CAPE

Way overdue, but we pretty much knew it wasn't going to happen during the season.

Looks like we got an Alberta clipper incoming on the 28th. The Ji storm won't die, it just morphs each model simulation.

I get it but is has snowed in recent winters with marginal airmasses. We still need some semblance of a favorable look to our north in those cases to encourage a good track, along with a decently strong low. March 2018 is an example- good setup, decent cold in place. The winter of 20-21 (where the the temp never got below 20), the few light to moderate events here that were snow featured temps right around freezing or slightly above, but the synoptic setup was pretty good, and at least one of those was quite dynamic with banding and heavy snow that cooled the marginal surface. In this case the actual cold air/thermal boundary is still to our west/northwest and there isn't a reliable mechanism for confluence up top to get a meaningful high in a good spot for CAD. Transient lows moving through the 50-50 space in a progressive flow regime are just a crapshoot. So we mostly get ridging out in front with a weak high sliding off. That has rarely worked(here) without an antecedent Arctic airmass.

Tough set up for the lowlands with that high off the coast and marginal airmass. Try to locate a wind barb with a northerly component at any level.

Shit the blinds time? Probably not. After the storm next week is when we should finally see some decent cold arrive in our region. As advertised we will have a favorable h5 look into early Feb, esp on the GEFS and GEPS. Remains to be seen if this is mostly a cold/dry period followed by a warmup, or we get a chance or two with cold air actually in place.

Everyone can make their own judgements based on location and climo. The western mountain locations clearly have the best chance for both events. I may take a trip out there for the second one next week.

Both the Sunday-Mon and midweek storms are fundamentally problematic for the lower elevations because the antecedent airmass simply isn't very cold. Other than that one GFS run yesterday where the needle was threaded with phasing and the position/timing of the NS vortices in eastern Canada that allowed for a decent HP up north, the advertised surface look has relatively weak HP out in front sliding off the coast. Hard to win in the lowlands with that and a mediocre airmass in place, short of a strong low tracking off the VA Capes or something.

Surface temps above freezing and weak lift. It has blue over Ji though and it's on the exact date he claimed lol.

0z Euro has the Ji storm.

Yeah, that's how it works with progressive flow. Yet you constantly pop in here and post about 'good looks' with transient lows hauling ass through the 50-50 region lol.

And the 18z GEFS will probably look nothing like 12z lol. Follow the leader.

At least we get heavy rain with temps in the mid 40s instead of 33 degree drizzle.

A Highly Anticipated Presser https://russellstreetreport.com/2023/01/18/lombardis-way/presser/

If it doesn't snow here I'm coming to visit you. Light workload the next 2 weeks. eta- we don't need a SSW event, and that's not what is being forecasted, beyond the typical hype. There isn't any hard and fast rules about there being some specified amount of delay. Even Cohen doesn't really know.`

The CMC ens has a legit west-based -NAO the end of the month into early Feb. It is a classic dipole look with a TPV stuck underneath and low h5 heights stretched towards 50-50. This significantly mitigates the unfavorable ridge-trough position upstream in the EPac, squashing the SE ridge. Is it correct? Hard to say, but given some of the forecasted strat warming (and weakening SPV), it could be. I am sure as hell rooting for the Canadians here lol.

The biggest difference I see on the 12z run is up top, with the strength/timing of the TPV vorticity lobe rotating south and the vortex in the 50-50 position. The op run made a favorable move and the mean really picked up on it. Could easily change the next model cycle.

Hoping for a solid event somewhere within a few hours drive over the next 2 weeks. I can take a mini vacay anytime during that period.

Check the low level temps. If it's a weak pos it is probably rain/non accumulating snow.

WB has been shitting the blinds lately with the EPS.

All the years of doing this, and you guys still expect some sort of consistency from op runs 7+ days out lol. The 'trends' are found on the ens means.

The general pattern progression and timing on the ens runs hasn't changed. In my mind beyond the 25th is where the chances for frozen for most of our region would begin to increase. The 23rd has looked like a Central/N PA and north event on the means for awhile, with possibly the NW fringes of our area having some minor impacts. The Ji storm around the 27th has looked marginal for cold but certainly isn't dead. Beyond that is where the best potential lies but ofc we are 10 days away. Folks get tired of the waiting. With the depicted h5 setup, the cold will build and be close by, but the bleed southeastward probably comes incrementally with multiple events putting down some snow to our north first.

That storm was wicked here. All out blizzard. Was difficult to measure, plus falling on top of what was still otg. Once in a lifetime winter.

2013-14 and 14-15, and tracking the one big storm in 2016- that period was overall the best on here imo. Plenty of tracking that actually yielded results, the poetry thread, and Jebman's epic rants. Good times.