CAPE

I'm thinking maybe that wave drops SE and becomes the trigger for the following coastal storm around the 27th.

Kind of an ideal look leading up to an east coast snowstorm, other than a chunk of the PV is coming with it lol.

Shit at least give me some rain followed by a flash freeze or something.

Many more iterations to come. It can only get better from cold and dry.

Supply is meager lol. Drank a 90 Min IPA. Now having a glass of red wine before dinner.

The Mean looks almost exactly like the GEFS at 6z. 12z not so much.

Who said we can't?

36/21 Might see one mangled flake and a few sleet pellets before the steady rain gets going with rising temps. We do this so well.

The 23rd should be interesting, even if it doesn't produce much snow. Not sure we won't see some significant changes from what's currently being depicted. Kinda hoping to see something a bit unusual, with at least a little shot of snow.

I still think the 26-28th window should present a chance for a coastal storm with cold established. 12z EPS strongly hinting, as have previous runs of the GEFS.

As long as we don't go dry. A bit of a split flow will help in a Nina.

Latest GEFSX continues the cold pattern into Jan.

Looking beyond next week there would appear to be another storm chance around the 27th on the GEFS. The cold should be entrenched at this point with increased chances for a more favorable track. Might be a bit too offshore if anything. Pretty nice h5 look.

Even if the EPS is more correct we can still get a good outcome. Would be a more convoluted setup, but the cold coming in looks legit. Worst case is we ridge and warm some out in front, get an inland track with rain, then cold and dry behind. That is always a default fail mode for us lol.

5 day mean ending on the 27th. Pretty decent given we have something trackable in that window.

The way things look we may get a good test next winter with a possible moderate CP based Nino, which typically has a favorable HL pattern and storm track with active STJ, but not very cold. Historically our bread and butter for above avg snow.

The biggest difference I see between the Euro and GFS ens in the upper level pattern evolution into next week is wrt the TPV that gets pinched off/displaced southward under the anticyclonic wave break as the EPO ridge amplifies and bridges with the upper ridge in the NAO space. GEFS involves that energy in 2 pieces(troughs) while the EPS dumps most of it in the 'trailing' trough that then digs further westward. For late next week, the GEFS ends up with this look, which implies coastal low development in a more favorable location- right along the coast or slightly offshore and further south. The EPS ends up with this look, which is more conducive for inland/north low pressure development.

There are always a range of possible outcomes for every pattern- some will be "good" even in those patterns that are less than ideal. This was the h5 pattern leading up to the big snowstorm for the lowlands of the MA early Jan last winter. Typical Nina Aleutian ridge, but displaced somewhat poleward, not the greatest trough position, with some SE ridge, and a transient/bootleg -NAO.

We have talked about that one a few times here. I was Living south of Westminster at that time. Only legit thundersnow I have experienced. Total whiteout, flash freeze with the heavy snow and sudden drop in temp. Rare event for sure. Only thing that came close for me was the Feb 2015 deal.

Are we still closing the blinds?

Love me some avocado. On/with anything, anytime.

Cold and dry behind it. Maybe a clipper incoming for NC. Hope someone doesn't engage in a meltdown.

Might not drop a lot of snow, but this would be fun AF.

That is one hellacious Arctic cold front on HH GFS.