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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went a little warmer than this composite implies...I have been trying to do that more because the composite maps of old analogs just aren't representative anymore.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll get the actual final F departures when those maps are ready...the seasonal forecast isn't graded until May.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    It still definitely matters with oceans warming and all, but not as much as one may think.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Check the January thread.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, by far the largest impact of GW is the ability radiate during winter nights.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was definitely a little warmer than I expected, but not like December...and otherwise the month largely evolved as anticipated.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    GW is definitely real and anthropogenic to some degree, but the thing is the majority of it manifests nocturnaly during the cold season. Yes, it is absolutely causing more frequent positive departures during the day, but it's often resulting in situations in which we register large mean monthly anomalies despite a relative to dearth of really warm daytime hours. January 2021 was another great example.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I said that there wasn't "exotic" warmth near the coast of SNE. Enough with the spinning BS. Tough to justify getting more then 5PPD when you waste them on this sophomoric shit....yea, please, pretty please give us more of this.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I said it wasn't obscenely warm where I live.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I read your outlook, which is why I gave you credit for it...I said "NE"...not mid Atlantic.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we will get some arctic air in mid February.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it has something to do with the EPO/WPO, which has been pretty hostile this year. Raindance did well with that, too.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    12z locks the cold on the other side of the globe again.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    This January actually reminded me a bit of last January with the Pacific ridge leading to a western biased +PNA, which acted as a deep RNA. Does that look like a +PNA....becuase it was.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Take note of how biased the MJO route penduluum has been in favor of the right hand side...that is not by chance.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, December partially sucked because of strong El Nino.....not really January.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is it crazy to see how this ends up in phase 3, 4 or 5 right as February ends?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I honestly just debating about very extended lead...nothing more or less.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    It is to a degree.....this is why the forcing has been biased so far west relative to the max SST anomalies....why December was warm and why January looked like a La Nina. And yes, the PAC jet extension made December more extreme, agreed. But there is no denying there is residual cool ENSO GLAAM....this El Nino has some La Nina DNA cooked into it.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see....hopefully I am wrong. ...its roughly a two week+ window IMO, then winter is over and out-
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    The structure of the Pacific dipole still favors a predisposition towards the MC and often times that really extended guidance will adjust to account for that at shorter leads.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't underestimate the ability of this El Nino to end up in the MC at least excuse imaginable.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can see the MJO reemerging in the MC continent, which adds up with my analog composite.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see it run some into March, but I think the 10th is pushing it....
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