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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    EPS > GEFS
  2. CAPE
    EPS is colder than the GEFS for that period.
  3. CAPE
    GEFS likes the 5th for a storm. As is typical, the mean follows the op with an OV low and coastal transfer. Verbatim it's a bit warm. The 6z run had a similar evolution for that timeframe. The GoA low would be the primary issue for this period. Subject to change though this far out.
  4. CAPE
    Improvement on the GEFS over the last few model cycles. The 0z run has +h5 heights centered over Baffin, and the Pacific look is somewhat better. The exact MJO progression is likely the biggest driver of the Pacific pattern for the early/mid Dec period. The latest runs are generally weaker in phase 3, and take it into the COD before/just as it gets into phase 4.
  5. CAPE
    ^The EPS continues to indicate a much improved look in the NAO domain over the last few runs for that period. It has gone from a flat central Canada ridge- more of a Pacific puke mild look- to a pretty impressive -NAO for the first week of Dec. Still not a very a cold look with that GoA trough. My guess is the less favorable Pac will be temporary. GEPS has a ridge popping over AK towards the end of its run.
  6. CAPE
    He is focusing too much on the anomalies(pretty colors) instead of the height lines. On LR tools it's the 'general idea'. Some get it, some don't.
  7. CAPE
    lmao no chance. you do you dude. we all contribute in our own way.
  8. CAPE
  9. CAPE
    Here is the pattern progression on the Euro extended based off the 0z run, into mid Dec. Heading towards an unmitigated disaster and ultimate failure?
  10. CAPE
    It's a long range snapshot on a smoothed ens mean. Chill lol.
  11. CAPE
    There is some improvement on the 12z EPS compared to 0z in Canada/NAO domain (and to a lesser degree the NPac) for the end of the first week of met winter. We shall see which way the pattern goes beyond Dec 3- some of that answer depends on the MJO progression. It could just be a brief reshuffle and a short lived milder period before a mid month reload. Just a few more model cycles..
  12. CAPE
    The GEFS/EPS have been depicting a nice a ridge in the NAO domain over multiple runs for the very end of Nov/first few days of Dec, induced by the deep upper trough that digs south, brings the cold shot and shifts NE over eastern Canada. After the first few days of Dec it morphs into more of a Hudson Bay ridge though, as the TPV shifts north/EPO ridge breaks down. The GEPS seems to be following the same progression in the NA, just taking a few more days. The PAC is a better look at the end of the GEPS run though.
  13. CAPE
    Not directly related to our weather in the near term, but beginning later this week the longwave pattern will support cold air draining southeast from Siberia across the very warm Sea of Japan, and sea effect snow season in NW Japan will begin. Continued cold air excursions should also aid in cooing the warm pool east of Japan, and the parade of NPAC cyclones along the polar boundary will help establish the Aleutian low for winter. A persistent Aleutian low is favored in a Nino, and if that parks in a favorable location, one (positive) effect will be to help cool the waters north of Hawaii, encouraging the PDO to trend more towards neutral.
  14. CAPE
    For the first time in awhile a forecast of widespread heavy rain across the area delivered. Seems just about everywhere received at least 1.5", most places 2"+. Hopefully this occurs a few times this winter with precip of the frozen variety.
  15. CAPE
    It has been awhile. WDI?
  16. CAPE
    2.05" There was a period of torrential rain overnight, like summertime lol. Woke me up.
  17. CAPE
    The guidance continues to hint at a wave or waves ejecting eastward from the southwest for the end of the month. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the biggest issue(other than climo) is associated with energy dropping southeastward in the flow between the western ridge and the southward displaced TPV. Busy northern stream. Ideally a wave taking the southern route would be timed such that it can remain intact as it progresses eastward without being directly underneath or in the immediate wake of NS vorticity. Some sort of a phase is another possibility. Guidance struggles with these types of patterns at range so we keep monitoring. Looking ahead to early Dec, there are some mixed signals on the ensembles, partly associated with the MJO progression. In general it appears the primary TPV will retreat well to the northwest and a ridge will build into central Canada, while we lose the Aleutian low/ -EPO. The NS would become more 'quiet' in this scenario, but the central and eastern US would become milder. There may be a brief window the first few days Dec for a wave to track underneath as the pattern transitions with some cold still around. Goes without saying that the risk for frozen in the lowlands is pretty low for this entire period. If the current MJO continues to progress/weaken, we should see a return to a colder pattern mid December.
  18. CAPE
    ...the Ji pre-Christmas meltdown will commence.
  19. CAPE
    And then it will probably get milder for a spell with the MJO propagating over the Indian ocean and eastward to the MC (phase 4) Although forecast to weaken beyond that, there will probably be a milder period after the chilly end of the month/first few days of Dec. MJO progressing through phase 3 and into phase 4 favors ridging into the central US. Will you be able to keep it together?
  20. CAPE
    The end of the month into early Dec h5 pattern on the ens means suggests a pretty cold period for the eastern US, but for now it looks as though the baroclinic boundary will be just a bit too far offshore. A little too much NS influence with that TPV position. Long way off so that could change. Regardless, the advertised looks as we move into met winter are very encouraging.
  21. CAPE
    Latest MJO forecasts- GEFS takes the wave into phase 3 as it rapidly weakens, and entering the COD as it gets to phase 4. Euro weakens it as it progresses through phase 2 and into the COD before phase 3. All the models on the CPC site have the convection suppressed at the end of Nov.
  22. CAPE
    Extended products depict a continuation of Aleutian low/AK ridge well into December. Good sign as we move forward into early winter.
  23. CAPE
    low of 33 here
  24. CAPE
    Thankfully no. Love to see it.
  25. CAPE
    Go Browns. No idea why they didn't challenge when Pickett got sacked. That was clearly a safety.
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