40/70 Benchmark

The mid levels are a HUGE red flag in this.....its a limiting factor that is next to impossible to overcome if you are looking for excessive snowfall amounts. 1) They are flying west, so you not only have warm air advection, which is the primary mechanism for precipitation for us...but you also have a dry slot that will shut off precip shortly after change over well inland. 2) The mid level mechanics/dynamics will be in decay on approach, which would still be a limiting factor even if it were tracking farther east. This will be a nice, lateral thump of WAA driven snowfall for a several hours, and that is it....you warm and dry out in the mid levels and its done.

I always do a first call 72-84 hours out.

Ugh...hadn't seen this. Sorry to be redundant.

Same page....I hit on both of these aspects in my first call.

Kev must have early onset dementia...always disoriented.

Disregarded for now.

Unfortunately, Henry's weather looks pretty boring on Monday.

Final Call on Sunday.. First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/first-call-for-major-mess-likely-tuesday.html

Agree.

Technically, yea. The N stream phases into the back side of the trough, which tilts it negative and slings the s stream SW up the coast.

Aside from some weenie PTSD derived superstition about when to start threads....

Nothing wrong with your original post, frustration not withstanding. It was actually some stellar, spot on analysis.

I would say literally like 8/10 times phasing is over modeled, question is by how much.

I agree wholesale with this.

The bottom line is that whenever it feels as though a positive development is emerging with respect to this system, wait for the catch.

Don't worry be ginxy

@White Gorilladisagrees

Yea, okay..agree....but I think 12" is pushing it. That high would need to trend better fast BC I doubt we wil see the necessary mid level changes to drive those amounts.

I think that is a reasonable ceiling for my area.

LOL Load Blown Southwest...just a raunchy vernacular for occlusion.

Believe me, if I saw something that changed my mind, I would derobe....hell, I was pretty optimistic as recently as last night, but I think we are running out of time to recapture the potential that this system once possesed for this area

I could easily see the SLP end up near the upper cape, but that doesn't change the fact that the mechanics to drive a very heavy snowfall are just not present, barring major wholesale changes that seem very unlikely at this lead. Not trying to be a debbie, but that is how I see it...and yes, my frustration with this season is oozing out into my posts.

Hopefully the deformation sets up over WMontpelier with a sharp cutoff to the east.

No issue with this at all...sounds reasonable. I just sold the big solutions.

That may help with the track and confluence, but you still have things occluding pretty far west. It would help, but its not a silver bullet.