CAPE

Weakening NIna with ENSO neutral favored moving forward into Feb, plus we have seen the atmosphere exhibit Nino tendencies to this point. Mostly overly simplistic 'thinking' from certain twitter weather geeks imo.

The ridge amplifying and breaking over the top pulls that vorticity lobe underneath, then the amplifying ridge behind kicks it east and it goes negative in time for some surface development off the coast, but it's a bit too far north for us. Lots going on and the flow is progressive, but it works out for NE this time.

0z EPS suggests multiple chances between the 10th and 15th. General signals are there but members are all over the place on evolution as expected. For now it seems like the storm mentioned on the op run at 240 is favored to track NW at least initially, then possible coastal development. Around the 15th there appears to be another opportunity with a colder look and a possible coastal storm in a more favorable location. eta- the latter appears to be mixed between something cutting west, some sort of Miller B, or possibly another wave(along the coast) right after on the members. Too far out to get into specifics obv. There are chances with a trend towards colder mid month.

Next to nothing. The available cold is marginal late next week, so a progressive, weak wave might produce a light sprinkle or mangled flake in the lowlands.

Lmao there is barely any precip. Where there is in the mountains with some upslope it's snow as depicted, but due to the fast flow/positively tilted/damping wave, it just dries up east of there.

lol you seem to have a lot of misconceptions about this. I kinda hate the labels myself, but based on the definitions that are used, we get plenty of snow from miller B/hybrid events.

Suggestive of a coastal storm around the 15th from a shortwave that sheds off the retrograding trough and tracks eastward as the PNA ridge pops. Implies some sort of a Miller B evolution per surface pressure and precip panels. Pretty strong signal at this range.

12z EPS is trying for the late week thing.

A late developing somewhat offshore low is a good way for your area to get snow, as long as the airmass is decently cold.

It's not out of nowhere, but when I looked at the surface depiction after h5 I expected any surface development to be too far offshore.

12z GFS somehow manages to get a little something going along the coast despite multiple pieces of vorticity intertwining within a positively tilted trough while an amplified ridge is bearing down right on top.

Temps do cool some in our source region towards mid month as the Pacific firehose pulls back and the trough finally retrogrades over the Aleutians. If that look is real and holds, we should have more cold available going forward.

Light rain here now and a bit foggy still. Fog was worse earlier. A balmy 49.

Still a signal on the mean though.

Looking even further out, there are hints for something around the 15th, with a more favorable longwave pattern established and somewhat colder air available.

Other than the Friday-Sat deal that looks dead for now, it appears the period around the 12th is realistically the next trackable threat. Using the EPS depiction here, but the signal has generally been there across ens guidance. As the trough out west lifts, a shortwave is ejected eastward with a ridge beginning to develop along the west coast. The wave is approaching the 4 corners in this panel and tracks eastward towards the Gulf coast states. Low pressure develops in the mid south then tracks towards the east coast. At h5 +height anomalies develop near Hudson Bay as low pressure is organizing over the southeast. Not ideal, but this general setup used to work well for a moderate winter storm in the MA. Temps are an issue verbatim- still not much cold available during this period as depicted.

Just for fun the latest CFS extended run at h5 for the period beyond mid month. Not hating it- looks more Nino than Nina, which continues the general idea we have seen thus far.

GEFS has a little something at least. Temps marginal verbatim but places up near the PA line towards Ralph world might see something modest based on the mean.

The GFS gave it a go.

I'm drinking a Founders Backwoods Bastard, a bourbon barrel aged scotch ale, for New Years eve eve HH. Let's see what HH GFS do.

Looks a lot more like the Euro.

Yeah I mentioned the Hudson Bay "block" when this first showed up on guidance I guess almost a week ago now when Weather Will was liking that period due to the snow maps. The GFS/GEFS may be wrong, but it has been steady with the depiction of how this evolves and the features involved, although it has moved it up in time a bit- it was initially more of a Jan 8th deal. It would be an interesting case to test.

It is, but the GFS/GEFS has been doing this for many runs. The timing and position of that vortex needs to be perfect.

To be clear, relative warmth a day or 2 ahead of a storm isn't the same as having a storm underway and waiting for cold to arrive before the precip shuts off. We see that a lot and it is a high probability fail. Plenty of places are typically mild leading up to a snowstorm. Look at Denver. The storm early last January was all snow, so the cold was in place first. The issue with the possible storm for the 6-7th(other than it only exists on the GFS) is the cold coming in behind the mild mid-week storm doesn't look very cold on guidance, so then we have one of our other classic fail modes- energetic low will generate its own cold air!

It does happen. Last Jan was an example, but the main difference is the cold coming in was legit and sharp. Even though temps were 60 leading in, it started off as snow and much of it fell with temps in the low to mid 20s. The way this pattern seems to be evolving on the means, it looks like more of a gradual transition to somewhat colder. That doesn't mean we can't get a similar result.