CAPE

The biggest difference I see on the 12z run is up top, with the strength/timing of the TPV vorticity lobe rotating south and the vortex in the 50-50 position. The op run made a favorable move and the mean really picked up on it. Could easily change the next model cycle.

Hoping for a solid event somewhere within a few hours drive over the next 2 weeks. I can take a mini vacay anytime during that period.

Check the low level temps. If it's a weak pos it is probably rain/non accumulating snow.

WB has been shitting the blinds lately with the EPS.

All the years of doing this, and you guys still expect some sort of consistency from op runs 7+ days out lol. The 'trends' are found on the ens means.

The general pattern progression and timing on the ens runs hasn't changed. In my mind beyond the 25th is where the chances for frozen for most of our region would begin to increase. The 23rd has looked like a Central/N PA and north event on the means for awhile, with possibly the NW fringes of our area having some minor impacts. The Ji storm around the 27th has looked marginal for cold but certainly isn't dead. Beyond that is where the best potential lies but ofc we are 10 days away. Folks get tired of the waiting. With the depicted h5 setup, the cold will build and be close by, but the bleed southeastward probably comes incrementally with multiple events putting down some snow to our north first.

That storm was wicked here. All out blizzard. Was difficult to measure, plus falling on top of what was still otg. Once in a lifetime winter.

2013-14 and 14-15, and tracking the one big storm in 2016- that period was overall the best on here imo. Plenty of tracking that actually yielded results, the poetry thread, and Jebman's epic rants. Good times.

I am sure the question will come up- and I went and looked this up as I wasn't sure and think this is correct- Roman was only extended through the 2022 season, which means the Ravens don't have to fire him. They can simply let him move on, sort of like they did with Wink last year. Or they can extend him. Don't even..

Not an expert but I am guessing this isn't a good look if you are a Stratospheric Polar Vortex.

@ravensrule Is this true?

Love avocado toast. With a yolky egg on top.

Something like this.

The 23rd maybe. Doesn't look that 'good' to me at this point, but given your location it may be more interesting.

6z GEFS. Has that look..

In order to get a good outcome for the period around the 27th, we don't want the energy rolling over the Pac ridge to phase with the NS vort rotating down around the TPV. Worst case we end up with Ralphs's dreaded avocado scenario. At the very least it will continue to delay the progression of the cold southeastward.

That is the sort of evolution we need though to get something to track underneath with cold in place.

Coffee stout work?

He is pretty good at the latter, when given opportunities. Roman has no feel for who is best suited for specific situations. Dobbins wasn't happy after the game, and a couple games ago Gus completely disappeared, and in the post game presser even Harbaugh openly criticized that. Roman should be gone within a week.

Might be, but if you are looking at the mean be careful taking surface temps too literally. A range of possibilities for around the 27th on the current GEFS, including not much of anything and cold with precip suppressed south. eta- 6 hour panel; there are a few with snow preceding this timeframe.

Looks like they are making up for it now.

Roman was in 'passing mode' lol. What a simpleton.

The period beyond the 25th still looks pretty favorable with colder air in place and SE ridge suppressed, and indications of multiple waves moving along the boundary. The 23rd is still worth watching mainly for those further north. Nice h5 look on the EPS here. It has a more prominent -NAO and a somewhat colder look than the the GEFS.

Dobbins AGAIN underutilized. 13 carries. Give him the ball instead of the sneak and they score. Mind boggling how awful Roman is, and that they have stuck with him. Done with Harbaugh too. The clock management debacle is on him. Go get Payton.