40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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UPDATE: I wasn't surprised-
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I'd post the H5 chart....2m charts aren't as accurate and will often be biased warm.
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Well, by consensus, I was just referring to the seasonal guidance posted...not forecasters. Cosgrove is on this stormy train that you are alluding to.....he thinks its going to be very stormy, like 92-93 and 93-94 with a big STJ. I think @raindancewx is in that camp, too, but he has a very mild outlook in the east. Cosgrove is cold with a negative AO/NAO.
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.76" prior to midnight, .57" since midnight for a total of 1.33"....still raining fairly heavily.
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WILD!!!
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.76" and pouring as of midnight. 63.1
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Winter is saved for you.
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Yea, I would say the overall consensus there is neg EPO/PNA and slight negative NAO.
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I don't make long term tropical predictions...that was actually Cosgrove and Raindance.
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I think these were next up in @snowman19's queue of tweets to quote...lol
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Nah, I know that was the holy grail there.
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Yea, looks like probably a signal for some higher Greenland heights, but tough to infer too much from those MSLP maps.
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Oh, sorry. ACE is just Accumulated Cyclone Energy...its a measure of the energy emitted by tropical systems. Solar just refers to current position in the solar cycle...ie, we are currently ascending into solar cycle 25, so you want to consider other seasons that were also ascending. This will all be explained.
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Cosgrove is all in on a -AO/NAO.
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I remember the pattern during the fall of 2006 was awesome, then you came out with your infamous "warmest winter on record" thread, and sure enough, it went to shit.
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This is why la nina is usually front loaded.
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My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
40/70 Benchmark replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Great work and presentation, as always. I was a bit surprised to see your final map with +5+ on the east coast because it didn't appear that warm in the aggregate.....but you did say "locally". Good luck with it. -
99/100 times its nothing noteworthy where I am, so my MO is to not waste any time or energy on it and if I am surprised, then so be it.
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Hopefully we can tear the 'ole Naval Air Station down in South Weymouth.
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Hopefully it stays east of me. Maine can keep the power disruptions.
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I had about normal snow that season, though it was rather mild. It was a weaker la nina and more of a modoki.
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@512highWhat are you confused about?
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I have it as one of my more heavily weighted temp analogs.
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No. I have my analog composites, but I'll begin writing it up before month's end.
