CAPE

Might be a good thing actually. Change is needed, bigly.

Dude. I posted it here accidentally, and immediately deleted it. You are trying wayyy too hard.

In other news, Lamar will not play Saturday. Not surprising. Not sure he plays again this season. Why would he?

that dude was a gem.

IDGAF if someone outside of our sub posts in the discussion threads, as long as it is respectful and value adding. Ralph comes to mind. When it comes to obs threads, if I want to know how much snow fell in Altoona PA, I know where to go to find that info.

Lets just go back to the clusterfuck we had years ago before there were subforums. Had the NE folks trolling and LOLing at our posts about cold and snow. Those were the days.. Regional delineations may seem arbitrary but they work.

44 and rain. 0.22" so far.

Had a beautiful sunrise here in Rehoboth just as the mid level clouds were moving in. Temp in the low 40s.

Definitely more Nino like to see an Aleutian low. A persistent ridge in that area is characteristic of a Nina.

The transition to a better longwave pattern does show up towards day 15 on the current ens runs as the AK vortex retrogrades. Latest GEFSx continues with the progression: by the second week in Jan we have a negative EPO/WPO, neutral PNA, and neutral/slightly neg AO/NAO.

On the third reason- good point, but consider those big storms happened during Ninas, with progressive flow, late developing offshore lows, in patterns that produced legit cold and shifted the baroclinic boundary further east. For folks inland it was like what storm? Cold and dry.

In my posts earlier yesterday I discussed the key features, mostly upstream, that would influence the shortwave and the opportunity for it to turn the corner enough. The Canadian ens was depicting the best outcome, but has since trended towards the GEFS. The latest Euro/EPS gets it done by bringing a vortex in over the top- perfectly timed so as not to dampen the wave- and provides confluence that places HP at the surface in a favorable spot so it's a bit colder as the wave comes up along the coast. Thread the needle type deal. The big picture synoptics at that time are the strengthening vortex near AK with the PNA ridge shifting east and evolving into a large area of +heights over the eastern half of the US with moderating temps. The pattern is transitioning from cold to mild over the east. At this range nothing is etched in stone, so there is still a chance this could work out.

23 and frosty. Been a solid wintry feeling period. Sure would be nice to get a bit of snow.

Egg nog is already spiked. I just pour some in the coffee instead of cream. Makes it covfefe'.

We just having a little fun. He did call me Ralph in the other thread.

No harm in that. Also no harm in discussing the model depictions and realistic expectations based on what typically occurs in these set-ups. Now go get your heavily spiked egg-nog. Never too early this time of year. Just had a bit in my coffee.

About one out of every 1000 times the GFS advertises it.

It's pretty much the GFS vs all other guidance wrt anafrontal snow. I mean, we do that so well the GFS is probably bang on.

Cold, dry air rushes in behind the front. Suggestive of a scattered flurry here and there.

The NAM looks much more realistic than the GFS, but even that is probably overdone with snow behind the front. Every other model depicts the typical outcome in these situations.

It's good to see the tendency for +Heights continuing over Greenland on the means. Mostly just need to get the Pacific resorted.

You can always just ignore it and hope the epic pattern will continue.

Pattern shift. Instead of reds in the HL and blues in the mid lats, it's inverted. If the extended guidance is to be believed, this is a brief reshuffle and then back to a more favorable look by mid Jan.

This is why I am not really enthused for a winter storm chance around the 28th. As the EPO ridge breaks down, the Aleutian trough morphs into a monstrous TPV and shifts over AK, and the cold pattern rapidly breaks down as Pacific puke takes hold and heights build over the central and eastern US. We will see how long it lasts but right now New Years into the beginning of Jan looks quite mild.

That's true, but they still need a functional passing game to compete with the top tier AFC teams. Right now, it isn't even close.