CAPE
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The extended products are somewhat useful for a week or so beyond the end of the ens runs imo. I don't hate this look at all for the first week of Jan. There is a mechanism to deliver some cold air with a more favorable Aleutian low position/-EPO. Now is it real? Who knows.
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Not sure what 'chill' means. I would assume retracted. This is extended- This is retracted- Ofc it's not this simple. The strength and position of the Aleutian low is influenced by other factors. There is a TPV lobe positioned such that it dumps energy into that vortex, generally keeping it deeper/further east than ideal for our purposes.
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Seems there are some misconceptions about the Pacific jet, extensions/retractions, ENSO... and what to 'root' for. This might be a good read for some. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-jet-stream-and-el-nino
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Light coating on the grass and cars. Snowed pretty hard on the drive in with a notable coating all the way to the north side of Easton.
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Steady light to moderate snow but probably gonna take a death band to get stickage. The more impressive returns are off to the east now. Temp 34.
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Some flakes mixed in here now. Temp down to 36. Just over 2" of rain.
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Just broke an inch for the day. Radar actually looks pretty good now. Most guidance had 2"+ here so probably won't get there.
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Deluge here now. Overall this has underperformed. Much of the day was rain free or just light rain. Even saw a peek of sun. Temp is 62.
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The NE PAC trough is too dominant right now. That feature is a fixture in a Nino but we don't want it to be a monster vortex parked in the GoA. Right now there is TPV energy feeding into it, but all the extended products still indicate some weakening and retrograding towards the Aleutians into early Jan, with improvement in the PNA/EPO domains. Some improvement in the NA would also be really helpful. We watch and wait.
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Great win. Showed they aren't just frontrunners. That would have been a horrific loss, and their third at home.
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I don't hate him at all. He is just infuriating at times, in key moments, and he never learns.
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Thank you thank you thank you Mr Wallace. Gutsy performance by Lamar and the offense. The defense is soo overrated.
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He truly is a dope.
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The latter.
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Classic Harbaugh clock (mis)management. Lets not use 2 timeouts and settle for a field goal.
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Defense looks flat. Now Hamilton is out. Rams look sharp. Maybe the Ravens ability to come back will be tested. Haven't really seen that this season.
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Started raining here a little after 10am. Heard a few rumbles of thunder. 0.55" so far.
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3km went from 0.5 to 5.5" on the 10:1 map here lol. Forecast seems about right- rain/snow mix, little or no accumulation.
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I don't see significant can kicking at all. First, consider that this is an extended tool. In the first case we are looking out to day 29, in the second day 23. Given the smoothing in the features with time on the extended guidance, the looks seem pretty similar. In addition, there is subjective interpretation. I might think the run initializing on the 9th looks a little better in the NA for example.
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It does. Still holds significant weight, imo.
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Slight. Given other factors, not enough to make any difference.
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Are we now in the model hallucination stage of the program, preceding the radar hallucination stage?
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It's literally the same, outside of minor run to run noise.
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I would love this to reflect ground truth, but it won't be (as most of us know). At this point I think there is a decent shot of non accumulating snow in the air east of the Fall line, and an inch or 2 up your way, with several inches in the western highlands. That would be an area wide win imo given how this looked not too long ago.
