40/70 Benchmark

While I do not think it will be a blockbuster season, I don't buy the rationale that this winter will automatically suck because of the la nina/+QBO couplet, assuming la nina remains weak.....at least not with respect to New England.

It isn't. I mentioned it, along with several other seasons, in one of my posts as support for a modoki el nino once this multi-season cold ENSO event concludes.

Note that last season, being a very heavily biased towards the east, featured a very mild December...and a colder mid season. This quoted material explains that relationship well. Of course, it didn't have the big ending that thought was possible due to (in my opinion) that very quick uptick in solar activity last season. But this is why I expect a better December this year and a more meager mid winter period relative to last winter.

I will update these to incorporate last season's la nina into the east-based composite, as I have yet to do so. The updated east-based la nina composite will be included in the 2022-2023 outlook.

Here is a bit of a refresher taken from last season's outlook that illustrates what I have alluded to above: There exist some notable differences between these two disparate types of la nina events. Here are a couple of schematics outlining these differences: Differences between east-based La Nina's & central-based La Nina's Figure A is east-based. Figure B is central-based DJF 500mb for East-based years: DJF Temps Ironically in east-based years JFM is colder than Dec. Dec is typically the warmest month in the east-based years, which runs counter to typical cold ENSO climo. JFM 500mb east-based years JFM Temps Compare all of that to central-based La Nina years: DJF 500mb DJF Temps December is the coldest month for central-based Nina's. One thing worth noting is not all East-based Nina's are frigid, as there is variability due to the relatively weak ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is because many east-based events, as is the case with modoki el nino events, are weaker. You can have warmth, especially if the event is weaker, and one such case is 2005-2006. Likewise, there were some weak modoki events that were fairly cold across the eastern US, such as 2000-20001. This is further proof that there does indeed exist a structural mechanism beyond strength that dictates the overall character of la nina events and one of the focal points of this writing is to elucidate that point. There are some "hybrid" events that share both east-based and modoki traits. You can have a Nina that is a mix of east-based versus central-based, or "basin-wide", such as both this season and last.

Well, there is a modoki spectrum.....while its probably going to be more west-based (modoki) than last season's, that isn't saying very much because last year was heavily biased to the east. Furthermore, even it if is decidedly towards the modoki end of the spectrum, the impending la nina will not be as prominent as the one last season, so it isn't necessarily "game over" for the northeast this winter. There is more variability with respect to meager ENSO events. For instance, the 2005-2006 la nina was heavily east based, but it was very weak...thus the winter was still mild. The el nino of 1976-1977, which was accompanied by that earth-shattering cold winter season, was actually a heavily eastward leaning el nino....but again, it was very meager.

Yea, its been apparent for a while this tropical season was over forecast by the consensus...Cosgrove has been all over that dating back to last spring.

I don't think they will hear it all the way from Africa.

I think it viable to debate what percentage of GW is anthropogenic, but there is no question that humans are partially to blame.

This quote has potential lol

Well, that's obvious to me....if someone doesn't understand that, then its their problem.

Over the course of the past week, we have definitely entered that climo apex when the dews and heat always win in the end....you can feel it. Its just a matter of how miserable it will get.

Which models are you viewing? IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | July 2022 Quick Look (columbia.edu)

You know we need the cold season when scooter starts rapping about droughts.

Yay, I've finally jackpotted.

Yea, just cements the notion that we aren't having an el nino this winter. Will the Pac be as hostile as it was last season? No.

I feel like that is implicit today....everyone understands that.

I probably had a similar amount to you.

Looks like there was some rain last night...it was wet. Won't check the gage until tonight, though.

Fixed. I suspect Kev may have left "dystopian" out of that search, though lol

For a few years, such as we are currently seeing...but interminably? No, because the nature of the processes, such as the Walker cycle, etc, that comprise ENSO are ultimately self-destructive.

Looks like its essentially the west PAC cousin of ENSO....largely modulated by Walker Cycle, as well? May be interesting to see if IOD phase is correlated to whether a given ENSO event is modoki or canonical....I will look into that this season.

I need to look into the IOD...its admittedly a hole in my knowledge base. I may research and add a write up about it this season, since its a repeat la nina and I don't have much work to do surrounding ENSO.

ENSO is always a good starting point. I agree, early portion looks better and mid winter worse relative to last season. One point, though....2000-2001 wasn't front loaded, at least up here....it was pretty relentless activity, with a relative burst early and late. March was actually the most furious stretch.