40/70 Benchmark

2012-2013 is another potential analog to keep in mind...

This warm season has been a winner, so far....no complaints. I'm sure we will get some dewy days, but its been manageable.

I just mentioned 2018-2019 in the SNE thread....agree that is a potential early analog.

2018-2019 and, as already mentioned, 1976-1977 will be two potential analogs to monitor in the early going

I am beginning to grow confident that it will be warm-neutral.....I think a full-fledged el nino is exceedingly unlikely looking at ONI climo data.

Watch 1976 as a potential analog this fall...I see some parallels with respect to ENSO recovery.

Dude must be a blast to live or hang out with.

1.09" today, after .25" yesterday.

For those proponents of the Atlantic May-Aug subsurface as a predictor of the DF NAO, we are off to one hell of a start-

We've been in a period kind of akin to the 1950s over the past several years, and we may be ready to take a plunge into a modified version of the 60s rather shortly...

My confidence is usually pretty high by September.....what I am confident of right now is that I do not see an intense, or even moderate ENSO event next season....just a matter of which side of neutral it will lay. The Pacific has been my strength with respect to seasonal forecasting....its the Atlantic and polar domain that I have really struggled with. I have nailed (verification is defined as within .3 either direction) my ENSO forecasts 7/8 seasons.....however, you would have been better served assuming the opposite of whatever I forecast with respect to the NAO, as I am 0/6.

Poor Rico....he was never the same after that. RIP.

I love how winter is over "Morch" first, but there will still be plenty of hot and humid weather to go 3.5 months from now, which brings us to nearly October.

Maybe sensible weather wise....but off the top of my head, I would toss out 1957-1958, 1976-1977 (obviously modified), 1986-1987, 2002-2003, 2014-2015 (obviously not 100" in 30 days).

I've been saying I have been due for something approaching normal or above snowfall 5 years running now and it hasn't happened lol.

Its seems tongue and check, but its honestly not....I'm dead serious. There is going to be a nice el nino (probably modoki) either this season or next.

The path of least resistance is to scoff while offering an assortment of weenie and confused emojies, but take a look at el nino seasons coming off of 3 year plus cool ENSO cycles...its pretty iron clad. If this year ends up an el nino, then it could be this year.

I am going to go on record right now.....you guys heard it here first, but the winter of 2023-2024 is going to crush it. Jury still out on this season...it could go either way, but take '23-'24 to the bank.

Under the cover of dark?

What I mean by extreme is all-time type record heat. I think we all understand that intense cold and heat can still occur in March and September, respectively, but the ceiling (floor) is not as extreme as July (January).

I have no use for the extreme cold, as its miserable....even involving storms.... it often leads to CJs.

That's fine, at least I know the end is in sight by that point.

Still not as intense because there is a higher starting point owed to increased solar irradiance, but yea.....you lose the "warm bum in car" insolation.

March is a snowier month than December, on average.

Yea, I said heat....humidity, sure....seasonal lag. Just like March can have a ton of snow, but intense and persistent cold is harder to come by.