40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I figured as much.

Based on what?

The tweak is specifically to address the tropics. Taken from FB: "Apparently the Euro will be getting a big upgrade in a few weeks, and this update is specifically designed to fix some of the errors that have popped up in recent years in the tropics since the update they made in 2018, which was designed to increase the model’s accuracy with mesoscale features up at Europe’s latitude. Anywho, this new Euro designed to be more like the old Euro with tropical systems is now running parallel to current Euro. And wouldn’t you know it? It shows a violent capture with the upper level low and pinwheels a major hurricane into southeast New England next weekend". More details: "Cycle upgrade 47r3 will bring improvements to the assimilation and observations usage and a significantly improved physical basis for moist processes, necessary to facilitate further development of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and future application at convection-permitting resolutions. The upgrade will bring more accurate upper air fields, particularly tropical winds, as well as precipitation in convective regimes. Several new convection-related products will be available and systematic errors are reduced for wind gusts and visibility for fog and precipitation".

Its def. erratic if you only consider phase/intensity and not structure (ie placement of strongest anomalies and attendant convective forcing scheme). I think that clears up alot, though obviously still not perfect. Anyway, its beneficial that we have so many different methodologies.

Never happen....you can't consider it that linear in nature. No winter, at this latitude, will ever produce that proficiently throughout the entirety of the winter, outside of LES belts and high terrain. There is enough flux due to the MJO that Boston will never see 150".

Update cancel?

Well, its basin wide now and looks to remain as such on most guidance....actually region 1.2 has slight positive anomalies, but my thought is that is negated by the fact that the coldest values are in region 3.

@CoastalWx What do you make of the para Euro?

I don't leave until 10/8

I don't have sources for number one....just going off of what others have said. Look at my last blog post for number two...the link is a ways back...I posted it yeaterday.

That wasn't fruit, it was bile.

Well, there are two main reasons why you get a flat ridge in a la nina.. 1) -QBO/La nina = flat Aleutian ridge 2) Modoki-west based la nina=flat ridge. We have the first one working against us, and the second one is kind of a neutral signal, but I think we have a shot to build it since la nina will remain weak. I am not a huge proponent of #1, as that can be overcome.

At least winter tracking bares fruit

Agree

No, actually I don't....everyone on the board knows that I don't care about the small events. I'm known for it.

Yea, I guess maybe HC expansion is augmenting things, but that is a shit pattern, too.

I actually agree with this, but think it may take a bit longer to become established in December.

The PAC jet is all about what happens near AK...you want higher heights around AK, like NCEP, EURO and JMA have. The French and to a lesser extent, the UK guidance are more hostile there. The westerly modoki la nina is more likely to have issues with the pac jet bc the Aleutian ridge is more suppressed and does not extend north into AK. The la nina events with colder anomalies further east tend to pop a ridge further north that extends into AK. You are going to have a ridge near the Aleutians in a la nina due to the Hadley Cell configuration, just as you will a trough in an el nino...its all about placement of anomalies that determines the precise location/configuration, as Scott said.

Why is that? Was 2017-2018 a bad winter for you?

Not IMHO. I'd rather cut my nails.

This.

Piece of advise....don't get hung up on 50 mile trends from a tropical system tracking se of NE....its akin to chasing a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. If things ever changed and that thing hit the US, you will see whole scale changes....its not going to get it done slowly trending to the NE from over Georgia's Bank.

I agree with you on it not being purely modoki or east-based...I have it as mixed type, like last year's event.