CAPE

Pretty workable look for early March on the EPS. Legit -NAO dipole mitigating the awful Pacific enough to erase the SE ridge.

A bit of a signal showing on the mean but a ton of spread among the members with lows all over the place. Still a ways out there obviously, but the look at H5 has cold pressing, suggesting the boundary may be to our south- a rare occurrence this winter and a necessary first step. Flatten that fucking SE ridge.

I'm not super enthused despite seeing the -NAO on guidance. We will see if the shorter wavelengths help going forward, but that Aleutian ridge is just locked in and doesn't seem to want to nudge eastward even a little bit. We probably will need a monster west-based block for a time to get a few legit shots.

If you are talking about the 25-26th, there has been a weak signal for some frozen on the means. I have made a few posts about it. As for whether it happens or not, who knows. GFS op has been consistently hinting, but the GEFS and EPS suggest the better chance is further north(shocker), which is probably how it will go. CMC ens is a bit better for our region. It's highly uncertain how much cold will be available for that period, but has the general look of some sort of frozen front end favoring places inland at elevation for our region. Probably a better chance of something the first few days of March based on the depicted pattern progression.

Battle of the atmospheric blocks.

Sure, but it's the Commanders. Going from Mahomes as QB to....lmao. I wish him luck. This isn't the path he should have to take to get a HC job.

Just effin with ya. Not a big believer in the SSW impacts, but once in awhile it works out. Getting late though. The SPV will be naturally weakening anyway as we move through March, so I am skeptical this does much.

Why would Bieniemy want the Commanders OC job? It's a lateral move but risky that this will improve his chances to get a HC job. YOU ARE THE OC OF A TEAM WITH MAHOMES! Seems like a desperate move. A shame he has to do this prove he can be the guy, without Reid. Odd he isn't already a HC somewhere.

lol you are so addicted to the damn snow maps.

Next shot after the 25th. Op run but seeing a general signal on the ensembles for the first couple days of March.

@Ralph Wiggum We got guacamole here.

Op runs and ensembles keep suggesting the 25th may offer a chance of at least some frozen.. and it is inside 10 days lol.

Dont forget the driving rain.

A month off. Our Hail Mary (SSW) just occurred. Delayed but not denied. Mid to late March will really be rockin'.

Hard to say what impact that might be having when we can't even get cold to stick around for more than a day. The persistent western trough/eastern ridge is a winter killer.

That is a feature of a Nina, but the character/orientation can be different, and like last winter it can wax and wane and shift eastward/poleward at times. Probably Nina, PDO, and TNH pattern combining to screw us over this winter.

The pattern was decent for much of December, but we were unlucky(plus climo). Since then the Aleutian ridge has been strong and stable, and in a very unfavorable position. That's pretty much the ball game.

Not all Ninas are complete ratters like this one.

Blowing Rock

Radical look lol. (not base state)

It might. I think the current Nina/PDO/TNH combo is also just an unfavorable base state for our region- all probably exacerbated by that other thing.

Yeah we will have to see how the pattern progresses. Hopefully we get a relaxation of the Pacific Pig ridge in conjunction with a -NAO period, but the current pattern has been persistent since early Jan.

Very end of the month into the first few days of March still looks like our next best shot. Pretty weak signal for frozen on the GEFS and EPS though. Root for the CMC ens mean. Beyond that, who knows. Maybe the SSW will save us, but I doubt it. This Nina/TNH pattern seems locked in.