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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It appears we are getting the 'ideal' pattern with all the teleconnections in the desired phase. With the coupled PNA/EPO ridge and the NAO ridge building westward and squeezing the TPV southward, the NS is going to be busy and chaotic. Tracking is going to be 'fun', with models struggling to resolve wave interactions and timing between the northern and southern streams.
  2. CAPE
    Put it here
  3. CAPE
    The pattern will take some time to transition, but all the ensembles say its happening. Early on, say the 12th-16th, although its possible the MA could see an event with some frozen, areas further north are favored as it looks right now. The potential storm for mid month looks NS dominant with energy moving southward in the flow between the PNA ridge and the TPV. Difficult to say how that plays out for our region, but behind that it looks like colder air should be in place with a more active southern stream.
  4. CAPE
    Low of 26 with heavy frost and some freezing fog. Looks pretty cool out there this morning.
  5. CAPE
    They are worthless period 15 days out.
  6. CAPE
    I would have downed that sucker to numb the pain after the Ravens debacle. I managed with weed and wine.
  7. CAPE
    I sometimes worry that he won't make it. Cracked that 120 open yet? If not you have more restraint than me.
  8. CAPE
    GFS lol. That's like 4-5" in a very small area. Also has a bit of snow flirting with the MA beaches just beyond this.
  9. CAPE
    This is the mean for the 12-15th window on the 12z GEFS, which is right at the beginning of the pattern transitioning to more favorable. This is horrible?
  10. CAPE
    At least we won't lose Monken after the AFC championship fiasco.
  11. CAPE
    Well MacDonald is the new HC for the Seahawks. Good for them. We stuck with stale Harbaugh who rarely seems to be prepared when it counts the most.
  12. CAPE
    As advertised lack of cold might be a problem with that one. The mid month potential might be more convoluted as the NAO builds west towards Baffin and the TPV gets squeezed south. Long way to go but it appears the legit cold comes in with/behind that.
  13. CAPE
    There are a couple waves of interest on the 12z GEFS- one around the 12th and the next for the 15th.
  14. CAPE
    For me it triggers the feeling that winter will be over soon.
  15. CAPE
    Funny how when Houston was blitzing like 80% of the time in the first half the week before they adjusted and ran the ball in the second half. Got them out of that real quick. Remember KC can't stop the run- Buffalo ran for 192 against them the week before. Unless the coaches were told to throw the game, someone should be fired over this. Egregious.
  16. CAPE
    They needed to run the ball. That would have opened up more opportunities for intermediate routes and downfield. Because they didn't, KC was able to continue to do exactly what they wanted defensively- blanket the receivers much of the time with 6 DBs, leading to low percentage throws downfield(many overthrows on go routes). Lamar gets criticized for that but those guys were covered well, and Ravens don't have a WR other than maybe OBJ(sometimes) that can make contested catches on an intentional underthrow. Would have increased the chance for a DPI though.
  17. CAPE
    The Ravens certainly did everything they could to make it happen.
  18. CAPE
    I probably need to add some 'disclaimers' to my previous post to coddle those who tend to teeter on the edge of panic and have certain misconceptions. That post was simply an interpretation at 2 weeks out of the general idea from current ens guidance for the threat window around mid month- not the actual outcome. Many of our best winter storms are of the Miller B/Hybrid variety. Clearly we can't know any details about wave interactions/timing at this juncture. I think it's time to start looking at and discussing the 'hints' on guidance though. Otherwise we can just continue to post the same H5 panels over and over and geeking out about how gorgeous and epic the advertised pattern is looking going forward. Shame I felt the need to make this post, but I know how it goes here lol.
  19. CAPE
    Beginning to see a persistent signal across ensemble guidance for a storm towards mid month. For now it looks a bit north/Miller B-ish. Need to watch that TPV position in conjunction with the amplified PNA/EPO ridge, as there will be NS energy dropping southward in the flow and interacting with southern waves.
  20. CAPE
  21. CAPE
    Massive 50-50 low with Scandi ridge leading in.
  22. CAPE
    I recall there being an east based -NAO. Wasn't the classic NA look that's for sure.
  23. CAPE
    lol I really can't disagree with this.
  24. CAPE
    This is probably our next trackable window. Seeing an indication of a shortwave in the southern stream with improvements in the high latitudes.
  25. CAPE
    Religion is a personal thing. To each their own. Don't assume everyone wants to engage. What I meant by presumptuous.
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