Awesome. It really is worth it, and even 12 bucks a bottle isn't really out of line. Get it cold, then sip it slow, and savor it- as it warms and opens up, the complex notes become more apparent. Enjoy it!
The potential storm for the 5th is showing signs of being a southern slider. Have to see about temps but the snow mean has ticked up to our south. I made a post this morning illustrating why this storm may track further south, or even dampen/weaken as it moves towards the SE coast. Long way to go though, and lots of details to be worked out.
The amplifying Hudson ridge and associated wave break forces a lot of vorticity southward, developing a strong vortex underneath. This may ultimately act to dampen/force southward the shortwave ejecting eastward for the Feb 5th potential. This is still pretty far out so hard to know details, but the general idea looks similar on the GEFS.
These wave (breaking) interactions help to evolve the HL pattern from an amped central Canada ridge into a developing -NAO.
These super LR tools can't 'see' discrete threats. Only thing they are good for is indicating the general longwave pattern. From that, we can glean the potential for cold and snow. Goddamn snow maps lol.
I chased an early Jan beach blizzard at Rehoboth in 2017. Got 5-6" in my yard from that storm, and there was a couple other smaller events. Wasn't awful, at least over here.
No way to know the exact character of the ENSO event or how the winter will play out. Get a few weeks where the Aleutian ridge morphs into a -EPO and we might have a January 2022 type period.
Yeah and just saying 'east of the Fall line' doesn't work either. My yard is well east of the Fall line and there have been many enjoyable winter storms in March since I have lived here. Not sure about double digit snow events, but who cares especially in March.