40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Yea, things won't be really ironed out til 12z Wed. -
I feel like I have next to zero shot of getting the deformation this far se, so I am all in on getting the cf inland enough to keep a relatively high floor should precip type issues remain largely se.
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Seems like the EPS tracks the low near scooter
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Yea, I'll take it...I'd rather contend with a precip type issue threat than a subsidence risk.
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April in latter December-early January...I haven't seen the sun since Monday...going to be a week lol
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Speed as a player with respect to totals is vastly overrated. People focus on that too much. Given that the NAO is gone, I will take "progressive".
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You could have also emboldened "chances"
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All you need is 8-12 hours for big totals if you have dynamics.
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Yea, I'm just speaking in hypotheticals...obviously not literally talking mesoscale on a day 5 map.
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Despite what the snow maps say, I would actually prefer the 00z run.....the CF would get nearby and without that, I am depending on deformation and I think that will miss north. Getting way ahead, but I'll take the lower ceiling/higher floor of having this track closer and not getting into that subby zone. I live in an area that is very prone to subsidence in the absence of mid level deformation bc I am often just far enough from the low level forcing near the shore.
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Trend from 12z was slightly more robust with that energy, so it a bit further north and faster developing.
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Looks to me like this is all N stream, which is perfectly fine by me....its actually amplifying on approach for once. Northeast may be best here, as it tries to close off over head. 00z Wed should largely tell the tale, as that is when the energy comes ashore.....def by 12z Wednesday.
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Yea, not worried about it. I was looking at kuchera map that someone posted, which can be stingy in marginal setups, but it's actually about 8" here. 4-5"ish for you.
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Euro is mainly rain for Boston, gives me a few inches.
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How many times are we going to go through this? The vast majority of death bands occur in "progressive" systems...not the decaying carcuses that rot in place. This could have alot going for it in that respect, but I would like to get a better idea of antecedent airmass. Not to sound like George, but there is alot of latent baroclinic energy offshore right now.
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At this range, just assume 10:1, buts once within a day or two, check to see if max lift is centered in the 12-18c snow growth zone, which will ideally be around H7 and fully saturated.
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RATIOS HAVE LITTLE TO DO WITH TEMPS.
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Yea, no complaints.
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You are both are correct in a way...this event is a significantly more prominent driver in the atmosphere than ONI would imply. But I also wince when people cite daily readings....weekly is worth following....
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Don't mind seeing OP GFS suppressed right now.
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I really don't care about it. I'm not. This isn't PD I....its like a 4-8" deal.
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In certain respects...
