CAPE
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The perfect moderator.
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67 here. Very nice.
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CMC was sort of in-between the GFS and Euro.
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Yep a true block requires both. Can see it on the op runs too. The vortices get 'stuck' and turn back westward underneath. Lows screaming through the 50-50 region mostly don't work.
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We got the general look. There is the trailing wave.
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Started seeing it at 18z yesterday when it became very favorable for SNE. With the primary getting that far north, would need it to be weaker to have a realistic shot down here- need the coastal to get going sooner and strengthen closer to the coast.
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Still lots of spread for the March 4 deal. Looks like a trailing wave similar to the op. Lead wave goes NW and is too warm. Best signal for frozen on the mean is from sw to central VA into northern NC.
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The strongest signal for frozen on the GEFS is here. Probably should start to pay a bit more attention to this, especially for those that are further NE in our region.
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60 here. 3km NAM and HRRR have a high of 64 and 68 respectively. Forecast high of 75...maybe not.
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Nice shellacking along I-95 corridor.
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Damn, cant beat WW with those maps lol.
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I suppose we should discuss this here. Probably not thread worthy. A lot to overcome to see anything appreciable- fast flow, relatively weak forcing, very dry air in place, and marginal temps. Would need enough lift to overcome the dry air and then get a period of moderate precip to fall to cool the surface.
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Setting up for our mid month Hail Mary event.
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Looking ahead on the GEFS the -NAO weakens some but there is an improvement on the Pacific side with the EPO/WPO trending negative. Mean trough position shifting eastward. Colder look. Good trade-off if real imo.
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This gives an idea of the spread among the members wrt timing and location of low pressure. The mean looks like a lead wave and the a follow up wave, but that is probably not the way it will go. Overall the period still has potential but a ways to go before we can know.
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0z EPS has a pretty clear signal for primary low pressure tracking to our NW, with hints of secondary coastal development for the early March deal. Still plenty of spread. 0z GEFS also indicative of spread among the members for the early March window. Appears to be at least 2 camps with some timing and track differences and/or a lead low tracking NW and then a trailing low. I don't have time to look at the individual members and probably not worth the effort anyway. Still pretty far out.
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Oh I am sure there was a random op run or 2 where that was the case. In addition to tracking to Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Savannah Georgia.
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18z GEFS is meh. Signal for a NW track on the mean is pretty strong. A step back from 12z, but still way out there. Look at the changes we are seeing for the 28th the last couple runs. Long way to go. The BASE STATE is Pacific suckage. That isn't going to change anytime soon.
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The Nina needs to continue to decay. That will shift the location of the persistent +height anomalies in the Pacific, and thus the location of the downstream trough and eastern ridge. We need a longwave pattern phase shift, and it probably wont happen in a major way until our climo goes to crap in the Spring. Good news is these features never stay fixed in one location. A few tweaks on the Pacific side with a favorable NA, in conjunction with shorter wavelengths as we approach Spring can get it done.
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The MJO is probably never gonna get "there" as long as we are in a Nina. Even in a decaying Nina, by the time the atmosphere responds it will be March 27th or something. Best to stop looking at it.
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Coastal redevelopment quite a bit souther on the 18z GEFS for the 28th event. Big improvement and great track for SNE. Maybe the trend continues? Sometimes models don't quite 'see' the block at range. P sure that one is in the weenie handbook.
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Yeah lets wait and see what the GEFS has. Last 2 ens runs were pretty similar.
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Cocktail cherry dummy.
