40/70 Benchmark

Yea..its not very stable at long lead times.

It does make me nervous because he is a very good seasonal forecaster, but I can tell you right now this isn't going to end up as east based as 1972 was....and like last season, we also had some tough breaks that year. It wasn't event that warm. At the end of the day, we all bring something to the table and I have learned a lot from raindance. Incorporating precip and temp matches like he does to complement the ENSO work that I do has really helped. But I feel like the devil was in the details last winter....at the end of the day, paltry snowfall was the way to go for the east coast, but most seasonal forecasters that went in that direction also had very little blocking, which wasn't accurate.

We aren't. No way..I have said that dating back to last winter. There is a certain periodicity to those highest magnitude el nino events and we just had one 8 years ago. Historically speaking, usually coming out of a protracted period of cold ENSO we see a healthy basin wide or modoki event. Obviously a modoki event is pretty farfetched considering how biased to the east we have begun, but this isn't going to be east-based.

Another .57" on Tuesday.

Look at my latest blog...that matches my basin wide, mod-strong el nino composite forcing perfectly.

Yea, the SST configuration in June is completely and utterly irrelevant as it pertains to winter. Not only can it change, at the end of the day, the forcing is all that matters. If that remains west, no one will care how warm nino 1.2 is.

Its been a semi permanent configuration for several years...really going back to 2016, following the super el nino....that is why we had maritime-nina forcing during the 2018 el nino. I don't think we are going to see east based forcing.

It began as east based and shifted.....it was always more central focused, though. Not sure what Huges is talking about...wasn't east.

1957-1958 was east based? Not in my book. Let this one mimic that event.....I would take it.

2.37" since Saturday...getting nailed every day.

1.44" today...insane downpours.

That sounds cool...

Basin wide.

I guess my point is that basin wide/modoki is preferred over east based.

I would not want to take my chances with a healthy east-based el nino.

Not necessarily...especially in the mid Atlantic, where one storm can make a season. All of that warmth must raise the stakes in terms of storm potential....especially if we get any type of baroclinicity at all.

Nah.....lol Defining El Niño indices in a warming climate - IOPscience

Yea, I think the RONI attempts to address this.

Not necessarily if that gap between RONI and ONI remains large. If you read my blog, you will see that the super nino years had RONI numbers between like .4 and .6 already...we are still in negative territory...similar to 1986 and 2009. Warmer than average probably, sure.

Definitely not outlandish. We will see....and I agree, while it could end up biased slightly west as a basin wide deal, a traditional modoki is very unlikely. But a westward leaning basin-wide deal like 1957-1958, 1986-1987 or 1965-1966 is very possible. I think that the polar domain will make or break or break this season. If you look at your favorite winter seasons from that composite, 1991-1992, 1994-1995 and 2006-2007 all had a very strong PV, even though the latter two weakened late. I don't think we will see a repeat of last season with the fruitless NAO. A reoccurrence of that caliber of blocking next season would yield much different results.

2004-2005 and 2009-2010 were actually barely negative...never would have guessed that.

I wonder how many good el nino seasons we have had with a -PDO? Off the top of my head, 1968-1969 and maybe 1963-1964? I don't think 1965-1966 was....or 1957-1958. EDIT: 1965-1966 was actually slightly negative...1963-1964 and 1957-1958 were positive.

Keep in mind that I don't necessarily mean that we are due for a 100" season....but rather a reprieve from the significant snowfall deficits that have plagued my area (I know other areas have had better fortune) for 5 consecutive seasons...even if it's just one normal year and then back into the toilet.

Yes, if it's right. June Jamestec guidance trended east a bit. Last year, guidance was forecasting la nina to remain east based as late as November and of course it rapidly went modoki for winter.

Well, I didn't rule anything out...stronger basin-wide events have a wide range of outcomes.