of 40 to 50 mph near the coast. This will create significantly reduced visibilities, especially near the coast where visibilities could be near zero at times. Temperatures won`t go up much, generally holding in the 20s so combined with the winds this will create bitter wind chills in the single digits to below zero.

A common trend across all guidance the last day has been a significant reduction in precip to the SW over much of central VA and NC. That places eastern VA MD/DE on the SW edge now, and even though most guidance still indicates significant snow, there is bust potential with these set-ups, given the already offshore track, if the deepening is delayed. I think the immediate coast is good for a period of heavy snow (and impressive wind) but just west of there towards I-95 is a bit precarious.

I never drink soda, unless it's diet coke in a mixed drink. Or diet tonic water.

What time will the snow begin there you think?

Yes. makes great soup.

Agree, but not overcooked. I steam it with salt and pepper, garlic, then drizzle it with olive oil and a squeeze of lemon. Fantastic.

Avocado would be my number 2 fruit, maybe even tied with banana. I can eat avocado with anything.

I do like blueberries on my Greek Yogurt, not gonna lie. Bananas are number one for me, but not on the list.

Peach, Cantaloupe, Apple, Cherry, Orange, Blueberry, Pineapple, Pear, Plum

Its going to be in lock step with the op now. Op went east a tad so it was expected.

Everyone should read the disco I posted earlier. Folks along and even NW of I-95 should be pretty interested in the next few model cycles, in addition to those of us further east. A few inches in those locations is still a possibility, maybe more if a 0z CMC like solution ends up more correct.

I am just NW of the 0.5" line on the 6z run.

Thanks. I am keeping my expectations on the lower end, something like 3-5". Hard to just completely discount one of the top 2 globals, and the Euro has been suggesting the best lift may not make it this far NW the last couple runs. With the track of the low so far offshore, and cold/dry Arctic air feeding in, some dry air is going to work in on the NW side and I think that will keep the snow here more in the light to moderate category with the heavy stuff further SE.

6z Euro is largely the same, but over the last few runs it has incrementally shifted eastward, focusing the heavier snow in the immediate coastal areas. psu fringe alert for my yard lol.

12

Notable improvement on the 6z GFS. A step towards consensus.

Looking forward to @MillvilleWx's morning take on the situation.

Have you been paying attention? You could have simply read the post that preceded yours to gain a little insight.

Current forecast is for 4-8" here, 7-13" in S DE. Seems about right excluding the GFS, but decent bust potential with all the intricacies involved.

Morning AFD from Mount Holly. Interesting, excellent, and detailed. It has been a live-or-die-by-every-model-timestep sort of night here at the office. And what the models give, they also take away, which basically describes the model variability we have seen the past couple of days with the potential winter storm for our region Friday night and Saturday. The 00z suite has made a notable consensus shift westward with the low tracking just off the coast, but the high volatility/variability remains. The 00z GFS is a far-east outlier solution and basically brings little snow to the CWA for the whole event. Meanwhile, the 00z NAM returned the snow to our area, in a large return of departure from the 18z NAM no-show (no-snow) event. The 00z CMC brings a blockbuster storm to the area, with widespread warning criteria south and east of the Fall Line; the 00z ECMWF is only somewhat drier than its 12z predecessor run. The 00z UKMET went sharply west, with meaningful QPF/snow for much of the area. The model volatility with this system has been something to behold. Such run-to-run spread is typical/expected for these types of events, given the highly complicated interdependent phenomena involved. However, simple analysis of the spread in the National Blend of Models is enlightening; the 04z NBM V4.0 (V4.1) 50th percentile storm total snow for the Philly area was around 1.5 (1) inch(es). The 75th percentile storm total snow was around 8 (10) inches, or roughly an order-of-magnitude difference between the median and the upper quartile. Bottom line here: the storm total snow forecast remains highly uncertain and subject to large changes in subsequent forecasts. Observation-wise, it will be critical to assess three regions/phenomena as the event unfolds: (1) the strength/depth, orientation, and speed of a northern-stream digging vort max through the Midwest on Friday morning, (2) the orientation and speed of a southern-stream vort max in the southern Plains around this same time, and (3) the low-level response to the phasing trough near/off the Southeast coast Friday night (e.g., the 850-mb heights and winds). The progressive solutions have a more compact and faster northern-stream vort max and a slower southern-stream vort max, which results in upper low development farther east (and generally too far east for our region to see substantive snow); the snowier solutions acquire phasing and neutral to negative tilt of the large- scale trough more quickly (and thus, farther west). Trends in the low-level response are obvious Friday night -- the NAM/CMC (aside from the errant 18z NAM simulation) are positioning the 850-mb low/trough farther southwest. The GFS is much noisier, exhibiting little trend. Notably, the 00z GEFS featured unusually low spread, which makes me wholly suspicious of the deterministic and ensemble output from its suite. With the model camps making the GFS more and more of an outlier, tonight`s forecast is generally a non-GFS consensus blend. This preserves a considerable amount of continuity to fields of importance such as PoPs, QPF, and snow amounts. The main changes were to sharpen the gradient of snow totals near/northwest of the I- 95 corridor, with 1-3 inch totals northwest of the Fall Line, 3-6 inch totals in the urban corridor and immediately adjacent areas, and 6-12 inch totals roughly from Easton, MD, to New Brunswick, NJ. Again, there is enormous uncertainty with these forecast totals. If the more progressive solutions pan out, very little snow may occur in a large chunk of the area. If the slower/stronger solutions pan out, heavier totals would occur at least to the Fall Line. Continue to monitor the forecasts, as large changes may occur leading up to the event.

Had a feeling the 0z suite would reel the weenies back in