CAPE

It is and I am currently drinking an incredibly delicious 120 min IPA, had half a gummy, and about to eat sushi.

One thing that can overcome all that is a mechanism for injecting cross polar flow into the pattern, with a trough carved into the central US that progresses eastward bringing legit cold. That's basically what happened early last Jan, but ofc that set up requires a lot to go right to get a storm to develop in time. Wet got the cold though. Cold is building in our source region now but going forward there is no mechanism for it push southward in the presence of a SE ridge. The hope on the guidance to suppress the ridge and shift the boundary just a bit further south was a -NAO period in conjunction with a -EPO. The former has (pretty suddenly) completely disappeared, and the EPO looks to trend positive towards early Feb, with an already -PNA. Ouch.

Without overthinking it as I don't have the energy, TNH + Nina is problematic, and add warming on top of that. Still hoping for a CP moderate Nino next winter. See how we roll with that.

Bengals-Bills, although I am intrigued with the Giants-Eagles game. Giants have a little something going and playing with house money, and the Eagles have been banged up a bit and not invincible over the past 3 games.

Crappy airmass in front and a HP off the coast is a little tough. Would need more resistance up top.

The biggest 'risk' for the end of the month period might be chilly and dry. Some subtle hints on the means of waves tracking to our south, and the GFS op has teased a bit.

We probably have a week or so the end of the month into early Feb to luck into something with colder air in place, but trends on guidance don't look great beyond that. A lot more blue up top. Better h5 looks will probably show up on guidance for mid to late Feb, then we can do this all over again. Third time the charm lol? Dying Nina plus strat stuff may give a us a chance.

Thanks but I am on Pivotal now. Not sure why I haven't used this lol.

I am mostly interested in the GEFS for late month.

GFS technical difficulties. Or in hibernation. Latest run is 18z on WB.

A legend. RIP.

You can retire for this winter now. All your op run digital goals have been obtained.

This is the period that makes the most sense for a favorable outcome in our region imo. I haven't really been enthused about anything until after the 25th.

Pretty good look on the HH GFS And then this..

Too bad the CFS sucks.

I hope not. Need a fresh perspective. How about someone like Frank Reich? He is probably aiming for another HC job though.

And it continues the good look. Nina dead. Back loaded. Makes sense. Only a month away!

Way overdue, but we pretty much knew it wasn't going to happen during the season.

Looks like we got an Alberta clipper incoming on the 28th. The Ji storm won't die, it just morphs each model simulation.

I get it but is has snowed in recent winters with marginal airmasses. We still need some semblance of a favorable look to our north in those cases to encourage a good track, along with a decently strong low. March 2018 is an example- good setup, decent cold in place. The winter of 20-21 (where the the temp never got below 20), the few light to moderate events here that were snow featured temps right around freezing or slightly above, but the synoptic setup was pretty good, and at least one of those was quite dynamic with banding and heavy snow that cooled the marginal surface. In this case the actual cold air/thermal boundary is still to our west/northwest and there isn't a reliable mechanism for confluence up top to get a meaningful high in a good spot for CAD. Transient lows moving through the 50-50 space in a progressive flow regime are just a crapshoot. So we mostly get ridging out in front with a weak high sliding off. That has rarely worked(here) without an antecedent Arctic airmass.

Tough set up for the lowlands with that high off the coast and marginal airmass. Try to locate a wind barb with a northerly component at any level.

Shit the blinds time? Probably not. After the storm next week is when we should finally see some decent cold arrive in our region. As advertised we will have a favorable h5 look into early Feb, esp on the GEFS and GEPS. Remains to be seen if this is mostly a cold/dry period followed by a warmup, or we get a chance or two with cold air actually in place.

Everyone can make their own judgements based on location and climo. The western mountain locations clearly have the best chance for both events. I may take a trip out there for the second one next week.

Both the Sunday-Mon and midweek storms are fundamentally problematic for the lower elevations because the antecedent airmass simply isn't very cold. Other than that one GFS run yesterday where the needle was threaded with phasing and the position/timing of the NS vortices in eastern Canada that allowed for a decent HP up north, the advertised surface look has relatively weak HP out in front sliding off the coast. Hard to win in the lowlands with that and a mediocre airmass in place, short of a strong low tracking off the VA Capes or something.