40/70 Benchmark

I agree since the model consensus has been for a OND ONI peak since like last spring.

Hope not.

I think everyone understands that an identical pattern wouldn't be as cold....however, an identical pattern also would probably produce larger storms with more moisture.

I do buy this potentially having something to so with CC.....also plays into why the more "feast of famine" dynamic in terms of snowfall.....tougher to get great NAO blocks, but when we get them, some of these storms are just savage.

He's usually in the main ENSO thread.

Yea, OND should be the peak....just below super ONI.

I have noticed that Larry has referenced regarding the NAO....deeply negative seasons seem to occur less frequently.

Omega brings nothing to the table....just a troll. @snowman19 I like....little biased with his data presentation, but a lot of us are....at least he adds something.

Get a serviceable month of December in a strong el Nino, and you take it and run.

I will not surprised if we look back on it fondly given some fortuitous timing, which should happen sooner or later....especially with all of the energy available around the globe right now.

Yes, this is what I am skeptical of....eventually it may happen, but I am just not ready to conclude that we are there like Bluewave seems to be. Maybe, but need more time and data. I wasn't arguing that going above average in the DM mean isn't a fairly safe bet.

December will be mild, but I don't see being like a 2006, 2015 "turn out the lights, game over" type of anomaly....it should be a serviceable month.

I think he's related to raindance.

Its a very good analog.

Well, to be clear, I am not arguing against a warmer than average winter....that isn't what I was referring to with the persistence. Again, I do not debate that the climate is warming. What is dubious to me is all of the inferences with respect to the global patterns and the idea that they are going to become fixed in place. But it is feasible that they will...my contention is that in the past they have not, so we need more time in order to definitively conclude that they will.

Glorified version of persistence forecasting. It will work until it doesn't.

I don't expect anyone to change their stance at this stage. But the fact is that if this goes on to act like a super canonical el Nini event after a SO MEI of .3, then it will be a first.

Hey, I'll end up about 15mi SE of the bad snow.

This is what has been forecast all along.

No one can definitively conclude that any of these regime changes are, or are not permanent at this time because we simply do not have enough data...period. We can come up with scientifically valid ideologies that make sense, theoretically speaking, but we won't know for years whether they are right of wrong. But the smart money is on them not being permanent, just as all of the theories on "permanent" changes before them. All we know for certain is that the planet is warming. The onus is on folks to prove that these changes are in fact permanent and that will take many more years. The onus is not on others to prove that the changes are not permanent.

Ignorance is bliss, I guess.

CFS almost looks a bit 12/07ish in Janauary...crappy pattern, but the vortex is really protruding southward.

Nope....I'll board my family on the next space shuttle to a galaxy far, far away because it will be clear that we are all imminently doomed.

You can find a way to connect anything you would like to the variable of choice...this is why we still have seasoned professionals arguing that we are on the verge of a canonical super el Nino event as we approach December. All I know is I predicted that Feb SSW and March pattern month 4 months in advance using the March 2001 analog. There is zero question in my mind that the next time we get a several year stretch of reduced winter time se ridge prominence, you will connect that to CC, as well. Someone will write a study concluding that and you will be there to quote it.

I'm with you on this, but we'll always have the CC zealots kicking the can on permanence until they are eventually right.