40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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The the EURO will get a little noisy to the east again -
We always think that every run on all of the models, then the PV plops onto your face at the 11th hour.
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Just get nude and prance around your hill
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January 4, 2018 was like that around here...broke the '78 record for tide, but it was "only" around a foot of snow because it was occluded and LBSW.
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There is a reason why Atlanta, GA hasn't seen a foot of snow in 29 years, despite the long range euro closing H5 down there like 3 times a month
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Unless the phase is over Albany, those are like death and taxes....lock those bitches in...fitted phase like a glove.
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These are the changes I have been preaching about over the past several days....models always view phases with beer googles until you get to like legit 12 hours out, and sometimes never really view it correctly. Exceedingly rare to phase as proficiently as modeled....this is why I kept selling the early capture crap and saying it would tick NE. Folks kept telling me the earlier capture made sense synoptically, and I was just like ..."wait for it".
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It seemed to me like we were knocking on that door again...then the 00z euro wobbled east a tic, which was fine....but I didn't like 06z doing it again. I hope this isn't a trend of chasing that convective crap. I would love to see 12z and just a tic back west....lets just change the frequency of this "noise".
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I get it, but huge shifts aren't necessary to pork a lot of us. Down there, the storm has granted you weenie immunity, so I get why you breathe easier (pretending you care)
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Well, its played the same song for the past two cycles, I'd like a different sound track for 12z.
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No way. Its the people like me, who are dependent on the mid levels, that need to worry about that. Down there near the coastal front is going to get slammed with fronto from surface through H850. Now, when I say getting caught between bands...this isn't going to be Boxing day because it isn't occluded, but it can mean the difference between like 14" and 20".
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Keeps trending east from 18z yesterday
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Yes. Not greatest settled depth storm. ....I think that was either Feb 2013, or April 1997. ..
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It's based more on mid levels, unlike kuchie.
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Yes. I'm not getting into the measurement methodology debate again, but that is the difference.
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I got 31", but BOX ended up tossing it because my max depth was only 25"......I mean, when you are snowing at like 4-5"/hr of absolute fluff for several hours, that is what happens. The measurement was accurate...I wiped and cleared every 6 hours. It was like lake effect...just sublimated and compacted so quickly.
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This looks a lot like March 14, 2018....the one that ripped me a new one.
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Yea, clown map shaved me from 19" to 13", but that was a better run for me TBH....I'd have over 20" there.
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That run is a death band from Union, CT to ORH to MBY
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You think that confluence pressing will make for a huge band with sharp gradient?
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QPF cut back significantly for me, but increased a bit over se MA. I think that would place one hell of a deform band over me
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NBD....goal posts should be EURO to UK.
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Wonder if that confluence pressing down may enhance that death band on the NW edge....with a huge gradient between haves and have nots.
