40/70 Benchmark

Agree.

How did your NAO formula do last year?

Totally agree....2002-2003 isn't that far off in terms of modoki from what the Jamstec predicts, but I certainly don't expect that type of PDO. I like 1994-1995 best from that group, but solar and QBO are off with that year. 2009-2010 is def. modoki and not a good analog, but I consider 1957 and 1965 more basin wide......1965 is pretty good in terms of solar, PDO and QBO, but probably not as good as 1991, which seems best all around. 1957 is off with the QBO and has the same PDO issue, but is decent for solar.

Everyone is convinced of an el Nino, but the same people that wanted it last year would just assume not have it mature by mid summer.

Well, I'm not sure which meteorologists still use it as such and why, since we now know 3.4 is most crucial for coupling.

I have never heard of this.

7.33" on the month.

1.44" today

I don't think el nino is telling us very much this season. Winter 2023-2024 Unlikely to be Decided by ENSO | Eastern Mass Weather

Interesting how far west the forcing was in 1995, and it still managed to be a brutal winter with very little blocking....I have a theory why and may be relevant this year.

I agree, but I am pretty confident that this goes basin-wide....which really just means that the pattern would be a little less prohibitive to blocking than it would be with an east based event. However, there are certainly basin-wide events that have gone in that direction (very little blocking).

Pretty trivial adjustments, as with respect to the EMI....from 1.67 in May, to 1.76 in June and now 1.81 in July. We have gone from 1.7 to 1.8 from May to July....I know that wouldn't alter my seasonal forecast- Still think 2.0 ONI is the ceiling.

Looks like JAMSTEC has it shifting westward a hair more aggressively, but mostly noise....main takeaway is the east trend stopped. June May

During the stronger, canonical events, the Aleutian low is very prominent and tucked in tight to the coast of the PNW, so that there is a stronger PAC jet....during the weaker events that are focused more to the west, that low is more meager and further off of the coast.

I use the MEI....factors in to my intensity classification.

Was their a volcanic eruption in the early 70s?

That season is a pretty good match in terms of where guidance place the forcing, too....maybe just a hair east that season.

In terms of factoring in the eruption, 92-93 is probably of more relevance given how long ago it occured....that season was even more +AO. New England lucked out that year because the PV was so elongated, kind of like 2007-2008.

Perfectly feasible outcome given where seasonals are placing the forcing, which makes sense assuming the W PAC stay so anomalously warm.

Yes, this is a totally fair point. Agreed.

These look modoki?

First of all, we can agree to disagree on that, as I view it as more central based/basin-wide....I view modoki as heavily biased west of 150*W. Secondly, as I have said, you are too preoccupied with SSTs and not focusing enough on the convection, which is why the "east-based" analog of 1925-1926 ended up in the manner that it did.