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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    yeah one disaster at a time!
  2. CAPE
    I will offer this as an example. Annoying in many ways, beginning with who you replied to. You are generally too sensitive and defensive. And when you make a post, have a point that is pertinent, accurate, and adds something to the discussion. You can always just leave it and move on otherwise. Can't go wrong with 'read more/post less'. There are many times I start to make a post, then rethink /evaluate it, and simply delete it.
  3. CAPE
    What's probably coming next winter is a Nina. There are variations, just like there are with Ninos. They don't all suck for snow, but a lot of folks in the MA seem to believe that is the case.
  4. CAPE
    My advice to you is don't set yourself up for disappointment. 'Epic' patterns in a Nino don't always result in prolific snow amounts.
  5. CAPE
    What is so magic about breaking 30? Who cares about predictions- just someone's opinion. Lets say the lowlands get an 8" event, a 10" event, and maybe another 3 with a minor or mixed event over the next 4-5 weeks. Would that meet your "bar" for a good winter?
  6. CAPE
    We 'get there' with one or 2 big storms. Certainly possible over the next month. Most places in the lowlands already have 8-12" on the board.
  7. CAPE
    With the advertised upper air pattern, this period could feature a shot of legit Arctic air, possibly coming in behind a winter storm. Maybe some (late) deep winter with snow otg.
  8. CAPE
    6z GEFS For 2 weeks out this is an impressive surface plot, and pretty indicative of what we want to see for an impending east coast winter storm.
  9. CAPE
    The 18-20th window definitely runs the risk of a suppressed track. Plenty of time for corrections with the key features, but it very well may be the storm after that becomes the focus. Crazy how the extended guidance has been locked in on the period centered on the 23rd.
  10. CAPE
    He is being objective, laying out the statistical probabilities based on similar patterns. There are never any guarantees, regardless of how historically favorable the pattern might look.
  11. CAPE
    It isn't suppressed(assuming you are referring to VD as in your previous post). There are multiple pieces of energy in the NS and SS for the window centered on the 14th and guidance is a bit all over the place resolving the timing and interactions.
  12. CAPE
    All 3 ensembles look pretty solid for that window. Still 2 weeks out.
  13. CAPE
    Looks like maybe something bigger cooking for just beyond-
  14. CAPE
    0z GEFS for PD
  15. CAPE
    EPS has a track just to the south. Verbatim a little frozen through the region esp NW. GEPS is similar with low track.
  16. CAPE
    If it wasn't for all the road salt I would give that a go lol. I wouldn't want it every winter though. Luckily, there is zero chance it ever happens in the MA lowlands. 2-4 weeks of legit winter is about it.
  17. CAPE
    There has been an indication on the ensembles of a discrete wave in the southern stream for several runs now for around the 20th. Remains to be seen how far north the moisture can make it, but it is probably the most trackable signal as of now, and it is 2 weeks out. There are still hints on some runs of something centered on the 15th. Another window to keep an eye on. We are in monitor mode. Some are getting skittish and impatient, and probably should take a break/find other activities to engage in.
  18. CAPE
    For the PD potential: Developing rex block. NS energy now directed into the low pressure region of the block- the 50-50 low. Indication of a significant shortwave in the southern stream. Primary question is how much gain in latitude the deep moisture can make underneath the block. Need the STJ to be juiced/north biased, not weaker/suppressed south.
  19. CAPE
    There is a prominent southward displaced jet in a Nino that is absent in a Nina, but with an amped PNA/EPO ridge and split flow there certainly can be a 'busy' NS at times. Once the pattern matures as the HL block develops, the NS energy will be focused more in the 50-50 region.
  20. CAPE
    I was referring to the EPS(not the weeklies) wrt the period after mid month through the end of the run. Doesn't have much of anything beyond the 12th.
  21. CAPE
    Yeah I posted the panel for that on the previous page. The signal has been there on the GEFS for several runs, not so much on the EPS. Euro/EPS goes dry after the mid month window.
  22. CAPE
    Latest edition of the Weeklies-
  23. CAPE
    Yeah that's the window the extended products have been hinting at. That timing makes sense given how the HL pattern is forecast to evolve. Hopefully we have a couple to track before that.
  24. CAPE
    We going get PD III
  25. CAPE
    The 14-15th has trended a bit colder on the GEFS so that is one window to monitor. The period beyond that around PD is starting to look more interesting- colder air in place and more like a typical Nino event with a discrete wave tracking across the south, and less NS interaction.
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