Latest Mount Holly AFD-
A potentially significant coastal storm looks to be on the horizon Sunday through Monday. However, the forecast remains uncertain and significant changes could come as we get closer. Main impacts will be tidal flooding, strong marine winds (and potentially on land if the system tracks closer), and heavy rain. Things start to go downhill on Saturday Night as a coastal low approaches from the south. Rain is expected to overspread the region, with the heaviest near the coastline, while areas in the Lehigh Valley/Poconos/northern NJ likely stay dry through the night. Winds begin to increase, especially over the water and along the immediate coastline with gusts getting near 40 MPH by daybreak. Sunday through Monday will be when our area likely experiences the brunt of the impacts from the coastal storm. If the current track holds and the coastal storm does end up just offshore, strong winds are expected, upwards of 45-55 MPH+ on the coast Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night, with the potential for these strong winds to continue well into Monday. Gusts upward of 30-40 MPH will extend several miles inland to about the I-95 corridor. In addition to the wind, heavy rain is expected, and a SLIGHT (2/4) Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in place for the I-95 corridor and points south and east. We are not fully in the QPF period yet, but some of the WPC longer-range rainfall products suggest 2-4+ inches of rain within the SLGT risk, with locally higher amounts certainly possible. NBM Probability of 2+ inches of rain for New Jersey and Delmarva was about 30-40%, which is actually quite high being 5-6 days out.