CAPE

or 05..or 13. We have options!

Might be how it works out. The very end of Jan to Feb 2nd is probably the earliest for something. In general the 2nd through the 8th or so is probably the best window. GEFS is more bullish early, but the CMC ens is pretty close. EPS(0z) not as much. The overall period might be longer if the NAO cooperates a little more than guidance is currently depicting.

GEFS suggests another wave with a shot at frozen for the 6-7th. Not a big fan of the snow maps at range, but this is something of an indicator given the period looks pretty favorable.

We have seen plenty of head fakes no doubt. Worst that can happen is more of the same. Let's be positive. Glass half full here. Your 'goal' at this point should be getting 20"+ or something like that. We have all of Feb and March, and the prospects for late Feb into March look pretty decent. I will be happy with whatever I get here. A foot would be amazing.

Ten+ days out and this is only a 6 hour panel. You get the general idea.

Our first legit chance.

This marks the beginning of our period of hope, our change of fortune. Direct delivery of Polar air into the pattern, and the TPV is the mechanism to hand it off to the mid latitudes.

lol

There is a decent signal for something other than rain across the MA between Feb 2-6th on the 0z GEFS. Multiple members depict snow/ice during that period, with several keying on the lower Mid Atlantic- a good sign imo to see suggestions of frozen to our south at this range. That possibility has been zero for the winter to this point. As depicted the pattern is driven by -EPO and displaced TPV. That gets the cold close and it may finally push southeastward through our area by the beginning of Feb. No real help in the NAO domain. The tendency for a ridge in the SE/ W Atlantic is going to be persistent.

Yeah I was actually referring more specifically to around Feb 2nd per my previous post. There are likely multiple factors to explain what's behind a progression like that op run and other examples of similar outcomes. Some of it is just cyclical like TNH etc, combined with Nina tendencies; the rest is that 'other stuff', which also helps explain the Pac jet on steroids/persistent -PNA etc.

Too much analysis for an op run at range lol. I just got a kick out of it because it somehow ended up the exact inversion of what we would want. EPS isn't bad end of the month considering we have a far less than ideal look up top- but there is a TPV lobe with anomalously low heights in a pretty good position to our NE. Looks dry as a bone though.

This is actually a pretty cold look for the MA. Problem is it's also dry.

lol Hell of a dipole(rex) block. The mirror image of what we want.

Why? The storm is coming. It's been well modeled for days lol The dumb jinx thing I am guessing. Why not have a thread for a discrete threat, so we can focus on more pattern chasing here for the big snow that will save this winter?

This is the period the ensembles have been hinting at for awhile now with the boundary finally to our south. Cold HP to the north and multiple waves on the GFS.

There is still a transient -NAO for the very end of the month into the first couple days of Feb on the GEFS and GEPS. The EPS was never as enthused about the idea, but overall guidance has backed off and transitions to a +NAO heading into February, for now. We shall see.

Outside of the far northern and western areas that might see some frozen this week, as depicted this period remains our best shot at something. Plenty of cold across Canada, and perhaps the boundary will be further south during this time.

They have a decent chance imo. Remember the 2019 Ravens, winners of 12 straight, well rested, but with key players still banged up- and a team coming in on a bit of a roll, feeling good with low expectations.. It happens.

a 120 can help facilitate that.

Probably not. Neutral trending positive.

Bengals (and Bills) can beat KC, at their place. No doubt. Those 3 teams are so close talent and coaching wise. The best of the AFC by far, and there are only 2 teams in the NFC on that level.

By default SF does what it takes to win, while Dallas does the antithesis in big games. Coaching and Kicking will make the difference if it's close. Again, edge 49ers.

384 hours out on an op run. It's close enough! Yes, apparently it is meteorologically possible to snow south of 40n with a look like this... -EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO, in a Nina.

Moved on to this. Black Flag never fails me. Very good. With sooo many hazy NE/WC style IPAs out there, more bad than good, THIS is very nice.

lol too funny. One will put you in a nice place. 2? I actually did that once, on tap at Rehoboth, and I was down for the count, sleeping like a baby not long after.