CAPE

It's actually pretty simple. With the pattern in place, the flow off the Pacific continues to be strong, and is essentially overwhelming other factors. Canada is flooded with relatively mild air. The pattern is a progressive one(no atmospheric blocking in the NA), so the only way to get enough of the already modified cold from up there to down here relies on a well timed, perfectly positioned, but transient NS vortex passing through or near the 50-50 region.

I guess given the circumstances, and the NFL being unwilling to give up the bye week to replay the game, sure a coin flip will do lol. Not that I think the Ravens have much of a chance to beat the Bengals to even force the issue. https://www.si.com/nfl/ravens/news/coin-flip-home-playoff-game-ravens-bengals

The AO is negative now, and forecast to trend towards neutral by mid month. That isn't the issue.

0z EPS- not a bad look beyond mid month, and has our next trackable threat.

I made a post about this yesterday. The answer is yes there is some hope for that, but it is based on the depicted pattern progression on the latest ensemble runs in the LR plus the extended products, all highly subject to change ofc.

Oh you mean this isn't good?

I said it several times- limited cold available. I think most folks probably get that our source region isn't very cold right now.

Surface depiction from the 0z EPS run vs the 12z run. Note the differences to our north. Timing is different between the 2 runs so I used the panels where the surface low is just off the NC coast for comparison.

EPS is also warmer and suggests mostly rain outside of the higher terrain. Big picture is we are in a progressive flow regime with limited cold available, and in order to get cold enough air in place/remain in place even with a favorable low track off the coast, we need a mechanism for confluence to our NE to keep HP in a favorable position so that some of the cold in eastern Canada can drain southward. This requires a that a vortex moving through the 50-50 region be both strong enough and in a favorable position as low approaches, but it's going to be on the move too. If it is weaker or the spacing is not good(moves away too soon) we lose the required confluence in order to keep the HP in place and we lose the cold feeding in from the north. On the latest runs that vortex is weaker/not timed as well, and HP shifts east/NE allowing milder marine air to overwhelm. This is a classic thread the needle deal for MA snow in a progressive pattern that offers limited cold air.

I counted around 7 that have a low tracking pretty far NW at least initially. Some others are pretty far SE, so quite a bit of spread. The snowfall mean reflects this as it has 2 'enhanced' areas- one over northern half of PA into SNE and another across much of VA, with most of our area in between.

Fwiw but the Euro weeklies have negative 2m temp anomalies spreading across much of the lower 48 towards mid Feb as the mean trough shifts into the central US, with a -EPO and neutral/slightly +PNA.

Latest GEFSX and Euro weeklies have a similar pattern progression beyond mid month, with the deep trough along the west coast splitting off from the negative anomalies over AK as a ridge develops. This causes the trough to progress eastward into the western/central US as the lower heights near AK retrograde into a more favorable position near the Aleutians. Pretty good agreement and a decent h5 look for the east coast.

We know where Bob Chill will be if this is close to reality.

1-2 ft for central NC to Central VA lol.

The 4 day is almost identical east of the highlands.

I just went back and looked at previous runs and it never looked even close to this.

Also potential huge impacts on the Bills-Chiefs seeding. Bills beat the Chiefs head to head, but by playing one less game(if they both win their final game), Chiefs have the better win % and Bills would have to travel to KC for a playoff game. That just isn't right.

Better surface depiction than the last several runs.

It didn't cut though. It wobbled around like a drunken sailor and ended up off the SE coast. You are partly correct- we need to have a mechanism for confluence to our north or HP is going to exit stage right. The big picture issues are the progressive flow regime and lack of true cold air.

I am more of a glass half full guy as I get older. I enjoy tracking interesting weather, and I find the physics to be very cool, but it's just not a game changer for me if I don't get snow. It is not some life changing deal lol. Weather does what it does. If I really need a fix, I have been known to chase.

MC forcing is pretty much the norm for a Nina. Not sure it is that much of a game changer if we have other indices in our favor. Latest ens guidance indicates the AO and NAO will be neutral/trending slightly negative beyond mid month. Imo it's up in the air what transpires on the Pac side going forward. Yeah we will warm again for a time after whatever happens mid month, but the GEFS in the LR significantly weakens the trough along the west coast and is suggesting a ridge may develop.

At least Ji is getting his digital blue fix.

You forgot the ugly.

The early January snowstorm. I know it didn't work out for everyone in the subforum, but I first saw the potential when we were in the so called "blinds closed" Dec torch pattern, and even though it waxed and waned over about a 10 day period, the general idea remained on guidance. The "Cape storm" actually did produce in my yard (9.5"), so that was satisfying. It melted some but then we had another event a few days later- snow on snow. January as a whole was memorable and eastern areas had one more major event at the end of the month. The beaches really cleaned up on that one with a foot+ blizzard, and I ended up with 6+ inches here.