CAPE

Now. Looks a bit further SE than 0z.

First bit of discussion I have seen for next Tuesday from Mount Holly in the AFD. Some dirty talk in there. Looking towards the beginning of the week guidance is showing a deep 250mb trough swinging through the central US. This sends a strong 250mb jet over the region and guidance has shown the potential for some weak cyclogensis to our south. The consensus amongst guidance is that a low pressure system will form to our south and stays to the south as it moves towards the northeast. This keeps the forecast area entirely in the cold sector of the system and in the right rear quad of the 250mb jet. That should lead to broad synoptic lift and with moisture in place we may see accumulating snow across the region. Based on the 18z ensembles that went into the 01z NBM, the nearly the entire forecast area has 50% chance of exceeding 1" of snow and given the area would be in the cold sector there would be no immediate rainfall to melt the snow. At this point limiting factors would be the speed of the system rather than thermal profiles.

For the 19-20th potential, for now the tendency is for surface low development a little too far north and offshore. Might be a case of a little too much +PNA. Not seeing much of an indication of a shortwave taking the southern route- the primary energy would be embedded in the flow overtop the ridge. With that vortex shifting from south central Canada eastward to Atlantic Canada, NS energy associated with that may get involved a bit too late. Still almost 10 days out so plenty of time for changes in the key players.

Latest NBM

The 'trend' on the GEFS is good though. 2 runs ago there was barely an indication of a surface low. Last run it was well off the coast. Did you see the MSLP anomaly panel I just posted for 6z?

What trend are you speaking of?

Better depiction of a low just off the NC coast than previous runs.

Needless to say I'm not a fan of that run verbatim but that is still a possibility if a sharp NS shortwave digs and phases too early. The 50-50 region is precarious, so too amped is going to be problematic.

WW might stop worrying about those bad SE trends after this run.

Well this is just a little different

NE MD PUMMELED seems a good bet. A puking fatties watch may be required.

Pretty much a duplicate of 12z EPS.

Looks like the 12z op run, so probably a similar outcome.

The biggest difference to me for next week is the sharpness and dig of the NS vorticity on the Euro compared to the GFS. The degree of interaction with energy in the flow underneath it induces a stronger surface low sooner/further south. 18z GFS took a step in the right direction compared to the 12z run, with a more notable vort max that is less broad and strung out.

A Pacific jet extension sets up a favorable Pacific for the potential storm around the 20th. An extended NPAC Jet is generally favored in a Nino, and the MJO forcing moving away from the MC will help to facilitate it, resulting in a +PNA with the NE Pac low moving into a better location near the Aleutians.

Mean reflects the same general idea as the op. Doesn't quite gets its act together in time. Long way to go on this one.

Where is WW? Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile.

Different setup. Legit cold air pressing SE, and in place. An overamped wave could still mess it up some for the lowlands.

Someone else can do the snow maps

Miller A incoming on the EPS for the 16th

That's busy. A lot of vorticity interplay going on.

It was close. A bit discombobulated and came together a tad late.

Given the issues up top, this is damn near a perfect run imo. Amplification happens at the right time and not too amped. Like the GFS, improvement in the 50-50 region leading in.