CAPE

These radical h5 looks need to produce something big.

That really is one hell of a blocky look across the HL region. The hellacious 50-50 low says hold my beer to the impressive Aleutian low.

It has been the outlier, and just made a move towards consensus. If the Euro makes a notable shift next run, I might stay interested. Places near the PA line probably have the best shot with this one.

18z ICON still sucked btw.

Interesting, kinda funny snippet from Mount Holly AFD on this event- A deep upper trough over the West Coast ejects into the southern Plains, and the base of the trough pinches off into a closed upper low over the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states Sunday night. Surface low pressure develops out ahead of it and moves towards the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. This is where the models go awry. The 12Z/08 ECMWF has the low passing through southern New Jersey and Delmarva Monday night, and then the low intensifies off the New Jersey coast as the H5 trough follows behind it Tuesday morning. This system then departs Tuesday afternoon. In terms of sensible weather, the predominant ptype will be rain on Monday, changing to snow over the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey Monday night and Tuesday as colder air filters into the region behind the departing low. A plowable snow is possible for those areas, and possibly even down to the Fall Line. The surface low is faster in the 12Z/08 CMC, with rain moving into the region earlier on Monday, and has the low over eastern Long Island by Tuesday morning. The storm is then gone Tuesday afternoon before the cold air filters into the region. This results in minimal snow accumulation. The outlier, though it has been a consistent outlier, is the 12Z/08 GFS. The storm is much slower, with the low still over North Carolina and Virginia Tuesday morning, and then passes through Delmarva during the day Tuesday before departing Tuesday night. With high pressure building in from the north, cold air advection will be underway, and temperatures drop to below freezing across much of the region. This results in at least a plowable snow across much of southern New Jersey and into Delmarva.

We need that NS interaction. Really energizes it. More lift, quickly intensifying low pressure = heavy precip and column cooling.

The timing of that NS shortwave digging south and beginning to phase is key. Even better this run.

6z GEFS for the 20th. Not bad. On the northern fringe but its frozen lol

A bit difficult to capture it in one 6 hour window, but you can see the spread in timing and low track among the members. The more southern track is the bigger camp.

6z GEFS-

GEFS has had that indication for several runs, but looking at the individual members it has mostly been timing differences. WB is shittier than normal this morning so I can't look at the latest run.

PD looks suppressed for now. Pretty nice signal here. Plenty of spread at this range though. Best shot could be a couple days later.

I was being facetious. The likely failure mode for PD is suppression, not a cutter. The window beyond looks more promising.

Nope. Probably should root for a few more op run cutters to shift the hive northward.

We really need more posts with h5 anomaly maps. I have no idea what the upcoming pattern is supposed going to look like. Heard something about a missing -NAO?

Maybe that op run PD cutter will move the suppression needle on the 18z GEFS.

12 days to go until the 18z GFS op run PD cutter that won't verify, and Chuck's lost -NAO. Some here definitely aren't going to make it.

Isn't the 19th on the radar?

It seems a phase is the way to get colder air involved with precip still ongoing. Need some slight adjustments with the timing to get the low to track a bit further south.

6z GEFS for PD. Gets the precip shield a bit further north.

6z GEFS implies maybe a rain to snow deal from NW to SE. Still a decent amount of spread wrt low position and timing. It will probably take a strong low with some dynamics to overcome the temp issues. A weakish wave passing just to our south is probably a loser for frozen.

Time to root for a phase with slightly different timing maybe. Big differences in how it handles that NS vorticity from run to run.

Phases the NS energy this time.

0z EPS-

0z GEFS for the 19th and the 22nd