CAPE

As a Ravens fan I probably should be cheering for the Steelers here. I JUST CANT DO IT. Come on Bengals.

Torch!!

Paying less attention to the colors and more to the height contours is a good rule of thumb to glean the general idea from an overly smoothed seasonal model. I know you know this. Shame on you for trolling the panic stricken. Shame on me for coming in here and being rational and unemotional.

My Christmas wish is to never see a day 10+ snow map in a Med/LR thread ever again. Will it come true?

There are currently discrete(proper spelling) threats on the ens means though. Not all about the damn snow maps.

Early Jan is get on the board time with a moderate event or 2. Late Jan into mid Feb might be KU time, given strong Nino, QBO phase, weak SPV, and pretty much all extended guidance consistently depicting a period of sustained NA blocking.

Pretty classic looks on the means for the 6-7th. Although there won't be a sustained block in place, the timing looks good with predecessor waves lowering heights in the 50-50 region and building h5 heights near GL overtop. That should place surface HP in a favorable position that allows a northerly flow into a developing storm tracking northward along the east coast. The -EPO/TPV combo will have cooled central/eastern Canada to close to normal temps, so cold enough air for snow(given the track) should be available. Game on baby.

Nice signal on the EPS for the 7th. HP ridging south from eastern Canada with LP off the Maritimes, LP along the Gulf states with moisture streaming northeastward.

Sorry for all the good vibe spammage. I'm on my third cup. Very good set of ens runs at 0z and 6z imo, and I kind of liked the 6z GFS op too. Heading outside to spilt firewood and do some pre-Spring yard work. Love mulching in the cold with no bugs.

Much improved from some of the ensemble runs yesterday, where there was too much interaction too soon between the southern wave and NS vorticity. Such a nice h5 look right there.

Much stronger signal for a gulf low tracking towards the east coast. Nice surface setup.

Here comes the next wave. Gotta love a Nino.

6z GEFS has a stronger signal for the 4-5th window.

6z GFS is very close to something for the 4th-5th, then drops the hammer sending a TPV lobe south, pushing the thermal boundary to south Georgia lol.

0z Euro op at the end of the run was snowing on NC into central VA.

0z EPS indications for the 4th and the 7th.

0z GEFS has our storm for the 7th, and before that snows on NC on the 4th.

Possibly, yes. Hard to say at this range, but verbatim, the higher probability for frozen with the initial wave would be NW of your area too. Ofc at 0z this will likely be at least somewhat different.

Not quite correct. The initial wave has more interaction with NS energy and a significant number of members track the primary low to our NW, and that's where the strongest signal for frozen is. So, you missed the point.

The thing about a Nino is there is seemingly always another wave, and on an ensemble mean at range with disparity among the members, it is sometimes difficult to make a distinction between one wave and the next. maybe this isnt the one- and this one is. looks colder/snowier on the mean, with surface low placement further SE.

Still plenty of spread among the members on the timing/track and even the specific waves that are the ultimate players for this event.

More consolidated than the 12z run for sure, and stronger ridging into GL. Looking more blocky.

That's what I'm thinking.

Doesn't have the insane NA block, but other than that not too bad, and pretty typical Nino look.

I like the indication on the HH GEFS of TPV energy phasing into the existing lower heights in the 50-50 region ahead of our potential storm.