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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember I got into a bit of a debate with him on Twitter after he posted his wintee outlook...he said it would be a ratter bc off all of the other warmest fall analogs. I told him point blank, the la nina is east based, so we are probably going to get at least one really wintery stretch due to poleward Aleutian ridging.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just mean if my area were to end up in the max axis, it could easily end up over 2"....not that it necessarily has to happen like that.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    91-92 was a strong east-based el nino....maybe the volcano enhanced the impact as far as +NAO/AO, but I don't think that season needed much help to suck.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I would take the over.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey, almost more than I had for July and August combined....nice dent.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is it me, or does the constant need for Eric Fisher to give very PC responses get on your last nerve? He is on twitter talking about how he felt dissapointed over Edouard whiffing in '96 bc he was just a dumb kid...I replied that any adult weather enthusiast would be disappointed whether they admit it or not. Guy gets on my nerves.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Finally...I think its over.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, obviously..same here. La nina was the priority. That changes next year.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Figure it has to rain appreciably here at some point....maybe this is it.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Will you be smiln'?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I need to do en Nino composites, as well. I'll do those either next spring or summer.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you look through the composites, it matches up pretty well with what you would expect., with descent above the coolest anomalies, and ascent aligned with the warmer.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I included velocity potential along with the H5/temp and precip composites.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I only use analogs back to 1950, so the 1951-2010 climo period is fine for me.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure the cut-off will be a couple of miles N of me.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Down to 44.1 this AM.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I never said I'd forecast a big year down there. I will put numbers to everything in a couple of months. It's tough to discuss is too much right now because there is still a great deal of equivocating at this early juncture.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. I'll give that a shot. Like Summy said, the latest climo period does begin to wash out the anomalies, which defeats the purpose. That's why you need to use a larger climo period.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its actually on Long island.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    We need Forky to remind you that the snow stopped and the vis improved.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Without reading the article, I am going to take a wild guess and assume that this correlates to a +NAO/AO this winter and an enhanced PV.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its no coincidence why this composite gives us the warmest look...its west-based.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is important is how the sst anomalies at a given posotion manifest themselves into the weather pattern around the hemisphere, not an arbitrary longitude where you feel as though said manifestation should take place. Anyway, just my view....we are all different.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I guess we are just going to have to agree to disagree on this. The anomaly in this composite is centered at like 165-170W, which is pretty far to the west, and that is reflected in the resultant H5 and VP (forcing) composites.
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