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CAPE

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  1. CAPE
    For the PD potential: Developing rex block. NS energy now directed into the low pressure region of the block- the 50-50 low. Indication of a significant shortwave in the southern stream. Primary question is how much gain in latitude the deep moisture can make underneath the block. Need the STJ to be juiced/north biased, not weaker/suppressed south.
  2. CAPE
    There is a prominent southward displaced jet in a Nino that is absent in a Nina, but with an amped PNA/EPO ridge and split flow there certainly can be a 'busy' NS at times. Once the pattern matures as the HL block develops, the NS energy will be focused more in the 50-50 region.
  3. CAPE
    I was referring to the EPS(not the weeklies) wrt the period after mid month through the end of the run. Doesn't have much of anything beyond the 12th.
  4. CAPE
    Yeah I posted the panel for that on the previous page. The signal has been there on the GEFS for several runs, not so much on the EPS. Euro/EPS goes dry after the mid month window.
  5. CAPE
    Latest edition of the Weeklies-
  6. CAPE
    Yeah that's the window the extended products have been hinting at. That timing makes sense given how the HL pattern is forecast to evolve. Hopefully we have a couple to track before that.
  7. CAPE
    We going get PD III
  8. CAPE
    The 14-15th has trended a bit colder on the GEFS so that is one window to monitor. The period beyond that around PD is starting to look more interesting- colder air in place and more like a typical Nino event with a discrete wave tracking across the south, and less NS interaction.
  9. CAPE
    To me that's what makes it a legitimate atmospheric block with some staying power. Looks like it is evolving into a Rex(dipole) configuration.
  10. CAPE
    A legit NA blocking pattern is being depicted on all 3 ens means. Canadian has led the way on a stout, west-based -NAO and the latest GEFS and EPS runs are now more bullish on the idea.
  11. CAPE
    In addition to the 2 threats mentioned in my previous 2 posts, the GEFS is still hinting at surface low development along the SE coast leading up to PD. We do have trackable possibilities in front of us.
  12. CAPE
    In the near term, around mid month is still on the table for at least part of the region. Latest GEFS and GEPS runs suggest a low track further south than the EPS, which has a more NS dominant look. Temps look marginal on the mean.
  13. CAPE
    0z EPS and GEFS are more impressive with the -NAO. The energy for the potential storm that the extended products have been hinting at for around the 23rd can be seen in the southwest.
  14. CAPE
    Oh this? Miller A baby.
  15. CAPE
    Many won't make it. The few will see it through.
  16. CAPE
    BristowWx isn't going to make it.
  17. CAPE
    More of a -NAO building west towards Baffin at the end of the GEFS run too. Seeing the beginning of a legit block developing with the anomalously low heights in the 50-50 region.
  18. CAPE
    Finally seeing hints of a shortwave embedded in the STJ flow moving eastward with surface low pressure developing in the deep south at the end of HH GEFS. Potentially setting us up for PD or a bit beyond.
  19. CAPE
    For those prone to panic, I'll feed ya. This is the point when h5 begins to have that epic look. Check out the NS and STJ wave action aloft, and the surface pressure. Just a few more days..
  20. CAPE
    Yup. Sign of a coach that really isn't in control in the big moments. Ravens at Chargers on the schedule next season. Harbaugh vs Harbaugh. Who ya got?
  21. CAPE
    I get it. But why does this happen so often in these big games? He is the head coach. That's on him. No excuses.
  22. CAPE
    'We just couldn't get to it'. Da Fuck? If you wanted to run it, RUN IT. These bullshit answers. He so needs to be fired. Never happen though.
  23. CAPE
    lol Harbaugh
  24. CAPE
    We already lost Ralph apparently, after his panic posting over a 'can kick' based on one model cycle.
  25. CAPE
    The Canadian has been more bullish on the idea of a strong west based -NAO. Maybe the better models will get there.
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