40/70 Benchmark

Yes, I meant for SNE.

I don't value you that as much as some do...I know raindance is big on that. But again.....just because I incorporate an analog does not mean I endorse it 100%. A concept I wish people could grasp more assertively with respect to politics.

Its not a problem if you apply them correctly, which I will attempt to do. Not all about blocking, though....you guys need it to couple with a PNA spike, usually. SNE ca get away with one or the other.

At least you'll have time to read them this season. Learn a few things and revive the Ginxy Gale monthly calls.

Its around average, I think...which makes sense.

Its pretty self explanatory......IMHO those are the best matches using a combo of ENSO intensity and distribution of warmest SST anomalies. I mean, we are mainly referencing "anomalies" when speaking of sensible weather, so I don't see why the end result should be much different. I def. would shy away from using very potent la nina as analog seasons, given that ENSO may not be as a pervasive driver due to AGW.

It can't go on forever...same deal with the Pats. Eventually, even the best step back for a time.

That is not my complete composite....just the three best ENSO matches by a combo of structure and intensity.

How does Arozarena and Brousard's a$$ taste?

Last update from me until go-time Novie 11. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/mixed-signals-regarding-enso-for-winter.html

More Scott and Will than me....but yea. Passive aggressive extraction of information.

He's trying to coax you into asserting otherwise, so that he can fit snuggly into his pinstriped footie jammies tonight with a peace of mind.

@Dr. Dews, What I meant was this winter should be serviceable...IOW, not a complete no-show, like last year.

@Typhoon Tip This piece of literature from several years ago seems to harken back to what you were saying about the Pacific driving the atlantic. In addition, many studies reported that the tropical Pacific heating have effects on the tropical Atlantic SST anomaly (Wolter 1987; Curtis and Hastenrath 1995; Gallego et al. 2001; Alexander et al. 2002; Huang et al. 2002), which is argued to affect the North Atlantic atmosphere (e.g., Watanabe and Kimoto 1999; Robertson et al. 2000). Therefore, the tropical Atlantic SST may serve as a mediator to link the tropical Pacific SST anomaly and the NA atmosphere. You guys should have a look at this piece....great job at detailing the divergent la nina evolutions, and the differences across NA. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

Yes, we rest our case. Of course, you also had gm 7 of 2003....but the innings were "serviceable". As this winter should be.

Yea, can't stand him as a analyst, though....as vanilla as they get.

And to expound on this point.....big reason they came back from down 3-0 is that Wake pitched like 4 innings in relief as they were getting waxed in game 3 of the ALCS by the Yanks. Saved the staff.

Yes. 2004, 2007.

Some halfway decent elevation in spots, too...relatively speaking

2011 and 1999 were also fairly east-based, so no sure thing...but helps.

14OCT2020 19.6-1.2 23.6-1.3 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.9 Region 1.2 hanging tough at -1.2.....3.4 down to -1.4

Almost like the ENSO deformation zone haha Exactly. Same page....pinning the forcing west is never a bad thing.

Do you agree with what I said about potentially keeping westward progression at bay?

Yes...split flow. But all things being equal, I will take the cold source....obviously in la nina when its probably all N stream.