40/70 Benchmark

"One may note that the El Niño in mode 2 evolves from the peak phase of La Niña and the Indian Ocean experiences a decaying process of basinwide cooling". Doesn't seem to be a coincidence that we usually have a modoki following a prolonged stretch of la nina.

Actually, you are right....the IOD-ENSO link doesn't apply for year long la nina events...only ones that have their initial onset during the spring.

The first mode (mode 1) of the Indo-Pacific SST covariation, shown in Fig. 1, explains 47% of the total variance. Also drawn in Fig. 1 are the regressed 850-hPa wind anomalies onto the principal component (PC) time series. This mode shows a developing phase of ENSO starting from boreal spring (Fig. 1a) and peaking in winter. SST anomalies first appear near the South American coast (Figs. 1a–c) before extending westward over the central-eastern Pacific. In the Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of the IOD pattern begin to form in early summer. Then, the IOD gradually develops with the developing ENSO and reaches its peak in boreal fall (Figs. 1g,h) and finally decays after October (Figs. 1i,j). This is a typical pattern of ENSO–IOD coevolution (Saji et al. 1999). El Niño excites an atmospheric teleconnection over the Indian Ocean and causes easterly wind anomalies conducive to the IOD during boreal summer and fall (Klein et al. 1999; Alexander et al. 2002). View Full Size Fig. 1. (a)–(j) First mode of the rotated S-EOF for tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies (shading) and 850-hPa winds (vectors) regressed onto PC-1, (k) PC-1. Citation: Journal of Climate 30, 6; 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0426.1 From what I am reading, there is nothing to suggest that this particular episode of negative IOD developed independent of la nina....it seems pretty standard for a given IOD episode to develop during the early portion of the summer and grow in tandem with ENSO. The article goes onto state that IOD is usually tied to early onset ENSO events, and not later onset events. I would have to consider this one the former, since its a multi year event...the implication being that la nina likely provided the impetus for this particular round of -IOD.

Yea, kind of tough to hang your hat on, but...

Yea, it probably won't be as hot at this summer apex flex has been, but above normal, nometheless.

2000-2001 is pretty deceiving because while it was not particularly snowy along the northeast coast, just inland it was an absolutely insane season...talking 4-5' March depths in the Monadnocks of SW NH. Caveat being I don't think the ACE will end up as high as it did that year...

Check out my P&C for Sunday...lol Sunday A slight chance of showers between 11am and 3pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. About as hot as it ever gets around these parts....at least there looks to be a breeze.

I think the first half of August will average pretty toasty before we step down a bit...

How do you figure?

I'm actually getting the 7/11 split with a storm popping over KLWM, just to my south.

Just missed the T storms to my north, but clouded up and got windy, which dropped the temp from the high of 94.8 down to 81. Sun poking back out and temp up to 82.2

Intensity is a foregone conclusion...going to begin to hone in on structure during August. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/07/confidence-grows-for-weak-la-nina.html

Sometimes it is...the exact relationship between the two is a bit of a wild card.

Anyway, la nina will definitely have an impact...not saying it won't. I actually don't mind 1975-1976 as a potential analog.....

Independent of la nina? We had already been two plus years deep into la nina.... The early portion of winter, which would act to pin forcing over the west pacific...that buttresses the idea of a fast start.

I think the strongly negative IOD and MEI are a reflection of this past year, not necessarily of what will be several months down the line.

I am firmly in the cold-neutral to weak la nina camp for winter, but I would not rule out enough residual coolness lingering into early winter for a moderate "peak", though I don't think it would mean anything.

It will be a tricky season because we are backing out of the ENSO state, as opposed to the atmosphere riding the coat tails of a burgeoning event.....thus I do not feel as though the forcing will be commensurate with a lot of the global indicators that normally provide insight into the strength of ENSO.....kind of like seeing this big bulge of warmth in the GOA, but knowing that the pattern has already changed and the residual SST pattern is just a reflection of what was, not what will be.

It could....I mean, its moderate now. Depends on how quickly it can decay later this fall and into early winter. I think the strongly negative IOD belies the ultimate intensity of the la nina this cold season....be careful about interpreting the rather robust -IOD as an ensuing major la nina event. The IOD is also influenced by the timing of ENSO events, not just the strength....thus earlier onset la nina is correlated to more robust -IOD events. This of course is a well-established, multi year cold ENSO. Its later onset ENSO events that are less likely to manifest in changes to the IOD. I am finding some really interesting stuff concerning the IOD...I suspected that -IOD was correlated to el nino modoki due to the co occurrence of increased convection over the W PAC, and early returns are that I am right. Just another feather in the cap of an el nino modoki once this cold ENSO decays during the coming winter. Do you have a good link for IOD data?

Save the gas and order the jersey online.

I think you guys could get in on some of the good early season stretch.....may not be a disaster.

Colder December would also fit with the theme of a more central based cold ENSO relative to last year.

I topped off at 95.1 yesterday...probably a similar high today, but more humid. 87.3 off of a low of 70.5, at present.

That is precisely how I would run global warming if given the choice....structure it so that the obnoxious pipe bursting nights are fewer and farther between, while minimizing impact otherwise.