40/70 Benchmark

You never know....96-97 was the ultimate rat season until March 31-April 1. Obviously I agree its unlikely to happen...that is why I am so scare these days.

The largest key is more data IMO. As far as models go, I look to then for confirmation...they don't constitute my forecast. They aren't very skilled at the seasonal level, either.

Well, I agree with you that if you are going to throw out specific analog seasons, then it is very important to be detailed in explaining what their perceived value is and why.

Well, I would certainly hope Noyes would have better luck forecasting at 30 days lead, as opposed to 3-4 months lead. I don't really have an issue with a set of analog seasons not being disclosed per se, but I am pretty confident that anyone making a seasonal outlook examines the past to some degree.....even "examining patterns leading into the winter months" implies that they are comparing it to past seasons in order to try to glean some idea of how the pattern may evolve moving forward. I don't think anyone will forecast a cold winter simply because October, November and December were cold and stormy....patterns flip.

I completely agree with you on that...if I use 1976-1977 as a primary analog, there is no way that I would expect it to be as cold today. Recognizing that and responsibly using analog seasons are not mutually exclusive, they are analogous. Larry Cosgrove would tell you that....he spouts off analog seasons all throughout the lead up to winter.

There are so many different variables at play, that forecasts miss "something" more often than not...either that, and/or they are not weighted properly into the forecast. Example...I was able to discern that the Aleutian ridging would have episodes where it extended far enough poleward to induce some notable wintery periods by looking at past east biased la nina seasons..ie, no total blow torch rater like 2011-2012. However, I apparently did not weight the abrupt rise in solar activity that took place last fall heavily enough, so the forecast SSW/blocking never materialized. The poleward Aleutian ridging was able to compromise to a degree, but even that failed in March. We do know from utilizing analogs of past seasons that an abrupt rise in solar activity is detrimental to blocking, but I made the decision that it wouldn't play as large a role as it apparently did. You can use analogs, and still miss...no one is implying its a "silver bullet"...it is incumbent upon the forecaster to apply and weight them correctly.

I'm not sure how you can begin to formulate an idea of what will happen months in advance without analyzing the past to some degree. Again, doesn't have to mean you are right.

The incorrect ones, absolutely. Don't confuse what I am saying....using analog seasons doesn't mean you have to be right. At the end of the day, regardless of whether you provide a list of seasons or don't, the return rate on accurate forecasts is relatively low.

Well, let me know when you make a concerted effort to apply them. I understand if you do not want to disclose a list of analog seasons per se, but anyone claiming to compose a seasonal forecast without analyzing the past to at least some degree is full of shit.

I love when it gets dark early around the holidays. Hopefully this gets hung up. Would also means models will always be an hour later, which would suck.

Depends how they are used....if you expect any given analog year to be a virtual carbon copy of the forecast season, then they are all pretty likely to fail. ....however, if you are just looking to glean a better idea of what may or may not happen in a given season, then they are very useful. I used some seasons that were pretty snowy, and others that were not snowy at all and very specific reasons were given why.

My early money on a weak to perhaps moderate el nino....perhaps modified version of 1976-1977, 2002-2003, or 1986-1987. While my snowfall forecasts have been decent overall, they have definitely been somewhat "hit or miss"....but my ENSO calls have been pretty lethal.

It would go along way towards regional regression to get an interior bowling ball with like a 2/1/21 gradient to end this season, but count me out of betting on it to actually take place.

90% chance its over.

+ 1/2" 42" Not sure why the table says 42.25"....its 42".

Very strong forecast overall....always take the under on snowfall from a storm attached to a cold front. The drier air is usually in when the cold arrives. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../stormy... Final Grade: A

I am going to dig into assigning el nino events dating back to 1950s this summer, like I did la nina last year.

The structure is not as important with weak events.....there is more variation, but I would still rather west. 1976-1977 was actually very east based....

Only ended up with .37" QPF....what a bust of a system. I knew QPF was overplayed...never trust a cold frontal storm.

Good, my 2-4" did verify there.

1/2" here Only a trace down at the bday I was at in Malden

Modest el nino.

Yikes, even I busted for his spot.

Yea, I wasn't implying that you did...just using your ob as validation. I never even saw a flake here. Expected like a coating to an inch...over it. Onto baseball, tropics and winter 2022-2023.