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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    So you agree a somewhat colder version of 2015-2016 is reasonable?
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, same page, I don't need convincing that this el nino will eventually couple...my thoughts have been consistent on a strong ONI peak rather than intense/super.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shows why the event has been migrating westward, with the WWB confined to about 140 longitude points westward.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Look to me like one in which development has stagnated as it slowly migrates westward. But I'm sure the IOD, MJO and everything else under the sun are conspiring to change that as we speak.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Most events fall somewhere in between, including 2015-2016... he's right about that.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    That makes sense to me as far as where I expect this event to end up...weaker than the first two, but more impressive than the second group...perhaps a touch stronger than 2009-2010.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like the PDO will win out early in the season, and the el nino more as time wears on.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Congrats!
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think there is some value in them as analogs, but not simply as a copy-paste, rip-read incarnate, no.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    We clearly disagree. I have gone over why ad nauseam. Fruitless at this stage to rehash it.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like maybe some Miller B east in there bc it's not as dry over e NE...nod to my idea of active N stream and S stream.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    If I'm not mistaken, a lot of people have mentioned 2009 as a good analog....even Raindance himself.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even up here decent months of December are sporadic
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still doesn't look awful for December, but anything then is gravy.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the December change better aligns with my thoughts.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    100%. Great post.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one doubted it would recover in short order, otherwise it would peak at moderate ONI, which no one thought was possible since early last spring.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    .30"
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I tend to use large data sets in my composites, which is why the anomalies often seem toned down...but same general idea.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    2009 isn't an east-based el nino, but agree its a decent analog. Here is my blend for September...there are plenty of more modest ENSO matches in there.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sounds wild, to be sure
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't think of a physical reason, aside from maybe the unfavorable Pacific not allowing the s stream to amplify enough to run the orgy all the way up the coast.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The ONI belies the true nature of this el nino event because its an archaic metric. This is why I bombed operating under the premise of a modest el nino a few years back when in fact there was no el nino.
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