40/70 Benchmark

Well, there are two main reasons why you get a flat ridge in a la nina.. 1) -QBO/La nina = flat Aleutian ridge 2) Modoki-west based la nina=flat ridge. We have the first one working against us, and the second one is kind of a neutral signal, but I think we have a shot to build it since la nina will remain weak. I am not a huge proponent of #1, as that can be overcome.

At least winter tracking bares fruit

Agree

No, actually I don't....everyone on the board knows that I don't care about the small events. I'm known for it.

Yea, I guess maybe HC expansion is augmenting things, but that is a shit pattern, too.

I actually agree with this, but think it may take a bit longer to become established in December.

The PAC jet is all about what happens near AK...you want higher heights around AK, like NCEP, EURO and JMA have. The French and to a lesser extent, the UK guidance are more hostile there. The westerly modoki la nina is more likely to have issues with the pac jet bc the Aleutian ridge is more suppressed and does not extend north into AK. The la nina events with colder anomalies further east tend to pop a ridge further north that extends into AK. You are going to have a ridge near the Aleutians in a la nina due to the Hadley Cell configuration, just as you will a trough in an el nino...its all about placement of anomalies that determines the precise location/configuration, as Scott said.

Why is that? Was 2017-2018 a bad winter for you?

Not IMHO. I'd rather cut my nails.

This.

Piece of advise....don't get hung up on 50 mile trends from a tropical system tracking se of NE....its akin to chasing a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. If things ever changed and that thing hit the US, you will see whole scale changes....its not going to get it done slowly trending to the NE from over Georgia's Bank.

I agree with you on it not being purely modoki or east-based...I have it as mixed type, like last year's event.

Looking at the rest of the data...NCEP looks good. France guidance def, worst....warm and dry. UK is mild, but active...would probably be okay for at least CNE on north. Canadian is meh...bit mild, probably average precip. Its mostly about where the most negative anomalies end up in la nina, but there are of course others factors at play....especially the weaker la nina is.

This looks more like the modoki composite at H5....we'll see. Gonna need the la nina to shift a lot more west, like the French guidance.

Euro is most supported by current ENSO configuration and subsurface.

I know...that is the middle ground solution, too...JMA is 95-96, and French is 1999-2000

It's going to drift west and slowly strengthen based on subsurface.

Just bc the northern mid atl may not do as well as NE doesn't mean is a terd for them.

Definitely is. No way it gets that strong.

Yes times a million. I just did a blog post on this.

Why must everything be extreme?

Last major primer for outlook. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/structural-nuances-in-la-nina.html

Not worried at all.