40/70 Benchmark

And blows.

I mean, the UK is still like 10" here...I have no reason to impugn it out of bias, or some neurotic tendency...I'm simply confident that its too cold in the mid levels. If others disagree, fine.....but its pretty childish to claim someone has a psychological disorder because they disagree with you.

NOAA must be neurotic.

But the UK is right. Got it.

I had .54" as of midnight....will have to check again when I get home.

If you want the fog bank off of the British Isles modeled with surgical precision, then its your weapon of choice.

It was after the blizzard....the early Feb deal. I had 2" of sleet.

Its not reckless. The UK is wrong.

75%

There will probably be a some sleet, Phil, but it should be pretty inconsequential.

My thoughts haven't strayed too much from Sunday. I will obviously tweak things tomorrow, but this is one of the easiest forecasts that I can recall in a long time. I will probably add some mention of ice in there. Welcome change in the midst of a season that has been a real PIA.

Sorry to hear, Luke. Glad you are okay.

I agree.

Mostly the latter this season.

I'd love a 50/50 compromise between EURO and NAM.

I haven't really looked yet, but I would focus more on ensembles for several more days.

Here were my thoughts with respect to March from last November: March 2022 Outlook March Analogs: 1956 (x2), 1984, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018 (x2), 1975, 2011 The first half of March should be blocky with an improving Pacific. The month should feature both Miller A & B cyclogenesis, as there are signs that the subtropical jet may enter the scene in addition to the active northern stream. This could be a very volatile set up with immense storm potential should the two streams phase. There is a relatively strong chance of a KU magnitude event between March 1st and 15th. The failure risk is that the SSW does not materialize, which could alter the forecast dramatically. Monthly departures anywhere from 1-3 degrees below average with the coldest across the interior and above average snowfall from the mid atlantic into New England. This should be a very active east coast pattern rivaling that of March 2018 and 2001, though with perhaps more southern stream involvement. The pattern may rapidly break down later in the month with an early spring to reward beleaguered residents of the northeast if the vortex does indeed weaken a bit earlier than the Euro guidance suggests, as forecast by Eastern Mass Weather. This March forecast, again, is contingent upon the development of high latitude blocking, and the risk is for a warmer outcome should that not occur. or be delayed, as the European guidance hints at. Obviously the glaring error is with respect to the polar domain, as it appears as though the uptick in solar activity was enough to derail that. However, clearly the poleward Pacific ridging still holds the potential to deliver during that originally highlighted March 1-15 window.

I get that....but that is more a factor for ORH....I only have two insanely above average seasons, 04-05 is offset by 11-12. I will crunch the numbers when I can. Like I said, I am sure I am a bit above average due to 2014-2015, but its nothing outlandish.

Yea, from me and up through MHT, CON are pretty much in the same pork zone this year.

This is why I make fun of Scooter with all of the regression crap.....I'm sure 04-05 and 14-15 skew the actual 22 year mean upwards, but its not as extreme as he thinks just off of the coast.

Yes. 01-02, 03-04, 05-06, 06-07, 09-10, 11-12, 15-16, 16-17 (very close to normal), 18-19, 19-20, 20-21, 21-22 (in progress)

I've had 12.....wasn't bad until these past 4 consecutive, assuming I don't reach normal this year.

What was you max depth with that? Did you actually measure a 34" depth?