40/70 Benchmark

I don't dispute GW warming at all, but avoiding snowfall entirely at this latitude is a long way off.

I don't live on the cape and I'll be dead by then, anyway, so my personal sentiment has nothing to do with it. The concept is just absurd.

Here is my Final Call: Weekend Mixed Bag to Supply White Christmas for Portion of Area: Final Call Situational Synopsis: The larger scale synoptics of this weekend's storm system remained largely unchanged from that which was discussed in Wednesday's First Call, however, the storm system now looks to track slightly closer to the region, which means that warmer air in the mid levels of the atmosphere will advance farther north into the region. This means that while a white Christmas remains possible across the northern portion of the region, it is now much less likely across the vast majority of the area than it appeared on Wednesday. What has not changed is that seasonably colder air still looks to advect into the region ahead of the storm during the day on Saturday. This sets the stage for a complicated forecast because at the same time colder air is being drawn in from the north, the storm is forecast to ultimately draw close enough to the air to begin to counter this advance of colder air, especially in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This could lead to a myriad of precipitation type issues. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Colder air at all levels of the atmosphere is forecast to be seeping southward beginning early on Saturday morning in advance of the onset of any precipitation across the region, around midday west, and late afternoon east. The bulk of the precipitation will fall Saturday evening through midnight. This could cause the leading edge of the rainfall to change to sleet and freezing rain across northern Connecticut and Rhode Island, and sleet an snowfall across interior southeastern Mass. However, as the mid level area of low pressure approaches and passes to the north of the area during the peak of the storm Saturday evening, warmer mid level air will begin to advect northward again. 1pm Saturday Earlier during the week, when First Call was released, it looked as though several inches could accumulate as far south as the Mass pike region before any mix and transition occurred. However, since that time it has not only become apparent that the storm would track closer, which allows mid level warmth to advance northward more liberally. But it has also become clear the meager dynamics with this system would also be a mitigating factor with respect to this initial burst of snow, which now looks to limit snowfall in the pike region to just an inch or two before the arrival of mixed precipitation. Note the sounding above for Lawrence, MA in the Merrimack Valley, a locale that was originally anticipated to receive several inches of snowfall. In this case, since warmer air is advancing north, it is imperative for snowfall to accumulate efficiently since there is a limited window of time in which it will fall, especially with the further north track. Ordinarily in order to forecast rapidly accumulating snowfall, the forecaster must be confident that not only snowfall will be heavy, but the flakes will be able to develop into well formed dendrite crystals, which in conjunction with heavy fall rates aid in rapid accumulations. There are a specific set of criteria that need to be met for this to take place. First of all, the snow flakes need to develop within the maximum snow growth zone, which consists of temperatures between about -12c and -18c at approximately the 700mb level of the atmosphere. Secondly, this area needs to be co located with the lift (OMEGA) that creates the moisture necessary to facilitate the development of well formed dendrites. The first issue in the above sounding is that the atmospheric column remains so warm that the snow growth temperature range of between -12c and -18c is found all the way up at 500mb, which is well above the maximum lift (OMEGA) found down at the 700mb level. This means that the snowflakes are going to be developing well below the optimal temperature range. Thus given that the lift is generated in warmer than ideal temperatures at a lower level of the atmosphere, snowfall will likely consist of snow grains, as opposed to well formed flakes (dendrites), which means that they will not accumulate proficiently or rapidly in the short amount of time that the precipitation is in fact snowfall. This inferior snow growth also means that the advancing mid level warmth will encounter even less resistance via evaporative cooling. This is also evidenced in the annotation above, as there is a warm sliver of air arriving in the mid levels of the atmosphere by the time steadier precipitation arrives around 7pm in Lawrence. Further to the south in the Mass pike region, sleet is already mixing in as early as 4pm. 4pm Saturday The image below illustrates the sleet reaching the route 2 corridor, including the Merrimack valley by 7pm, at which point the transition to plain rainfall is occurring along the south coast and south shore of Mass. 7pm While it is possible the mid level warmth encounters a little more resistance in the Merrimack Valley of northeastern Mass, the sleet should have reached well into southern New Hampshire by mid to late evening. Rainfall is likely over the vast majority of the region south of the Mass Pike by this point, with the possible exception of some higher terrain. It should also be raining near the coast inside of route 128 in the Boston area. 10pm Saturday The area of low pressure should be making its closest approach around or shortly after midnight, which will also be the warmest point of the storm. Rain should be prevalent south of the pike with possible exception of the highest terrain in the Berkshires and hills of NW Connecticut. 1am Sunday Snow and mixed precipitation should began collapsing back to the coast with the approach of dawn on Sunday, as the low moves away and pulls the colder air back in its wake. 4am Sunday The precipitation may end as a period of light snow or flurries to the coast around sunrise on Sunday with seasonably cold airmass remaining in place throughout the day as skies clear. 7am Sunday Final Call:

I mean, I don't want 60...but 43? NBD if there is no snow to preserve.

I couldn't care less if its in the 40s on xmas with no snowpack or storms...who cares.

It is..what is your point?

The last several pages summarized the fact that not much snow is expected in SNE...I'm not sure how you missed that.

You are being heckled because the notion of any locale in Mass being shut out with respect to seasonal snowfall within the next century is asinine. No one is rebuking the idea of GW in an of itself.

Get some met students to weenie tag your corpse once it snows that winter.

Deal. When he gets old enough to understand, I'll instruct my son to dig you up and collect on his 79th bday.

Yea, I would have been at peace with it on Monday if I lived there lol

Yes, and they never fell for it when it dropped far to the south. I am sure you are also right about low level cold hanging tough....just the mid levels that go to crap. I'm not suicidal lol Just frustrating because I knew right after I released the first map it was too aggressive, but anyway, I learned a lot today about what to look for in order to use soundings more effectively, so not a loss at all. Messing up his how we learn.

Long term still looks fine..just frustrated over tmw. Should have seen that coming, so rough start to the year for me. Even Kev was all over that

That is off IMO...gives KCON like 2"

NAM gives me like 1.5". Will and Scott nailed this trend days ago. Kudos.

21 pages for a patch of black ice on top of hairy hog hill

Yay...Boooiiiinnnnggggg...Santa's sleigh will see clean pavement before skidding into the Merrimack upon landing.

2018-2019 facing the south, 2019-2020 facing the east, last year facing the north, now facing the south again.

It just never fails here....I'm in mother nature's turnstile bending over in every direction...last year facing the north, this year the south with not a tube of lube for as far as they eye can see.

I'm so sick of this event.

Great

You were def right for the most part.....anything over 3" is looking like a longshot here now. I def jumped the gun on Wednesday....once I really checked soundings and everything.

You guys see the UK ensemble got added to F5? lol I'm excited to announce we have acquired another model, the MOGREPS-G! MOGREPS is an Ensemble based off of the UKMET/Unified Model (UM) from Met Office. It is available under the 'Models' menu for pro users. MOGREPS maps are limited, but it does have a nice radar product, temperatures, winds, dew points, humidity, pressure and SBCAPE/CIN maps. MOGREPS is a 20km resolution, 198 hour, 18 member mean. It initializes with 4D-Var assimilation and has 70 vertical levels. Our MOGREPS maps are available from 12z and 00z runs and update roughly around 19:30z and 07:30z respectively.

I still think my area is likely to get more than an inch.

Yes....