40/70 Benchmark

CFS is actually frigid for Jan, Feb, and March. It was correctly very warm for Dec....

In others news, covid is contagious.

I think by mid month the pattern is shit...short window to work with the week of 1/7-14 and even then may need some luck. Latitude is best. I guess the hope is that we really pop a mid month PNA, like 2011.

My guess it is gets storm near the end of that first of January with all of the mass flux, but really going to need to thread the needle here in SNE due to the fact that the NAO block is gone as the RNA becomes less hostile.

La Nina. Spanish for "F U, little girl"

Maybe that's why its phase 8?

This.

I think sometimes when people often post what the majority doesn't want to hear, they can get labeled as a troll....but its important to not allow that emotion to turn the majority into the trolls. lol

I'm just writing up a review now...while certainly not frigid, I expected it to be near normal to perhaps seasonably cold....but yea, what really killed us was the compression between that stagnant RNA/NAO couplet. The warmth in and of itself was not prohibitive to at least near climo snowfall.

No sarcasm intended...just honestly trying to credit your overall conceptualization, which proved more correct than not.

It just seems common sense to me that an NAO block in conjunction with a record RNA pulse could do that, anyway....I mean, we have always had certain patterns more prone to compression. And what we do know is 1) HC didn't seem to constructively interfere with ENSO last year 2) It doesn't seem to be deconstructively interfering this year. Just some casual observations.

I think that is the one that may have some hope...just an educated guess, though.

Well, certainly ENSO events have always been more and less coupled with the atmosphere, which the MEI attempts to quantify. It was always apparent that this particular cool ENSO event was very well coupled, as opposed to least year's event. I buy into what you are saying to a degree, but you do seem to kind of find a way to attribute everything to the HC. For instance, last year the la nina didn't act like a la nina because the HC nullifies ENSO...but this year, its constructively interfering with ENSO. Just seems a bit nebulous and perhaps overstated to me. Not trying to be a dick...I get that this is a novel concept.

I think the record RNA played a large role, though I'm sure the HC acted as a source of constructive interference for the deconstructive interference lol

Even though they like to troll and bust balls a lot, I think its only fair to give credit to the guys like @qg_omega, @forkyforkand @Torch Tiger this month. I feel like it would be hypocritical not to because at the end of the day, their slew of warm graphics ended up more right than wrong this month. Kudos, and I stand corrected with respect to December. That said, I still feel better times are ahead later this season. We'll see.

If you go on Cosgrove's site, pull up his forecast from last season....it was very good.

Kind of like the inverse of my 2014-2015 season, in which I nailed sensible weather, but misdiagnosed the arctic. Still early, though.

Kind of right for the wrong reason...I don't think he expected the blocking.

That was a great winter....even with the huge February warm spell.

Larry has done very well past couple of years....DT has been awful. Honestly, Cosgrove absolutely nailed last winter.

SBD patterns....silent but deadly assassins.

The worst pattern imaginable is a pattern that isn't ostensibly bad enough to be alarming, but ends up bad.

.....And I think all of us would have taken that. its a catch 22....going into it, you say "hey, the pattern is not awful, we'll have our chances..I'll take it", but if said chances go belly up, you want out and can't get out.

He usually likes or replies to every response on his FB updates...on the last one, I said "seems like the favorable stretch for the NE is getting pushed back", and he never touched it. lol

He has been backing away from the favorable period post holidays in the NE without acknowledging that he's doing so...that aggravates me.