40/70 Benchmark

No. I have my analog composites, but I'll begin writing it up before month's end.

The composite is a list of cold ENSO seasons that I have deemed as quality June through September national temp anomaly matches to this year...I have weighted a few more heavily than the others. You'll see shortly after Halloweenie, and if it doesn't make sense then, I'll answer all questions. I also have one for precip, which is more difficult IMHO, ACE and solar considerations.

I have that as an analog...it was also a very dry summer on the NE.

I think the climate division has distinct zones that they use to collect data.

There should be plenty of questions before I issue the outlook. I just like to leave something to the imagination...not only that, it allows me to fine tune the composite if need be. FWIW, I made that composite early in September and haven't had to tweak it yet. Precip map I have.

I wasn't planning on revealing until my outlook. You'll see in a few weeks.

My concurrent analogs turned out decent for September.

My issue is that you don't cite my forecasts as incorrect, you cite random posts that I have made in casual conversation. My forecasts are on my blog, which you have admitted you don't read. A normal person doesn't become so oppositional and critical of forecast content that they do not read. If you catch me lying about my blog results, by all means...let me know.

Even with respect to synoptic patterns, we often see transitions initially rushed. But I think this one will be on its way out rather quickly this season.

61.7 off of a low of 37.2.

Okay, lets aim for 12/10.

Hopefully Garth can do the 10th. I think that is about as close to the holidays as most would want to make this.

I am fine with a primary into the OV.

I'm not sure of the relevancy of that because we have yet to see the death of this 3 year event. This season we will. That said, it wouldn't shock me if the decay were a bit slower than modeled, since guidance tends to rush most changes. This event will erode rather rapidly, though IMO....we have also yet to see the intensification that we have been hearing about all fall with the weekly anomaly still at -0.8. We need to see weekly numbers well below -1 soon if we are indeed going to see anything more than a peak ONI greater than the weak/moderate threshold.

Which did you lose? I think we should do the one that you have available....either 12/3 or 12/10.

I'm not going to CT. ORH is fair enough.

Believe me, I don't always see eye to eye with him, but he's a good forecaster. I didn't say he's always been correct, but the past 5 years has favored the west on paper, for the most part.

True. Though I think 2010-2011 was decent down there, no?

Well, to be fair, we've had a warm ENSO that acted like a cold ENSO, a torch el nino and triple dip la nina. I think he is very good, but just acts like a complete jerk with some sort of personality disorder(s).

Neg NAO /RNA is a nice pattern

Neither of those look bad.

33.6 this AM

3.4 remained steady at -0.8 at of 10/5. This event is running out of time pretty quickly to even peak as a bonafide moderate event, especially if it decays as quickly as guidance suggests.

Go west, my friend.