40/70 Benchmark

I agree its a ratter here....but there are seasons that only featured half of the amount of snowfall that we received this season, so I can not in good faith give it an "F".

I didn't mention anything about that...you did, presumably in an effort to deflect away from the fact that a large portion of the region did not fit the definition of a rat season.

Alrighty then. In our area, it sucked....I would give it a D.

You thought Boston would have average or above snowfall? Kudos for forecasting that unique type of "rat" with absolute surgical precision.

Okay. I think you are in the minority there, but that is your opinion. I don't think most would grade a winter that included a below average January and a 24-30"+ blizzard an "F-" season.

If you want to pat yourself on the back for correctly diagnosing the lack of blocking in the arctic based upon the very mild fall, okay...fine. But this season had the poleward Pacific ridging that most east-based la nina seasons do, which is why it was not a 2011-2012 type of rat.

You know what I mean, dude....we missed out on the very heavy amounts. And I disagree that if I had experienced what NYC did in that January 2016 storm, then I would not have graded it an "F". If you poll most NYC weenies, they probably would not grade it an F.

I agree in general, however, last autumn was so mild that most of the analogs for that degree of warmth in the fall were ratters....if you went based just upon that, then a ratter would have been the forecast. That is what Fisher did, which I thought was silly and still do. This was not a prototypical ratter of a season, but unfortunately the interior just never caught a break.

Depends on the location....both of those seasons, this year and 2015-2016, had historic blizzards.....so it was really only a bad season if you missed out on said events. I-95 had a pretty good snowfall season this year.

That signal a week out is almost worth paying attention to.

Doubtful.

For the kids? That's Mooseup's best seller and Steve's bedside reading

Pfffftttt

.64" RF today....nice soaking. Hi of 47

I'm checked out at this point.....I don't have any ideas RE anything. All I need to know is that no snow is imminent, so I'm off to baseball.

This month doesn't look to end up particularly notable for any reason.

Yea, I missed that one haha

Caveat being its always pretty unlikely from late March onward....but I would argue that you have to toss the whole "tenor of the season" thing at that point, as well....everything just reshuffles as the wavelengths shorten and it really ceases to be relevant anymore. It just becomes a total crapshoot/lottery.

The first December event was good where we are, but the second one was snow to rain.

Yea, I bet against the sun late season and lost....my amounts were still good near the coast, but total fail across the interior.

You never know....96-97 was the ultimate rat season until March 31-April 1. Obviously I agree its unlikely to happen...that is why I am so scare these days.

The largest key is more data IMO. As far as models go, I look to then for confirmation...they don't constitute my forecast. They aren't very skilled at the seasonal level, either.

Well, I agree with you that if you are going to throw out specific analog seasons, then it is very important to be detailed in explaining what their perceived value is and why.

Well, I would certainly hope Noyes would have better luck forecasting at 30 days lead, as opposed to 3-4 months lead. I don't really have an issue with a set of analog seasons not being disclosed per se, but I am pretty confident that anyone making a seasonal outlook examines the past to some degree.....even "examining patterns leading into the winter months" implies that they are comparing it to past seasons in order to try to glean some idea of how the pattern may evolve moving forward. I don't think anyone will forecast a cold winter simply because October, November and December were cold and stormy....patterns flip.

I completely agree with you on that...if I use 1976-1977 as a primary analog, there is no way that I would expect it to be as cold today. Recognizing that and responsibly using analog seasons are not mutually exclusive, they are analogous. Larry Cosgrove would tell you that....he spouts off analog seasons all throughout the lead up to winter.