CAPE
-
Posts
36,289 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by CAPE
-
Is this a bad look on the 18z GEFS? This is the look on the 18z GFS operational at h5, same time. Apparently bad though. Some of you need to do better, or stay in the damn panic thread and moan.
-
Some of y'all would be better off never looking at an op run at range. Seriously.
-
For those who look at the 18z GFS and think it is a crap run verbatim (Hi Ji), remember it is a single op run and we are still 8 + days out from the initial window of interest. Look at the big picture at h5- the shortwaves are on the playing field, rolling across the southern US, while the HL look is favorable(note the oranges/ reds in the right places). We just can't know the details yet.
-
When the goal is snow and most of us live well east of the Allegheny front, like I said, it's super easy to be a pessimist. Boring. More rewarding to do the analysis, have fun with the tracking process, and when it pays off, fucking enjoy the hell out of it. Frankly, some here should find another hobby.
-
Its easy af to be pessimistic, given our location. What's the point in doing that though? We know the potential upside when it all comes together. Lets look for the key pieces that can make that happen. They are there on guidance.
-
Not by me.
-
Don't spoil it, I have slow ass WB. That has been a window of interest.
-
It's HH. Feeling optimistic about HH GFS. (Probably partly because this Old Fashioned is over the top good). This place needs a lift. Lets see what it do.
-
You aren't kidding. Just catching up. The last part of the old thread was a mini dumpster fire. Quite a few posts belonged in the panic room thread.
-
Fair amount of spread for each of those windows, including suppressed to not much of anything. Signal should get stronger in the next couple days if one of these is gonna materialize.
-
I see what you did there. I like it.
-
GEPS hinting at a legit NA block building westward to Baffin Island. Cold airmass underneath verbatim. 6z GEFS has the same idea.
-
A bit of a longshot and probably not a big deal either way, but the last few runs of the GEFS suggest the wave that develops and slides off the coast to our south around the 2nd might be close enough for a bit of frozen, with the advertised airmass a bit colder than depicted on earlier runs. A half dozen or so members have had something. I counted 8 on the 6z GEFS. Just something to keep an eye on while we await the better chances.
-
The one key ingredient for this upcoming period that has been lacking should be more readily available, thanks in part to the developing EPO ridge allowing flow southward from the Polar regions and mixing out the Pacific airmass.
-
Should see those fireworks tents pop up in another month.
-
This process is how it works in many cases, and in particular when there isn't an existing block in place.
-
Next up- There is an indication of a wave tracking across the Gulf states for the 7-8th. Pretty far out, but there is an indication of another storm around the 11th as energy drops southeastward ahead of a developing ridge off the west coast. It shouldn't be boring over the next couple weeks. Impressive -NAO signal on the means.
-
The shortwave energy in the southern stream flow looks healthy for the 4-5th window. Need to watch the timing of NS energy dropping southward to see what influence it may have. This period still seems like the first legitimate chance for something with some decent cold available.
-
I like the wave timing for that window with the predecessor low in a good spot and HP just west/sw of there where we want it. It's one of those simple paths to victory with a well timed discrete shortwave tracking underneath and a favorable look in the NA. Cold enough verbatim. Just need it a little further north.
-
The 4-5th window is realistically the first chance for something other than rain for the MA lowlands.
-
And as is that's a cold look across most of the US.
-
Yeah you're missing something. Not a surprise.
-
Check out the GEPS
-
Everyone else as in our regulars here? WW was in a bit of a panic about -PNA until I reassured him, and then there is always EJ..
-
Was just going to mention this. For all the hand wringing about a crappy Pacific/-PNA/ 'disappearing' Aleutian low, it looks to be more brief than expected. Nino forcing ultimately overwhelms any temporary MJO modulation/NPAC jet retraction.
