CAPE

This might be a period where we have a more reasonable shot. Colder air in place(unlike next week's event) with the boundary to our SE, and indications of a few waves moving along it.

You are being overly simplistic. Probably on purpose.

If I were in N central MD I might be a little intrigued at this point. Certainly looks good for Central/NE PA into NYS. The setup looks marginal at best for snow in most of our region, and for the MA coastal plain any significant frozen seems pretty unlikely.

A hell of a lot would have to go right. The timing of the ocean low that merges with another vortex squeezed SE and becomes the 50-50, and the spacing between it and the low that is/becomes the storm is one critical factor. Need enough confluence, which impacts the surface high strength, and ofc a bunch of other subtle interactions we just cant know at this point. It could work!!

The 0z GEFS was already moving in the direction of a further south coastal low development. EPS as well.

A GFS op run at range, but not out of the realm of possibility. I would hold off though..

No one should pay any attention to the 6z GFS.

On the 0z runs the GEFS and CMC ens trend the PNA to neutral/slightly positive by the 20th. EPS keeps it somewhat negative.

Looking at the advertised evolution of the pattern mid month and beyond, with h5 +height anomalies in both the EPO and NAO space, through wave interactions (specifically the amplifying EPO upper ridge) the models are once again indicating a TPV lobe cutting off underneath and becoming displaced southward over Hudson Bay. There have been hints of this on recent runs, but it's more prominent on the 0z GEFS. That's in a good spot and sets up the possibility of a more classic sustained NAO block with colder air on our doorstep.

Pretty good odds out that way there will be multiple snow chances leading up to and including Xmas, given how the currently depicted pattern looks. Whatever falls should mostly be able to stick around during that period.

Wasn't that the year where it snowed for Thanksgiving(more SE of I-95), Dec was super cold, the Bay froze, then by mid Jan winter was over?

If the 18z GFS simulation were to come to fruition, a quick chase up to central PA might be considered for late next week.

A snowman19 sock seemingly- this moron has also been around shitting up threads for years.

Also has a more legit looking -NAO.

Yeah, there are issues in any pattern, even ones we identify as favorable overall. The orientation/character of the EPO ridge makes a difference as to how much cold can make it eastward. The -PNA tendency needs to be kept in check. A -NAO will help encourage more favorable storm tracks and inhibit eastern ridging. Details we just can't know yet.

Looks like there will be at least some help in the NAO domain, but need the PNA to hang around neutral. Always a fight in a Nina.

Impressive -EPO across guidance now, so it appears we will have the mechanism to deliver some pretty legit cold beyond mid month. Seeing hints on the ens means of possible waves tracking along the boundary to our south, but no clear signal at this range.

We got us another one.

Foggy here too. Was worse last evening.

The 'new favorable pattern' concept over the last few runs on the means, from mid month forward-- a solidly -AO, a bit stronger -EPO, a little less -NAO. I'll take the slight tradeoff that tilts a bit more towards a favorable Pacific in a Nina. Looks colder too. Just don't want the EPO ridge to become too positively tilted, esp if the -NAO weakens.

Can't really compare a smoothed/course mean to a high resolution op run extrapolated out 15 days. Load h5 on the 6z op run, put it on animate, squint a little, and notice all the red in the high latitudes with vortices flying around all over the midlatitudes. That's the general look we want. The interactions and timing among these features will change significantly from run to run and result in wildly different outcomes.

A -AO/-NAO/-EPO trifecta can get some decent cold into Canada, then into the central and eastern US. In that setup, a slightly negative to neutral PNA can facilitate disturbances entering the west coast further south, instead of exclusively relying on waves coming over the top with a stacked -EPO/+PNA ridge. That could be dry-ish.

The GEFS h5 pattern over the last few runs has trended to a better overall look across the top for the period beyond mid month. Good sign.