CAPE
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The shortwave that gets it done shoots SE out of an EPO ridge wave break, after a lead piece comes out and moves into the 50-50 position. The 0z run did this, but 12z did it better. (The 6z run brought too much energy out in the lead wave, with not much trailing energy). PNA ridge axis is perfect. Beautiful progression.
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Make this happen lol
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Looks much more like 0z, which is a good thing.
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Not until you are told how it is by some rando from another sub.
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Some advertised relaxation in the -EPO/WPO yes, but at the same time the PNA is going positive. Still an overall favorable look at day 15, and ofc that's way out there so we just can't know.
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That would be the 120 lol. The 90 is a great balanced DIPA, around 9%.
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It seems we may get a RELOAD after a slight relaxation. No signs of a 'close the blinds' period.
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A bit of ice coating on tree limbs. All other surfaces just wet.
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I like where things are now. Still far enough out that this could morph into something different.
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6z GEFS a bit further offshore (expected given the op run). Not bad. Many more iterations to go.
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Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day.
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We want to see sharpness in the trough, and for it dig to our SW. This run does neither. Too progressive and leads to a low forming wayyy offshore.
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There is no distinct shortwave on the 6z run, just a broad lobe of strung out vorticity. PNA ridge is a bit too amped with the axis further east. Not enough dig.
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Soaker
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33 and rain!
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A little offshore but nice to see a signal at this range for a coastal with plenty of cold in place.
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There we go.
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I'm thinking maybe that wave drops SE and becomes the trigger for the following coastal storm around the 27th.
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Kind of an ideal look leading up to an east coast snowstorm, other than a chunk of the PV is coming with it lol.
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Shit at least give me some rain followed by a flash freeze or something.
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Many more iterations to come. It can only get better from cold and dry.
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Supply is meager lol. Drank a 90 Min IPA. Now having a glass of red wine before dinner.
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The Mean looks almost exactly like the GEFS at 6z. 12z not so much.
