40/70 Benchmark

Yea, too many knee-jerk reactions going over board with la nina last month...could see this coming.

Not necessarily....there is some evidence that la nina coupled with easterly QBO leads to a flatter NPAC ridge, but I was honestly interested in hearing his rationale.

Why?

Agreed.

Could be a Fran or Bertha type deal....

Some will, I won't.

Ahh...good, 'ole summer banter, which consists of the usual bickering over whether 91/63 or 84/71 is preferred. See ya soon.

I wouldn't say last season has a weak MEI....it was on par with a moderate event.

Works for me.

I am not remiss that 1977 is so prevalent in rainedance's research.

Makes sense to me, as well because I do think that is a very good analog.

Yea, that was the primary impetus behind that winter being a no-show. Bit of a conflicting signal there, as easterly QBO is generally more conducive to high latitude blocking. It will bare watching, but I think the fact that this event should remain pretty weak and peak early will help our cause. I am not at all pessimistic and feel relatively confident.

Be careful with that linear line of thinking....like I was saying to Will above....the MEI is a measure of how well coupled the ocean (ENSO event) is with the atmosphere, rather than a strict measure of strength. So while I do modify my list of analogs somewhat based upon MEI data, it should not be substituted for the ONI. A weak la nina with a strong MEI means that we have a weak la nina that is very well coupled with the atmosphere, not a strong la nina. What this means is that this particular ENSO event is more likely to be able to play a prominent role in modulating the forcing relative to other events of comparable ONI strength that are less coupled with the atmosphere....IE we are more likely to see a la nina footprint over the course of a season than others. I would also venture to say that the prudent course of action is to err more towards moderate ONI analogs, then cool-neutral, since we know it is impacting the atmosphere somewhat more proficiently than other events of comparable ONI. ONI=strength of influence, MEI=the ability of the ENSO event to impart its will around the hemisphere, regardless of strength. A crude sports analogy is to think of the fact that your most powerful athletes are not always the most prolific..., sure, there is a correlation. But the best athletes a feature the nexus of strength and skill.

I don't feel like we are going to see a monster +AO, though, so while 2011-2012 may be a viable analog....I wouldn't be too concerned about such a dire outcome.

This is the equivalent of winter threads in November...blue balls abound, but not much in the offing quite yet.

I honestly don't think it matters much. The MEI is pretty robust, so I'd be considering moderate analogs, anyway.

Agree. I value the MEI, but its important not to get too carried away with it. It just means that this particular ENSO event is well coupled with the atmosphere....its not an excuse to expect a strong la nina outcome with a weak ONI designation. However, I wouldn't hesitate to incorporate some moderate strength analogs despite ONI merely reflecting weak if that ends up being the case.

Yea, been hedging that way for a while, but it feels like some folks get too carried away with the subsurface....those intense anomalies often don't entirely make it to the surface. Def. a feather in the hat of the la nina camp, though.

This la nina is not going to be strong. I wouldn't rule out nudging into moderate territory, but weak la nina is by far the most favored outcome and has been for a bit.

I get that the solar cycle has some value, as everything should be considered, but it is not the only factor. The fact of the matter is that in the grand scheme of things, we have been in quite a stretch of predominately +NAO seasons. Prior to last winter, we had experienced just one negative NAO DM month dating back to March 2013 (March 2018). Again, I understand that neg NAO is more favored around and immediately following solar min, but other than that context, we are most assuredly not due for positive NAO winter seasons. Quite the contrary. I'm not suggesting that this means that we have to see a succession of negative NAO seasons, but it is what it is.

Just some light rain at home....it really picked up once I hit rt 128 and was pouring here at work in Chelsea.

No, its those new, fangled, exciting type of rain drops this time.

Intuitively, I would say that it is likely due to the wave lengths being so much shorter during the summer....the teles are much weaker and more diffuse, so many of the "rules" are broken.

If the predominate pattern of the season holds, then the east coast (not necessarily northeast) is going to have issues...that was the gist of my blog.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/hurricane-season-set-to-ramp-up.html