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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was a great post....ever since you made that, I have noticed how modeling is aligning better for the maratimes and New Foundland.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like Will said....you have to look at it in terms of probability because even the less suppressive regimes can still screw the pooch with gradient saturation. Each situation is unique, and we refer to past analogs to formulate somewhat of a conceptionalization to guide expectations.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That last one looks like it would be more suppressive to me.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think some of that may be due to el nino seasons, which are more apt to produce down there when blocking is present because there is a more prominent STJ. La nina can be tougher even with blocking down there because its more n stream prevalent, which obvious better for NE.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's actually a good point...thinking back over some of the seasons, a lot of the early season RNA/-NAO patterns were kind of hostile south of NE.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Having one of the two favors NE..I didn't say NYC can't snow. Plus its more detrimental south of you.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    How was DEC 1970 for you? Feb 1969? Not very good......you need PNA and NAO...one or the other is better for NE.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    At least the GEFS trended colder for xmas eve.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyway, I have a feeling the GEFS mean will be less overbearing.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bite me
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty close to punting 12/23...looked worse.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Make up my mind on which direction I'm going to be bent over by a grizzly man in a grinch hat....north, or south? This morning you had me 50 and raining on xmas, now its cold and dry with feet in DC...
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I looked at KCON....little better than down here with lift closer to SGZ, but still not very good.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't really matter...1-3" would cover it.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Look at the sounding I posted from coolwx.com. Notice how that greater than 0c bubble of air shows up in the mid levels at 00z Sunday? Snow before that point is legit, any after that is the model's delusion.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't worry about that
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Better shot of Forky becoming a mod-.....oh, wait...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    You have to go sooooo high to get into that -12 to -18 happy zone Yea, my first call map sucked.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Taking a closer look at this...that warm layer in the mid levels moves in around 00z Sunday (7pm Saturday), at which point I have like 1-2" of snow....then the rest of the snow looks to come on the back end early Sunday AM, which is suspect to me. Not to mention this is all assuming 10:1 ratios. I think Kevin maybe right with the 1-3" up here.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    50 shades of belly tucking for photo ops
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its worse for the pike region, but actually a bit better by me....gradient tightening, like @MJO812 trying to fit into his uniform
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seriously, though...hyperbole on my part...not impossible, but pretty unlikely IMHO.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, if I said 15% chance, would it make you sleep better at night? What I was trying to convey to the semantics Nazis is that I am confident that will not take place.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is exactly my point....its not a perfect block, so yea....theoretically possible, but I feel pretty confident that we are not going to get a system to amplify west of us. I would stick with EPS over Euro OP right now.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    You also have some pretty good heights near Greenland, too, so I think the potential for that is measured.
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